Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears likely to remain negligible through D6. A reinforcing surface anticyclone will become anchored from the OH Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from mid to late week. This will aid in maintaining easterly low-level flow across much of the Gulf Basin and FL Peninsula. The gradual airmass modification in these regions should foster potential for increasing baroclinicity by next weekend as a continental polar airmass remains entrenched farther inland over the Southeast. The majority of 00Z ECMWF ensemble and GEFS members have finally caught up with several of the recent deterministic ECMWF, GFS, and CMC runs which have suggested potential for Gulf to South Atlantic Coast cyclogenesis in the D7-9 time frame. This should occur in response to an upper low over the Southwest getting kicked east towards the Gulf Coast around next weekend. However, run-to-run continuity in terms of timing and degree of amplification with this wave are quite poor, likely in relation to the degree of northern stream phasing/influence as discussed in WPC's PMDEPD. Despite GEFS-based ML-probabilistic guidance indicating a nil severe threat, an area-of-interest for increasing severe potential next weekend includes the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast. Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2320 ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-013-017-031-035-039-041-045-051-053-061-067-069-081- 085-087-101-109-111-113-123-100940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-059-063-091-113-131-133-100940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA HOLMES JACKSON OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0719 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 719 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 719 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-013-017-031-035-039-041-045-051-053-061-067-069-081- 085-087-101-109-111-113-123-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ELMORE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC059-063-131-133-100840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC021-037-045-053-061-077-079-099-145-149-171-193-197-199-207- Read more

MD 2319 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 718... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Sat Dec 09 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central/southern Alabama into west-central Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 718... Valid 100553Z - 100800Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 718 continues. SUMMARY...Modest reductions in MLCIN have allowed activity in Alabama to intensify. Greater low/mid-level ascent has fostered additional discrete storms ahead of the cold front. Tornadoes and damaging winds will remain possible into the overnight. A watch east of WW 717 could be needed if discrete storms mature/intensify. DISCUSSION...Objective mesoanalysis has shown MLCIN decreasing across central/southern Alabama over the last hour or so. This is likely due to some weak theta-e advection within the low-levels. At the same time, an increase in intensity of two linear segments west and southwest and Birmingham has also been noted. Low-level shear from area VAD profiles continue to suggest potential for embedded QLCS circulations and brief tornadoes. Farther east, as has been the case much of the evening, discrete elements are again trying to mature from southeast Alabama into west-central Georgia. With ascent from the mid-level trough and a modest increase in the low-level jet, this activity seems likely to continue. The primary question with these discrete storms is how mature they will become. Buoyancy drops off to the east, but some eastward push of the better airmass is possible as the trough continues its approach. Should a storm mature, the environment would be similarly supportive of tornadoes farther east as well. This activity will have to be monitored and a watch could be needed if further intensification occurs. Otherwise, strong to severe wind gusts will also be a concern, particularly with any more organized linear segments. ..Wendt.. 12/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32648820 33548746 33968572 34028458 33758434 32878426 32198469 31678500 31288560 31138618 31338728 31708799 32648820 Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MEI TO 5 WNW SEM TO 30 N MGM TO 20 SW ANB TO 20 NE GAD. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-015-023-025-027-029-037-047-091-099-121-129-131-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS MARENGO MONROE TALLADEGA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC143-233-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARALSON POLK MSC153-100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MEI TO 5 WNW SEM TO 30 N MGM TO 20 SW ANB TO 20 NE GAD. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-015-023-025-027-029-037-047-091-099-121-129-131-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS MARENGO MONROE TALLADEGA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC143-233-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARALSON POLK MSC153-100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MEI TO 5 WNW SEM TO 30 N MGM TO 20 SW ANB TO 20 NE GAD. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-015-023-025-027-029-037-047-091-099-121-129-131-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS MARENGO MONROE TALLADEGA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC143-233-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARALSON POLK MSC153-100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MEI TO 5 WNW SEM TO 30 N MGM TO 20 SW ANB TO 20 NE GAD. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-015-023-025-027-029-037-047-091-099-121-129-131-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS MARENGO MONROE TALLADEGA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC143-233-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARALSON POLK MSC153-100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MEI TO 5 WNW SEM TO 30 N MGM TO 20 SW ANB TO 20 NE GAD. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-015-023-025-027-029-037-047-091-099-121-129-131-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS MARENGO MONROE TALLADEGA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC143-233-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARALSON POLK MSC153-100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0718 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MEI TO 5 WNW SEM TO 30 N MGM TO 20 SW ANB TO 20 NE GAD. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 718 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-015-023-025-027-029-037-047-091-099-121-129-131-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA CALHOUN CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA DALLAS MARENGO MONROE TALLADEGA WASHINGTON WILCOX GAC143-233-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARALSON POLK MSC153-100840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 718 TORNADO AL GA MS 100410Z - 100800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of central and southern Alabama parts of northwestern Georgia a portion of southeastern Mississippi * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1010 PM until 200 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of strong/locally severe thunderstorms will continue advancing eastward across the Mississippi/Alabama area into the overnight period. Locally strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible, along with a couple of brief tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northwest of Anniston AL to 95 miles southwest of Selma AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 715...WW 716...WW 717... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Goss Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S GAD TO 5 NNW RMG TO 20 E RMG. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC019-055-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE ETOWAH GAC115-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S GAD TO 5 NNW RMG TO 20 E RMG. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC019-055-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE ETOWAH GAC115-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S GAD TO 5 NNW RMG TO 20 E RMG. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC019-055-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE ETOWAH GAC115-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0717 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S GAD TO 5 NNW RMG TO 20 E RMG. ..GLEASON..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC019-055-100840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE ETOWAH GAC115-100840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLOYD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more