Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z The isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been expanded slightly northeast across northwest UT into far southern ID, based on the latest thunderstorm guidance. The Elevated area has been expanded westward across northeast CA into south-central OR, where sustained winds of 15-20 mph appear possible concurrent with minimum RH values of 15-20%. Otherwise, the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 07/12/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0111 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain across the Great Basin for today and will likely emerge for portions of the northern Sierra into southern OR. Upper-level ridging over the Four Corners will continue to foster thunderstorm chances across the Great Basin. A thermal low over northern NV will support breezy conditions across southern portions of the state, while a weak mid-level wave will support windy conditions across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Nevada... Ensemble guidance continues to show fairly high probability in sustained winds between 15-20 mph across southern NV in response to the diurnal deepening of a thermal low to the north. Deep boundary-layer mixing may allow for a few gusts above 20 mph, but generally weak flow aloft will limit the potential for critical wind speeds. Poor moisture recovery and hot afternoon temperatures will support another day of RH values near 10-15%. This, combined with antecedent dry fuels, will support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Northern Sierra Nevada... Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a mid-level impulse embedded within the mean southwesterly flow that is in place across the Pacific Northwest. This feature will not only support increasing thunderstorm chances across the region, but will also enhance boundary-layer flow across the northern Sierra Nevada into southern OR along and ahead of a surface trough. Most solutions suggest sustained winds between 15-20 mph will be common with locally stronger winds possible in the lee of terrain features. Dry fine fuels and afternoon RH values near 15-20% will support elevated fire weather conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture lingers across the great Four Corners region and has increased across much of the Great Basin and West Coast per 00 UTC soundings. Most soundings continue to show sufficient mid-level moisture to support 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop deep, dry boundary layers. These thermodynamic profiles are expected to linger through the day (per forecast soundings) and will support dry thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin, central Sierra Nevada, and across parts of the Pacific Northwest. While dry lightning is possible across all these regions, the risk area denotes locations where regional fuels are sufficiently dry to support a fire weather concern. Thunderstorms with occasional dry lightning are possible across central UT where fuels remain dry, but guidance remains consistent in showing a stronger QPF signal for today compared to previous days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1455 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WV INTO NORTHERN VA...WESTERN/CENTRAL MD...AND DC
Mesoscale Discussion 1455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Areas affected...Portions of WV into northern VA...western/central MD...and DC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121648Z - 121915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A threat for scattered damaging winds and isolated hail should increase this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorms have developed as of 1645Z near the OH/WV border. This activity is occurring just ahead of a weak surface cold front. These thunderstorms and additional convective development should spread eastward across much of WV through the afternoon. With robust diurnal heating occurring and the presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is expected to be present across the warm sector ahead of this activity. This region will be on the southern periphery of a strong mid-level jet over the Northeast, but modestly enhanced mid-level westerlies should still support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. A mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells should occur given the favorable shear. Thunderstorms may also develop along a pre-frontal trough over parts of northern VA/western MD and vicinity later this afternoon as residual convective inhibition eventually erodes. As low-level lapse rates steepen and DCAPE increases, damaging downdraft winds will become a concern as thunderstorms gradually increase in coverage and intensity. Some severe hail may also occur with any cells that can remain discrete given the modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates aloft. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will probably be needed in the next couple of hours as more convection develops. