Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...MONTANA...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening across parts of Montana, the Desert Southwest, and New England. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm area has been trimmed across New England, but no changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas. Uncertainty remains regarding potential for substantial redevelopment of deep convection across New England, but isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if any stronger storms can be sustained. Storms capable of producing localized severe gusts remain possible later this afternoon into this evening across parts of MT and the Southwest. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2013 regarding the near-term threat across Montana. ..Dean.. 08/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023/ ...MT... Despite lingering mid-level clouds tempering insolation to some extent, surface temperatures should still heat into the 90s across eastern MT by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent attendant to a shortwave trough tracking east from southern BC to the lee of the Canadian Rockies should largely hold north of the international border. But low-level speed convergence should increase this evening along a trailing surface cold front and this may aid in sustaining isolated thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southwest MT. While MLCAPE should remain meager (at or below 500 J/kg), very deeply mixed profiles east of the terrain will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts. ...Desert Southwest.... Weak deep-layer shear will be the primary limiting factor to a more organized severe wind threat, with mainly 15-25 kt 500-mb southerlies between a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Plains and a cutoff low off the southern CA coast. Scattered thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain, aided by a high PW air mass emanating north from the Gulf of CA, will pose a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts as they spread/collide northward within the deeply mixed environment across the lower deserts. ...New England... In the wake of this morning's tornadic supercell, low-level winds have substantially veered and weakened ahead of a north to south-oriented cold front pushing east into western New England. With a wedge of greater insolation between it and cloud cover associated with the early-day convection that is now largely off the coast, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg should redevelop over the next few hours and support deepening convection along the front. While adequate deep-layer shear will remain, the increasingly poor low-level wind fields should mitigate an organized damaging wind threat. Still, a few strong gusts remain possible until the front reaches the coast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The main change to this outlook was to add an isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of northern California into southern and central Oregon. The latest guidance consensus depicts an appreciable risk for at least a few dry thunderstorms, where fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Plains, moderate low/mid-level east-southeasterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central into west TX. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will support 15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds. These winds, combined with 100+ deg surface temperatures and around 15 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of central and west TX (where fuels are critically dry). Farther northwest, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across parts of southern OR, as a series of midlevel shortwave troughs cross the region. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles could limit rainfall accumulations, though slow storm motions and PW near 0.75 inches cast uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 17 21:41:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 17 21:41:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will primarily be focused on the western periphery of tropical moisture moving northward in association with now Hurricane Hillary. Additional concerns may also develop as winds increase over very dry fuels in parts of Texas. ...West Texas... The proximity of Hurricane Hillary to the Baja Peninsula is expected to have some effect on the surface pressure gradient for the Southwest and perhaps into the southern High Plains. With hot temperatures expected on preceding days, already very dry fuels in western/central Texas will dry further. Given the increase in wind fields expected and the state of fuels, concern for elevated to near-critical fire weather is evident on Saturday and Sunday. ...Thunderstorms... Models differ in the speed of northward moisture transport along with now Hurricane Hillary. The GFS is the more aggressive of the two models and shows cloud cover/cooler temperatures into northern California and the Northwest this weekend. The ECMWF shows more potential for heating. With some lingering mid-level moisture, isolated thunderstorms could develop in parts of northern California into Oregon. Uncertainty remains high, however. The main push of tropical moisture is currently forecast to primarily impact western and central portions of the Great Basin. With a weak trough forecast to remain off the northern California coast there is at least a low conditional probability of thunderstorms for northern California and perhaps parts of the Northwest late this weekend into early next week. Potential will be contingent upon how fuels respond to any cooler/wetter conditions as well as cloud cover on the western flank of the tropical system. ..Wendt.. 08/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND ALSO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible late this afternoon across parts of the central/southern Great Lakes region, and later tonight over parts of the Northeast. ...IL/IN/OH/MI... The Marginal Risk has been trimmed slightly from the west across northeast IL, to account for the progression of the cold front. Otherwise, the previous outlook reasoning remains valid. A few strong storms may develop as the cold front moves eastward, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging winds. