Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California today. ...DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure will be in place today across the Gulf Coast states and along the Eastern Seaboard. For this reason, a dry airmass will remain over much of the continental United States today. In the West, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of the trough, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the coasts of Oregon and northern California, as mid-level moisture streams inland from the Pacific. This convection will not pose a severe threat. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight in the U.S. ...DISCUSSION... A large area of surface high pressure will remain in place tonight from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and to the Eastern Seaboard. Northerly flow at the surface across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will keep a dry airmass in place across most of the nation. This will make thunderstorm development very unlikely tonight across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/02/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 1 22:00:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 1 22:00:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Weak ridging over the western US will slowly de-amplify as the main upper-air pattern shifts toward zonal flow through the extended forecast period. Strong westerly flow aloft will develop over the central and southern CONUS this weekend, continuing through next week. More amplified flow may return late in the forecast period, but there remains substantial uncertainty. With conditions generally favoring weaker winds and cooler temperatures, fire-weather concerns are expected to remain relatively low. ...Southwest to the Southern High Plains... As zonal flow becomes established later in the forecast period, strong winds aloft will begin to overspread the region this weekend into early next week. Aided by lee troughing, downslope westerly winds of 15-25 mph are possible late this weekend, with humidity values gradually falling into early next week. The dry and somewhat cool air mass should eventually support RH values below 20% over a fairly wide area across NM and parts of the TX Panhandle. Despite the favorable meteorological conditions, uncertainty on fuel dryness is very high after recent rainfall and freezing temperatures. Most ERC guidance shows well-below normal values across eastern NM and the southern High Plains where the best overlap of strong winds and low humidity are expected. Thus, while localized fire-weather concerns are possible, uncertainty on the availability of fuels remains too high for probabilities at this time. Elsewhere across the US, weaker winds and cool temperatures should serve to limit fire-weather concerns through the next 7 days. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are forecast today. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ..Gleason.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023/ A few lightning flashes have been noted this morning with snow showers in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario. The associated mid-level shortwave trough is rapidly departing this area, suggesting the risk of further lightning is diminishing rapidly. Elsewhere, no thunderstorms are forecast today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, modest winds and cool temperatures should keep fire-weather concerns low over the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, modest winds and cool temperatures should keep fire-weather concerns low over the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed Nov 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... No changes, modest winds and cool temperatures should keep fire-weather concerns low over the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 11/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and cooler temperatures will linger across portions of the Southeast to the East Coast as relatively zonal upper-level flow becomes established over the CONUS tomorrow (Thursday). Weak forcing associated with the aforementioned weather patterns should continue to promote dry surface conditions across the southeast quadrant of the CONUS tomorrow. However, surface winds will also be weak, with wildfire-spread potential expected to remain localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more