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 38378242 39578079 39717948 39717616 39507616 39027647 38587660 38377702 38147825 37837916 37678026 37618129 37808222 38378242 Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0460 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 460 SEVERE TSTM NY PA VT 121645Z - 122300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 460 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and northeast New York Northeast Pennsylvania Central and northern Vermont * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to form and move eastward, along and immediately east of a cold front. The storm environment will favor a mix of small clusters and some supercells capable of producing damaging outflow gusts and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Burlington VT to 40 miles south southeast of Binghamton NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging winds, are expected from New England through the Mid-Atlantic States into the central Appalachian region and Tennessee Valley, especially this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms may also be noted across the Upper Midwest and over the central High Plains. ...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this afternoon/evening... No changes to the previous outlook. Within a broad midlevel trough over the Great Lakes, an embedded speed maximum will eject eastward/northeastward from the central Appalachians/lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and New England this afternoon/evening, as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward/southeastward from the upper OH Valley and western PA/NY. Destabilization will proceed from west-to-east through the afternoon in advance of the front in conjunction with low-level moisture advection and surface heating, and visible satellite imagery suggests that multiple cells/small clusters will form along and ahead of the cold front by early-mid afternoon from central PA/NY eastward. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and relatively long/straight hodographs with effective bulk shear of 35-50 kt is expected from the Mid-Atlantic northward, along with DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The near-storm environment and expected convective mode will favor clusters and supercells capable of producing damaging winds, though isolated large hail and an isolated tornado or two may also occur with the strongest storms. Some upscale growth into line segments will be possible, which would favor damaging winds as the primary threat. ...Ozarks to TN Valley this afternoon through late evening... Vertical shear will weaken with southwestward extent along a cold front moving slowly southward into TN/AR. Surface temperatures will warm into the 95-100 F range by late afternoon, with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate buoyancy immediately ahead of the front. Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon/evening along the front, and the strongest storms will be capable of producing isolated strong/damaging downburst winds from late afternoon into this evening. ...Central High Plains this evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s reside across eastern CO as of mid morning, though some vertical mixing is expected this afternoon along with strong surface heating. A few high-based storms are expected to form late this afternoon/evening immediately east of the higher terrain, along a developing surface lee trough from southeast WY into northeast CO. Deep-layer northwesterly shear will be sufficient for some storm organization/supercell structures, while the steep lapse rates and modest buoyancy support the threat for isolated strong-severe outflow winds and marginally severe hail for a few hours late this afternoon/evening. ...MN/WI this afternoon/evening... An embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward from southern MB/far western ON across northern MN and WI through this evening. Surface heating and residual low-level moisture, beneath cool midlevel temperatures (near -15 C at 500 mb), will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon with minimal convective inhibition. Thus, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from northeast MN into northern WI, where the modest buoyancy and deep-layer west-northwesterly shear will be sufficient for clusters and low-end supercells capable of producing marginally severe hail and outflow gusts for a few hours later this afternoon/evening. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/12/2022 Read more

MD 1454 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NY/VT INTO PA AND FAR NORTHERN NJ
Mesoscale Discussion 1454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Areas affected...Portions of northern NY/VT into PA and far northern NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 121540Z - 121745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The overall severe threat should gradually increase into the afternoon, with both damaging winds and hail possible. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...An upper trough evident on water vapor satellite imagery over the Great Lakes and Ontario/Quebec will continue eastward across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. Rather strong mid-level flow of 45-55+ kt will accompany the upper trough, and aid in strong effective bulk shear and updraft organization. Partly to mostly sunny conditions are ongoing across much of NY/VT into PA. Continued diurnal heating will likely result in surface temperatures increasing into well into the 80s and lower 90s later this afternoon. MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop ahead of a poorly defined cold front. Weak convergence along/ahead of this boundary and ascent associated with the upper trough will aid robust thunderstorm development over the next couple of hours. Deep-layer shear of 45-50+ kt will support some potential for supercells with both a hail and damaging wind threat. Still, most guidance suggests that a line of convection should eventually consolidate with eastward extent into eastern NY/PA later this afternoon. If this evolution occurs, then damaging winds should become the primary severe hazard. