Severe Storms

MD 2307 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LA...CENTRAL MS...AND FAR WESTERN AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern LA...central MS...and far western AL Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 092100Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms capable of all hazards will increase during the next few hours. A Tornado Watch is likely in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows continued heating/destabilization of a moist boundary layer across portions of eastern LA into central MS -- ahead of an east-southeastward moving cold front extending from northwest MS southwestward into northern LA. Additionally, a northeast/southwest-oriented differential heating zone is evident from central MS into LA. Thunderstorm development is expected along the front during the next few hours, as midlevel height falls overspread the frontal zone amid continued warm-sector destabilization. A linear mode is expected along/immediately ahead of the front given largely front-parallel deep-layer flow/shear, with an associated severe-wind threat. However, current indications are that a weak frontal wave may develop northeastward along the frontal zone this evening, yielding a modest low-level mass response and increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature. This could promote embedded supercell structures and a tornado risk. This threat will gradually spread eastward along the cold front into the late evening hours. Additional storm development is possible ahead of the cold front in the vicinity of the differential heating boundary across central MS, and these storms would likely remain more discrete given weaker forcing. 40-50 kt of effective shear will favor supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado threat. Overall, confidence in the development of sustained/persistent discrete/semi-discrete supercells is low given lingering capping and the weak forcing for ascent. A Tornado Watch is likely in the next hour for much of the area. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30849217 30799165 30919094 31288985 31818905 32548827 33168775 33748760 34058783 34268827 34308876 34158939 33709066 32999214 32589270 32029295 31569299 31079271 30849217 Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-063-075-093-107-119-125-127-133-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE GREENE LAMAR MARION PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON ARC017-092340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-123-092340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-063-075-093-107-119-125-127-133-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE GREENE LAMAR MARION PICKENS SUMTER TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON ARC017-092340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-083-107-123-092340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 716 TORNADO AL AR LA MS 092155Z - 100600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Mississippi * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 355 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storm risk including the potential for damaging winds and some tornadoes will increase through the evening, with the risk potentially continuing into the overnight. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from Tupelo MS to 25 miles southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN KYC001-021-045-053-057-137-147-155-199-203-207-217-231-092340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BOYLE CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND LINCOLN MCCREARY MARION PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL TAYLOR WAYNE TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-055-061-087-103-117-127-133- 137-141-175-177-185-092340- TN Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...JKL...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-092340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN KYC001-021-045-053-057-137-147-155-199-203-207-217-231-092340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BOYLE CASEY CLINTON CUMBERLAND LINCOLN MCCREARY MARION PULASKI ROCKCASTLE RUSSELL TAYLOR WAYNE TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-055-061-087-103-117-127-133- 137-141-175-177-185-092340- TN Read more

WW 715 TORNADO AL KY TN 092120Z - 100500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Southern Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including a few long-lived supercells will move across the region late this afternoon and evening, with the potential for all severe hazards including a few tornadoes as well as damaging winds and some hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of London KY to 30 miles south southeast of Muscle Shoals AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE LLQ TO 20 N UOX TO 50 ENE MKL TO 45 S SDF. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC041-092340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DESHA KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-213-227-092340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON WARREN MSC003-009-011-071-093-107-117-139-141-145-092340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON BOLIVAR Read more

MD 2306 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AL INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN AND EASTERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 2306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Northern AL into middle/eastern TN and eastern KY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 092045Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase as storms approach from the west. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 3-4 PM CST. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is currently ongoing from southern KY into western TN and northwest MS. While instability is currently quite limited from eastern TN into southeast KY, some moistening/destabilization is expected with time through late afternoon, aided by rather strong southwesterly low-level flow above the surface. With longer-lived supercells already ongoing, organized convection may spread eastward even as the environment becomes somewhat less favorable, with a continued threat of a couple tornadoes and locally damaging wind. In addition to ongoing convection, additional development is possible ahead of the approaching cold front across parts of northern AL into southern middle TN, as a low-level warm advection regime gradually increases into this evening. Supercells may evolve out of this activity as well, with an attendant threat of all severe hazards. Given the concerns described above, Tornado Watch issuance is likely for parts of the region by 3-4 PM CST. ..Dean/Guyer.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 34468794 34838770 35668610 37558491 37698475 37728440 37548402 37438395 37148407 36618437 35838485 34948574 34358634 34468794 Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0716 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 714... FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KY...WESTERN/MIDDLE TN...NORTHWEST MS...EASTERN AR...NORTHWEST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 2305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Western/central KY...Western/middle TN...Northwest MS...Eastern AR...Northwest AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 714... Valid 091959Z - 092130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 714 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes and isolated severe wind/hail will continue through the afternoon, with storm coverage expected to increase with time. DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells is ongoing early this afternoon from western TN into eastern AR, with occasional rotating cells noted within a larger storm cluster across western KY. A supercell cluster currently approaching the TN/KY border produced an earlier apparent tornado in northwest TN, with another tornado recently noted just southwest of the KHPX radar. The other cells along the broken line will continue to pose a threat of all severe hazards as they move east-northeastward. These cells are ongoing along and just ahead of a composite outflow boundary/cold front that will continue to move eastward this afternoon. Deep-layer flow parallel to the boundary may encourage an increase in storm coverage and a transition to more of a mixed mode with time, though embedded supercells will likely continue to be possible through the afternoon, with all severe hazards possible. The greatest short-term tornado threat (including the potential for a strong tornado) will likely continue to be focused from far northwest MS into western/middle TN, southern KY, and eventually extreme northwest AL, where the most favorable overlap of low-level/deep-layer shear (including 0-1 km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2 noted on regional VWPs and objective mesoanalyses) and instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will persist this afternoon, prior to the arrival of the front. This area is being upgraded to an Enhanced Risk (driven by 10% tornado probabilities) in the upcoming 20Z outlook. Also, downstream watch issuance will likely be needed later this afternoon, as storms approach a larger portion of middle TN into northwest AL. ..Dean.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 33789213 36798744 37298748 37808641 37888586 37788538 37348501 35628616 34618772 33659023 33769178 33789213 Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0715 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LLQ TO 40 NNW GLH TO 20 NE MKL TO 20 NE CKV TO 45 NNE BWG. ..SQUITIERI..12/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...LMK...PAH...JAN...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-041-043-092240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY DESHA DREW KYC003-009-061-087-093-099-123-141-169-171-213-219-227-092240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN EDMONSON GREEN HARDIN HART LARUE LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON TODD WARREN MSC003-009-011-033-071-093-107-117-119-137-139-141-145-092240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Fire weather concerns will be limited through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of persistent surface high pressure over much of the country during the upcoming work week. A cooler continental air mass overspreading the country in the wake of this weekend's cold front across the eastern CONUS, combined with weak pressure gradient winds, should limit fire weather potential. Localized concerns may materialize across southern CA into the lower CO River Valley where the probability for wetting precipitation will remain low through next weekend. The passage of a weak mid-level disturbance around D5/Wed into D6/Thur may support offshore flow along the southern CA coast with an attendant risk of dry/breezy conditions (though confidence in a robust fire weather threat remains limited at this range). ..Moore.. 12/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more