Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms remains low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough in West Texas will continue to move east and eventually pivot northeast into the ArkLaTex/Mid-South regions later Sunday afternoon/evening. A surface cold front will move east with this feature through much of the Plains. Modest deepening of a surface low can also be expected in the vicinity of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by evening. A warm front will also be positioned from southeast Louisiana northwestward into eastern Oklahoma. This feature will likely remain diffuse. ...Central Texas into parts of Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of the period both along the cold front and within the broader warm advection zone eastward into southern Louisiana. This activity should limit the overall potential for destabilization for most of the region. Despite the unfavorable thermodynamics, deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts could allow for some transient storm organization. Backing winds within parts of the middle/upper troposphere certainly suggest a messy storm mode at best. Some low-level shear can be noted early in the period before the low-level jet weakens and shifts east. Some enhancement of the 850 mb winds may persist near the warm front in Louisiana, but this will likely be mostly confined to the cool side of the boundary. That said, some weak low-level rotation could occur in the stronger storms. Within parts of the Texas central/upper Gulf Coast, dewpoints ahead of the front could be a touch higher and lead to slightly higher buoyancy. While a stronger storm or two could occur, most guidance continues to keep the strongest activity offshore. Given the uncertainties with early precipitation and weakening low-level winds into the afternoon, confidence is too low for severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough will amplify into a closed low across the central/southern Plains. A deepening surface cyclone will move across Kansas/Missouri. There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of the surface low. However, regardless of the track, a strong pressure gradient is expected to develop across the central Plains. Despite the associated strong winds, the combination of antecedent rainfall and cold temperatures will limit fire-weather concerns on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more