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will probably be needed from parts of northern NY/VT into PA and vicinity to address this gradually increasing severe threat. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/12/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 40137994 43567509 45067340 45057209 44487223 43447286 41307439 40367559 39947635 39757779 39737942 40137994 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, accompanied by a risk for damaging winds, are expected from New England through the Mid-Atlantic States into the central Appalachian region and Tennessee Valley, especially this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms may also be noted across the Upper Midwest and over the central High Plains. ...New England/Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians... A relatively favorable setup for severe weather is in place across the region, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Delmarva have been upgraded to an Enhanced Risk with a somewhat higher/semi-focused corridor of likely severe storms mainly capable of wind damage. Early this morning, a notable shortwave trough/speed max are crossing the Lower Great Lakes/southern Ontario vicinity and will reach northern New England later today. 12z regional observed soundings already sample strong westerlies aloft at locations such as IAD/BUF/PIT, with the Pittsburgh (PIT) sounding also sampling a plume of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates that will advect eastward today. Surface heating will lead to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the eastward-advancing front and near a pre-frontal surface trough. This will likely lead to scattered convective development ahead of the front by midday, which will spread into New England later in the afternoon. Scattered convection may be delayed a few hours across the middle Atlantic into the central Appalachians as large-scale forcing will be negligible at lower latitudes. Even so, ample buoyancy will be noted across the warm sector and forecast shear should support the possibility for organized updrafts, potentially including a few initial supercells. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat with convection this afternoon/evening across this region, but a few instances of hail and/or a brief tornado could also occur ...Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes... A secondary clipper-type shortwave trough will dig southeastward over the region later this afternoon into tonight. Low-level moisture will be limited, but cooling temperatures aloft and strong surface heating could support some stronger semi-low-topped storms this afternoon through early evening. Locally damaging winds and possibly hail could occur particularly across northern/eastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. ...Central High Plains... Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will exist on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered near the Four Corners area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon and spread southeastward across southeast Wyoming and northeast Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle. While PW values are not particularly high across this region, SBCAPE values could approach 1500 J/kg, which should be enough to warrant at least some threat for several hail and gusty winds. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/12/2022 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z No changes have been made to the outlook, see the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 07/11/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will predominantly linger across central UT for today, driven by the potential for dry thunderstorms. A persistent upper ridge over the southern Rockies will likely shift slightly southwest in response to a modestly deepening trough across the Midwest. This will yield a benign surface pressure regime and low potential for wind-driven fire weather threats (though a few localized concerns may emerge). However, this will maintain isolated thunderstorm chances across the greater Four Corners region this afternoon. ...Utah/Dry-Thunderstorms... Monsoonal moisture was well sampled by regional 00 UTC soundings with PWAT values around 0.75 inches in place across AZ and UT. Nearly 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layers and 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE are also noted. This thermodynamic environment resulted in a few thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, and is expected to largely remain unchanged through this afternoon given the stagnant synoptic regime. Orographic ascent should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms with the potential for dry lightning strikes. Slow storm motions (generally < 10 knots) may allow for pockets of wetting rainfall, but peripheral lightning strikes over receptive fuels will maintain a fire weather concern. ...Southern Nevada and Western Texas... Hot temperatures near or above 100 F are expected this afternoon across southern NV and western TX. These hot temperatures combined with seasonal to below-seasonal dewpoints will result in 10-20% RH values by late afternoon. While pressure gradient winds will generally be between 10-15 mph, deep boundary-layer mixing may support areas of 15-20 mph winds and elevated fire weather conditions. Confidence in the duration and coverage of these conditions remains too low for additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 11 16:41:01 UTC 2022.