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...PA/NJ/NY... The 5% wind and 2% tornado probabilities have been expanded slightly eastward, to account for the potential progression of overnight convection through the end of the period. Wind profiles will be favorable for organized convection in the vicinity of a warm front, as storms develop late tonight across eastern PA. The magnitude of the severe threat remains uncertain due to limited instability, but locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible as storms move eastward toward southern New England by Friday morning. ..Dean.. 08/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023/ ...IN/OH/Lower MI... A large and progressive upper trough is moving across the central Great Lakes region today, with an associated surface cold front digging southeastward across northern IL. A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms extends from central IL into lower MI, and is situated along the axis of the low-level jet. This precipitation will significantly limit daytime heating for much of the day ahead of the front and preclude a more organized severe threat. Nevertheless, a consensus of 12z CAM solutions suggest a narrow corridor of heating in the wake of this pre-frontal activity later this afternoon over parts of IN/OH. Sufficient instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support a few organized storms, with a risk of strong winds and hail in the most intense cells. This threat should end around sunset. ...PA/NJ/NY... Later tonight, large scale forcing associated with the approaching upper trough will spread into eastern PA and vicinity. Greater low-level moisture will be in place across this region as dewpoints in the upper 60s advect northward. Diurnal cooling/de-coupling will likely limit the severe threat. But there is some chance of an occasional rotating storm during the late evening or overnight, capable of gusty winds or perhaps a brief tornado. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLUMBIA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MONTANA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to intensify and shift eastward, suppressing the strong ridge centered over the southern Plains. At the surface, a cyclone in southern Canada will deepen, enhancing westerly winds along the international border. Very hot and dry conditions are expected over parts of the Plains and Intermountain West. Dry and breezy west winds are expected over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies with widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions likely. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... As the Pacific trough moves inland it is forecast to strengthen, resulting in moderate mid-level westerly flow over much of the Northwest. At the same time, the surface cyclone over southern Alberta should deepen, enhancing low-level flow in its wake. Downslope winds of 20-25 mph are likely in the lee of the Cascades and across the western Columbia Basin. Warm temperatures will also support low afternoon RH of 15-20% from eastern WA to central MT. With area fuels rather dry, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely. Dry and windy conditions will extend eastward across the northern Rockies as the surface low approaches later in the day. While slightly cooler in the wake of a prior cold front, strong surface winds of 20-30 mph are expected over parts of northern/western MT. With afternoon RH values of 20-25% critical conditions still appear likely. As westerly winds increase, the monsoon moisture that has lingered over northern CA and southern OR will be shunted eastward. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of central and northeast OR into western ID/MT. Model soundings show relatively high PWAT values near 1 inch, but fast storm motions greater than 30 mph. Lightning strikes are possible outside of the wetter cores with these storms as they move over areas of dry fuels. However, storm coverage and the potential for some wetting rain cast considerable uncertainty on the need for IsoDryT highlights. ...Texas... As the ridge continues to build, extremely hot temperatures are forecast to redevelop over parts of southern and central TX. Highs over 100F along with exceptionally dry fuels will be the primary catalyst for locally elevated fire-weather activity. Southerly surface winds, while not robust, may occasionally reach 10-15 mph further increasing concerns for locally elevated fire-weather conditions over central parts of the state. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible during the day across portions of New England on Friday. Storms capable of isolated severe gusts will also be possible across parts of Arizona. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep/strong upper-level trough will move across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions on Friday. An associated surface low will move eastward across Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves from the upper Great Lakes into New England through the day. Farther west, a mid/upper-level low will remain nearly stationary off of the California coast. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated surface low will move across the Canadian Prairies, as an attendant cold front moves into the northern Plains. ...Northeast... Multiple rounds of convection are possible across parts of the Northeast/New England on Friday. The initial morning to early afternoon round may be capable of locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, with a more isolated threat later Friday afternoon along/ahead of the cold front. One or more storm clusters will likely be ongoing Friday morning somewhere from northern NY into southern New England. Strong deep-layer flow associated with the approaching upper trough will support sufficient effective shear for organized convective elements within these clusters. The strongest buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg during the morning) is expected near/south of a northward-advancing warm front across southern New England, with weaker instability extending northward into parts of VT/NH. The morning threat will likely be maximized near/south of the warm front, where line-embedded supercells and/or shorter-lived mesovortices will support potential for locally damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, within an environment of favorable low-level shear/SRH. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization that can occur across southern New England prior to storm arrival, higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed. In the wake of early-day convection, redevelopment along/ahead of the cold front will be possible during the afternoon. Coverage and intensity of convection associated with the cold front remain uncertain, with storms potentially struggling to mature due to generally weak instability and a midlevel dry slot overspreading the region. However, a few strong to locally severe storms will be possible within this frontal regime, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and small to marginally severe hail. ...Arizona... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Friday from AZ into southern NV/UT, as moisture continues to increase east of the nearly stationary upper-level trough off of the CA coast. Modest southerly midlevel flow will support the potential for loosely organized, north to northwesterly moving clusters during the afternoon and evening. Localized severe gusts will be possible where somewhat stronger preconvective heating/destabilization occurs, which currently appears most likely across the lower elevations of southern/central AZ. Small hail and gusty winds will also be possible into northern AZ, though coverage of any severe threat remains more uncertain across this area. ...Montana... Widely scattered high-based convection is expected across parts of MT Friday afternoon and evening. Hot, deeply mixed boundary layers will support the potential for localized severe gusts, though the threat appears too disorganized and unfocused for severe-wind probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 08/17/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 16 22:12:01 UTC 2023.

MD 2005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162039Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or perhaps slightly behind a cold front across northern Minnesota late this afternoon or early this evening. This region continues to destabilize with MLCAPE around 750 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and it is expected to increase to as high as 1500 J/kg later this evening. Currently the airmass remains capped, but additional surface heating and cooling temperatures aloft should mostly eliminate inhibition by around 22 UTC. Once storms form, strong mid-level flow at least partially normal to the front should support a broken line of supercells. Instability will start to wane quickly after sunset and a drier airmass is present across Wisconsin. Therefore, storms may persist for a few hours after dark but are expected to weaken by late evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from this activity. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 48319083 48179010 48078967 47878965 47389035 46759087 46349152 45559288 45439399 45419512 45539551 45689571 46129523 47299386 48299245 48449212 48159152 48229110 48319083 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A weak upper low will continue to remain nearly stationary off the California coast into the weekend. Model guidance varies on the speed at which this feature will eventually move north/east. Much depends on the upper-level pattern evolution across the Northwest as well as the track of what is currently tropical storm Hillary in the eastern Pacific. That being said, uncertainty in the forecast increases markedly by early next week. Hot and dry conditions will return to Texas where fuels remain extremely dry. ...Northern California into the Northwest... Chances for thunderstorms will continue in to the weekend. Potential for wetting rainfall will increase with time, particularly in northern California. Depending on the upper-level trough in the Northwest, some mid-level moisture may be pushed eastward late this week. There is some potential for thunderstorms to develop in parts of central/northeast Oregon on Friday/Saturday, but storm coverage is not certain nor is how dry the storms will be. Critical fire weather will continue in the Columbia Basin as the mid-level winds increase across the Cascades on Friday. Potential for additional thunderstorms/rainfall will exist as tropical moisture moves northward. The timing and location of this activity is not certain as the GFS is faster and farther east than the ECMWF. Moisture could enter these areas late this weekend into potentially Tuesday/Wednesday. In either case, wetting rainfall seems probable with these storms. ...Montana... Another day of critical fire weather is possible for parts of western Montana on Friday. Strong westerly winds are expected ahead of a cold front. Models agree that cold front will not move through the area until late afternoon/early evening. RH could be marginal (around 20%), but winds of 20-25 mph will be possible. ...Texas... Very hot conditions will increase again for parts of western/central Texas. Winds are not expected to be overly strong underneath the upper-level ridge. As surface lows develop in the strong heating, there is some possibility for locally elevated fire weather conditions given the very dry fuels. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FAR WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected this afternoon and evening across parts Minnesota, Wisconsin, and western Upper Michigan. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...MN/WI/Western Upper MI... Latest surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging southeastward across ND. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front, along with shallow vertical mixing below a capping inversion, have resulted in a corridor of low-mid 60s dewpoints across much of MN. Strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg. The cap will likely focus thunderstorm development to immediately along or even slightly behind the cold front, but given the strong winds aloft and focused convergence, a few intense bowing structures are expected. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the main threats. Storms will likely persist a few hours after dark and track into parts of northern/central WI and western Upper MI before weakening. ...southern GA/SC/FL... A very moist/unstable air mass will be present again today ahead of a cold front sagging into the southeast states. Winds aloft and large scale forcing are weak, suggesting convection will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and water-loading will contribute to isolated instances of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLUMBIA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level high pressure is forecast to continue building as it shifts eastward over the southern Rockies/Plains through the forecast period. To the west, a Pacific trough will overspread the Northwest, increasing mid-level flow into the Northern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Monsoon moisture will also support shower and thunderstorm chances over southern parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... As the upper ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will turn westerly as a Pacific trough begins to approach. While initially modest, winds are forecast to gradually increase through the day. At the same time, a thermally induced surface pressure trough/weak lee cyclone will bolster low-level pressure gradients in the lee of the Cascades, through the Columbia Basin and into northern MT. This will result in downslope winds of 20-25 mph, along with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. Widespread elevated and critical conditions are likely over the Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies where fuels are quite dry. Confidence in critical conditions is highest across the western Columbia Basin where RH is forecast to be lower and winds slightly stronger. To the south, monsoon moisture will linger over parts of southern OR and northern CA, supporting scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATS climbing above 1 inch and only modest storm speeds. However, area fuels remain very dry and receptive to lightning ignitions. While storms will tend to be come more efficient with wetting rains through the day, sufficient coverage should exist for isolated dry strikes outside of heavier cores across parts of southern OR and far northern CA. ...Central Texas... As the upper ridge rebuilds, very hot temperatures are expected across parts of TX and the southern Plains. Winds are forecast to remain weak, but temperatures well over 100F and exceptionally dry fuels may support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Especially across central portions of the state, local winds may occasionally reach 10-15 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S RDU TO 20 SSE RZZ. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC065-083-101-163-191-195-152340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDGECOMBE HALIFAX JOHNSTON SAMPSON WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 649 SEVERE TSTM NC SC VA 151750Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Northern South Carolina South Central Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, with multiple clusters of severe storms possible. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Charlotte NC to 10 miles northeast of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

MD 2003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern Alabama and southwest Georgia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152151Z - 152345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have produced occasional damaging gusts this afternoon and will likely remain capable of isolated wind damage into this evening. Given the lack of storm organization, a weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of a frontal zone across the FL Panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Over the last couple of hours, occasional strong to severe gusts (59 mph at KMAI) have been noted with a few of these storms. A strongly unstable environment, with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is supporting, and is expected to continue supporting, strong updrafts through this evening. However, with little vertical shear, storm organization has remained limited to pulse multi-cell clusters. The strong buoyancy and PWATs over 2 inches will support the risk for isolated wet microbursts with the strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible into this evening before nocturnal stabilization begins to limit the potential for strong updrafts. Given the limited potential for storm organizational, and the lack of broader synoptic support, a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30858645 30968642 31348582 31618541 31948486 32048454 32078339 31948295 31818298 31328325 30768386 30488430 30358475 30298536 30438605 30628638 30698642 30858645 Read more

WW 0651 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0651 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 651 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 152145Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 545 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to progress generally east-northeastward toward eastern North Carolina through the evening, with the stronger storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of Fayetteville NC to 35 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649...WW 650... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE RZZ TO 35 SW DOV TO 20 N TTN. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-152240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-015-019-037-039-045-047-152240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-025-029-033-152240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 650 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC NJ PA VA CW 151810Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Northeast North Carolina Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of the storms will become severe, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Trenton NJ to 15 miles east of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more