Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dearth of buoyancy adequate for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception will be over the TX Trans-Pecos into southeast NM. Moistening around 700 mb should gradually occur downstream of a shortwave impulse digging from the Sierra Nevada to the Lower CO Valley. Guidance has trended faster with indicating scant elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. The RRFS and parent 03Z RAP environment support isolated thunderstorm potential, despite neutral mid-level height change. Even so, most 00Z non-CAM and both available HREF members in the 48-60 hour time frame indicate minimal convective signal prior to 12Z Wednesday. ..Grams.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dearth of buoyancy adequate for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception will be over the TX Trans-Pecos into southeast NM. Moistening around 700 mb should gradually occur downstream of a shortwave impulse digging from the Sierra Nevada to the Lower CO Valley. Guidance has trended faster with indicating scant elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. The RRFS and parent 03Z RAP environment support isolated thunderstorm potential, despite neutral mid-level height change. Even so, most 00Z non-CAM and both available HREF members in the 48-60 hour time frame indicate minimal convective signal prior to 12Z Wednesday. ..Grams.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dearth of buoyancy adequate for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception will be over the TX Trans-Pecos into southeast NM. Moistening around 700 mb should gradually occur downstream of a shortwave impulse digging from the Sierra Nevada to the Lower CO Valley. Guidance has trended faster with indicating scant elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. The RRFS and parent 03Z RAP environment support isolated thunderstorm potential, despite neutral mid-level height change. Even so, most 00Z non-CAM and both available HREF members in the 48-60 hour time frame indicate minimal convective signal prior to 12Z Wednesday. ..Grams.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A dearth of buoyancy adequate for thunderstorm potential will persist across much of the CONUS on Tuesday. One exception will be over the TX Trans-Pecos into southeast NM. Moistening around 700 mb should gradually occur downstream of a shortwave impulse digging from the Sierra Nevada to the Lower CO Valley. Guidance has trended faster with indicating scant elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. The RRFS and parent 03Z RAP environment support isolated thunderstorm potential, despite neutral mid-level height change. Even so, most 00Z non-CAM and both available HREF members in the 48-60 hour time frame indicate minimal convective signal prior to 12Z Wednesday. ..Grams.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone will be positioned across parts of the Northeast with a cutoff low developing in the Great Basin in a quasi-Rex Block pattern. Surface high pressure will continue to be the predominant feature over much of the CONUS. Fire weather concerns will likely remain minimal on Tuesday for most areas. Offshore pressure gradients in southern California will increase very late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. However, RH recovery overnight and only marginal increases in the wind should keep fire weather concerns low through the end of the period. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will develop as a strong upper-level trough exists the East Coast today. Surface high pressure will be present over a vast majority of the CONUS. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds over the driest fuels should keep fire weather concerns low. ..Wendt.. 12/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be present today across much of the continental United States, as a trough of low pressure moves eastward across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move northeastward across the Southeast. This will suppress moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, keeping a relatively dry and cool airmass in place over much of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be present today across much of the continental United States, as a trough of low pressure moves eastward across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move northeastward across the Southeast. This will suppress moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, keeping a relatively dry and cool airmass in place over much of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be present today across much of the continental United States, as a trough of low pressure moves eastward across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move northeastward across the Southeast. This will suppress moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, keeping a relatively dry and cool airmass in place over much of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected in the U.S. today and tonight. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, west-northwesterly flow will be present today across much of the continental United States, as a trough of low pressure moves eastward across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will move northeastward across the Southeast. This will suppress moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico, keeping a relatively dry and cool airmass in place over much of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 12/11/2023 Read more