MD 1449 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1449 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Areas affected...Southwest Lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 111630Z - 111830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible over the next hour or two as the line of storms moving across Lake Michigan moves into southwest Lower Michigan. DISCUSSION...Ongoing line of storms has intensified as it moves over southern Lake Michigan. Low-level stability in place suggests these storms are currently elevated. The downstream air mass across southwest Lower MI is currently characterized by upper 70s temperatures, low 60s dewpoints, and around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE (based on recent mesoanalysis). Some additional heating/moistening of the low-levels is anticipated, but low-level stability should persist, likely limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, some isolated gusty winds appear probable as occasional downbursts penetrate the low-level stability. Limited severe coverage should preclude the need for a watch. ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 41968656 42398630 42938622 43388643 43538623 43398555 43038505 42458502 41928536 41798622 41968656 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Isolated strong-severe wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri west-southwestward into the south-central High Plains and across other parts of the upper Great Lakes. ...Central IL to Lower MI late this afternoon into early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over MN will progress east-southeastward over the Great Lakes by tonight, as an associated/weak surface cold front moves southeastward into KS/MO/IL/MI. An overnight MCS has largely dissipated across northern IL this morning (aside from a few elevated storms over southern Lake MI), but lingering cloud debris will slow surface heating into early afternoon. By mid-late afternoon, pockets of surface heating and eastward advection of low-level moisture along the cold front will result in sufficient destabilization and weakening of the cap to allow thunderstorm development from northern IL across northern IN into southern Lower MI by this evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and corridor of storm initiation, given lingering clouds and modest forcing for ascent. If storms do form from IL into Lower MI by this evening along the front and/or differential heating zone, moderate buoyancy and 50 kt midlevel flow will support a threat for damaging outflow gusts. ...Northeast MN into WI/northern Lower MI through this evening... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to spread southeastward through this afternoon/evening, from northeast MN across WI and northern Lower MI in the zone of strongest forcing for ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough over MN. There could be sufficient residual low-level moisture, cooling midlevel temperatures, and deep-layer vertical shear (largely straight hodographs) for some organized clusters/low-topped supercells capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and large hail. ...Southeast CO/KS/MO late this afternoon into early tonight... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front late this afternoon/evening from MO into southern KS in conjunction with deep mixing along the cold front. Somewhat greater storm coverage expected across southeast CO/northeast NM in the upslope flow regime immediately north of the front. Vertical shear will be weak south of the front, with somewhat longer hodographs in the sheltered northeasterly low-level flow to the immediate cool side of the boundary. Primarily multicell clusters will be capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts in the hot, steep low-level lapse rate environment along the front, and convection could linger into the overnight hours in the zone of richer moisture to the cool side of the boundary. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/11/2022 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2022 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of wind damage will be possible across parts of Illinois into Indiana and Lower Michigan today. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail may also occur from Missouri west-southwestward into the south-central High Plains and across other parts of the Great Lakes. ...Midwest/Great Lakes... A relatively compact (60 miles north-south) cluster of storms, with a history of wind damage/measured severe gusts from eastern Nebraska across the middle part of Iowa, continues eastward into northwest Illinois as of 1230z/730am CDT. This cluster should continue to weaken this morning as it becomes increasingly removed from a reservoir of moisture/instability, but locally strong wind gusts and possibly some hail may continue in the short-term. For additional near-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1448. This MCS, and expected renewed convective development later today, are/will be influenced with a seasonally strong amplifying mid-level shortwave trough crossing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today and tonight. Spatial/timing details are a bit uncertain, but areas/near south of the ongoing early morning MCS will be favored for renewed convective development near/ahead of the southeastward-moving front late this afternoon, which includes a corridor across northern Illinois into northern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan. Strong destabilization is expected particularly across north-central Illinois, although stronger deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent will be a bit compensatory for more moderate destabilization across northern Indiana into Lower Michigan. Storms that form will likely be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Owing to weaker overall forcing and more substantial mid-level warmth with south-southwestward extent, storm development late this afternoon/early evening should be a bit more isolated near the front from western Illinois into Missouri, although steep low-level lapse rates and ample buoyancy will yield at least a conditional or isolated potential for storms to produce severe wind gusts. ...Portions of Minnesota/Wisconsin/Upper Michigan... Marginal-related wind/hail probabilities have been introduced for the region. Amplifying shortwave trough-related seasonably cool mid-level temperatures will contribute to weak inhibition and modest boundary layer destabilization even while moisture diminishes within the post-frontal environment. Scattered semi-low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase during the afternoon with a few instances of hail and/or strong winds being possible. ...South-central Plains... Intense surface heating ahead of the southward-advancing front across the southern High Plains into Kansas will result in dry adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 3km as temperatures soar above 100F. Low-level upslope trajectories will also influence thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa vicinity late in the day. High cloud bases and low RH in the sub-cloud layer may support some storms capable of localized severe-caliber wind gusts with the convection late this afternoon and early evening. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/11/2022 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 10 16:44:10 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The current forecast remains on track. No changes made. ... Western Kansas ... Relative humidity is still forecast to fall into the low teens this afternoon, with surface winds up to 20 mph, with gusts approaching 30 mph. However, fuel moisture should remain sufficiently high to warrant a more widespread critical fire weather threat. Thus, despite the possibility of brief, localized critical fire weather conditions being achieved, no critical highlights have been added. ..Marsh.. 07/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across portions of the Great Basin and northern Rockies amid breezy conditions and dry-thunderstorm chances, but will also emerge across parts of western KS and adjacent areas of CO and NE. ...Idaho into Wyoming... Recent upper-air observations and analyses show a diffuse cold front draped across the northern Great Basin/northern Rockies associated with a passing mid-level wave. This feature will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region, but also induce 15-20 mph westerly winds across the upper Snake River Plain in southeast ID as well as across the Wyoming Basin. Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are possible by early/mid afternoon as stronger mid-level flow mixes down to the surface. Despite the cooler temperatures, poor moisture recovery into the region and some degree of downslope flow (especially through the Wyoming Basin) will result in the RH values near 10-15%. Confidence remains high in several hours of elevated conditions, but periodic critical conditions are possible for wind-prone locations and where/when higher wind gusts occur. ...Utah/Dry-Thunderstorms... Water-vapor imagery reveals a plume of monsoonal moisture advecting northward through eastern NV and western AZ on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge. This moisture was sampled well by the 00 UTC FGZ sounding, and should reach UT/CO by early afternoon. While forcing for ascent will be modest (and should limit the coverage of storms), forecast soundings continue to show favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms with 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE, deep, well-mixed boundary layers, and PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.75 inches. Slow storm motions may limit the number of dry strikes, but receptive fuels across the region warrant maintaining the dry-thunderstorm risk. ...Western Kansas... A lee trough noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains is forecast to shift into the central Plains as an attendant surface low migrates east into the upper MS River Valley. This will augment the regional pressure gradient, resulting in sustained surface winds up to 15-20 mph. Ensemble guidance shows a strong signal for above-normal temperatures with afternoon highs between 100-105 F for western KS. This will result in widespread RH reduction to 10-20% by late afternoon. Although most fuels are only modestly dry, 1 and 10 hour fuel moisture values between 5-10% should support at least a low-end fire weather concern. A few high-based thunderstorms are possible across northwest KS this afternoon, and may result in gusty outflow winds across parts of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains today into tonight. A few strong storms may also occur today from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. ...MN and vicinity through late evening... The ongoing MCS across northern MN has been more resilient than all recent numerical model guidance (both mesoscale and CAM), and it may persist eastward into northeast MN through early afternoon as surface heating/destabilization continues to its east. Given the organized nature of the cold pool and its relatively fast motion, damaging gusts will remain possible into early afternoon. Additional thunderstorm development is possible this afternoon along the outflow boundary trailing west/southwestward from the MCS into west central MN and southeast ND. This area will likely remain capped until mid afternoon as a result of the warm elevated mixed layer noted in the 12z ABR sounding. Still, boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-70 F beneath 8-9 C/km midlevel lapse rates, in concert with daytime heating, should weaken convective inhibition and allow thunderstorm development around 21-22z. The storm environment will conditionally favor supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail and a tornado or two. Some upscale growth into a small cluster will be possible, with an attendant threat for damaging winds as the convection moves southeastward toward east central MN. ...NE WY and vicinity late this afternoon through early tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest MT this morning will crest the midlevel ridge and begin to move east-southeastward by early tonight. Residual low-level moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates, and a reinforcing cold frontal surge may be sufficient for high-based thunderstorm development by this evening, with storms subsequently spreading southeastward into early tonight. Buoyancy will be modest, but vertical shear will be favorable for supercells/small bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and marginally severe hail. ...NE late this afternoon into early tonight... Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a cold front will promote high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon, and storms will spread east-northeastward along the front toward IA into early tonight. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but inverted-v profiles and large DCAPE (~1500 J/kg) will favor strong-severe outflow gusts. ...Northwest Gulf Coast this afternoon... A weak cold front is sagging southward across the Gulf Coast states in association with a weak midlevel trough moving southward around the eastern periphery of a midlevel high over the southern High Plains. A hot/humid boundary layer persists south of the front from southeast TX into southern LA, where Large CAPE (> 3000 J/kg) and DCAPE > 1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging downbursts with pulse-type cells and loosely organized, southward moving clusters this afternoon. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 07/10/2022 Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DTL TO 35 S RRT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436 ..MOSIER..07/10/22 ATTN...WFO...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC007-057-101640- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELTRAMI HUBBARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0456 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 456 SEVERE TSTM MN 101515Z - 101900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North central and northeast Minnesota * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1015 AM until 200 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...An ongoing convective system is expected to continue eastward across northern Minnesota for the next few hours, with the threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail to near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of International Falls MN to 35 miles east southeast of Brainerd MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 455... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Sun Jul 10 2022 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and northern Plains today into tonight. A few strong storms may also occur today from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, as well as other parts of the Southeast. ...Upper Midwest/North Dakota... Initially, a severe fast-moving (50+ kt) MCS is ongoing early this morning from far eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. Severe-caliber wind gusts will remain possible for a time, but the system should eventually weaken this morning as inflow diminishes. That said, given the large-scale support aloft, complete dissipation is not expected and the primary question is to what degree/where robust convection develops in the wake of the MCS debris field along the advancing frontal zone. This currently appears most probable across northern Minnesota along the southern edge of the ongoing MCS where differential heating/frontal convergence should be adequate for renewed convective development by around mid-afternoon. Strong shear suggests supercells are possible, with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. Farther west, additional strong/severe storms, at least on an isolated basis, may develop/move southeastward across the international border into northern North Dakota later this afternoon and evening. With moderate recovery in the wake of the MCS early today, at least isolated severe storms capable of wind/hail may occur and have maintained the ongoing Slight Risk for this post-MCS/later-day severe potential. ...Northern High Plains... Surface pressure rises across Montana will create a narrow corridor of favorable low-level upslope flow along the Montana/Wyoming border by late afternoon as a secondary surface boundary strengthens and advances south during the evening. While PW values will not be particularly moist (around 1 inch), strong surface heating and orographic influences should aid at least isolated robust development. Forecast soundings suggest strongly sheared storms could generate gusty winds as high-based supercells spread southeast toward the Black Hills region. ...Southeast Texas/southern Louisiana... Strengthening northwesterly flow across the Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South region will ensure a surface boundary sags south across Louisiana, arcing west into south-central Texas. Very strong surface heating will allow temperatures to soar above 100F across southeast Texas with mid 90s into southwest Louisiana. While deep-layer flow will be weak along this corridor, high PW values and warm temperatures should contribute to a few robust updrafts. Forecast soundings across southeast Texas suggest cloud bases may be near 3km AGL and this may contribute to gusty downdrafts due to relatively low sub-cloud RH values. ...Coastal Carolinas and vicinity... Although cloud cover is semi-prevalent early today, a few strong to locally severe storms may occur into the afternoon across South Carolina and nearby parts of Georgia/coastal North Carolina. Moderate diurnal destabilization ahead of an upstream shortwave trough will influence the potential for these stronger updrafts/downdrafts, with some localized wind damage a possibility. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 07/10/2022 Read more

WW 0454 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 454 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ABR TO 30 ENE JMS TO 45 WSW HCO. ..LEITMAN..07/10/22 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 454 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-017-035-073-091-097-101340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES CASS GRAND FORKS RANSOM STEELE TRAILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more