Severe Storms

MD 0038 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5...7... FOR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0038 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...northern South Carolina...central North Carolina...and southern Virginia. Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...7... Valid 092102Z - 092230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5, 7 continues. SUMMARY...A broken line of storms continues east with a threat for damaging wind gusts and potential for brief tornadoes. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues to move east across central South Carolina and central North Carolina with a history of producing damaging wind gusts. Lightning has lessened within the last few hours along this line as it moves east of the greater forcing and into a less buoyant airmass. However, some reintensification of the line has recently been observed near the South Carolina/North Carolina border, likely as a result of the approaching synoptic front. This was well forecast by the last several runs of the WoFS which also persist this well organized line to the South Carolina and North Carolina coast this evening. The best potential for supercellular tornadoes (and strong tornado potential) still exists with strong supercells moving off of the Gulf (see MCD 36), however, there remains some potential for tornadic producing supercells ahead of the squall line through the evening. Watch 7 may need to be expanded to the coast in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia if discrete development ahead of the line indicates it may move into that region. ..Bentley/Hart.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 33837779 33777830 33667882 33197904 32707971 32568029 32728089 33098080 33998054 34888041 36327956 37277883 37457806 37327711 36927598 36077561 35647538 35157551 34787620 34567647 34497687 34407741 33837779 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW FMY TO 35 E PIE TO 25 NNW ORL TO 15 SSE SGJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-015-027-049-055-071-081-095-097-105-115-117-127-092340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO HARDEE HIGHLANDS LEE MANATEE ORANGE OSCEOLA POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-GMZ836-856-092340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND Read more

MD 0036 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5...6...7... FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0036 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...far eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...6...7... Valid 092026Z - 092200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5, 6, 7 continues. SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat is increasing this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A band of supercells has started to mature as they move north over the warm Atlantic waters. Very strong shear, (68 knots per CHS 18Z RAOB) and a vorticity rich low-level airmass with 474 m2/2 0-500m SRH will support a waterspout/tornado threat with these supercells. However, at this time, instability is still quite limited along the coast with only 61F dewpoint at North Myrtle Beach, SC and Southport, NC. This may keep the tornado threat confined to the coast initially. However, the higher theta-e airmass over the ocean is expected to advect inland late this afternoon and evening which may also increase the strong tornado threat. ..Bentley.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33717882 34257877 34817841 34887776 34237735 32487794 32217872 32267918 32947915 33717882 Read more

MD 0037 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5...6... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0037 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of north/central FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...6... Valid 092034Z - 092200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5, 6 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and embedded QLCS tornadoes continues this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms extends from far northeast FL into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as of 2030Z. Both low-level and deep-layer shear remain impressively strong across these areas in association with a mid/upper-level cyclone centered over the mid MS Valley/Midwest. With filtered diurnal heating supporting around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, this line should maintain its intensity as it moves eastward across the northern and central FL Peninsula over the next couple of hours. Scattered damaging winds up to 60-70 mph should remain the primary severe threat. But, with the KTBW VWP still showing around 370 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH, the threat for embedded QLCS tornadoes continues. ..Gleason.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28478285 29818203 30638172 30578140 30008129 29118120 27008250 27708315 28478285 Read more

MD 0035 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR WESTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0035 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Areas affected...Western Iowa...Northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 091909Z - 092215Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall with rates of 1"/hr gradually shifting north and east through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A 982 mb surface low was currently located across northern Illinois/Indiana as of 19z. Moderate to heavy snowfall has been on going across a deformation zone located across western Iowa into northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Temperatures are hovering near to just above freezing across portions of far northeastern IL and southern WI. Expect the low to continue to move northeastward with freezing temperatures spreading eastward and a transition to snow by around 21z with potential for areas of 1"/hr rates. ..Thornton.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42609198 42719180 43039116 43309067 43708962 44088848 44288785 44298751 44198741 43868744 43548749 43058764 42568768 42278777 41928799 41708829 41498855 41148922 40988979 40809021 40749056 40649133 40939173 41349196 41759209 42179214 42609198 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW SRQ TO 10 E PIE TO 20 SW SGJ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0037 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-015-027-049-055-057-069-071-081-095-097-101-105-115-117- 119-127-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO HARDEE HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEE MANATEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO POLK SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-GMZ836-853-856-092240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW GSO TO 20 ESE GSO TO 25 NNE DAN TO 45 E LYH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-031-037-047-049-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083- 085-093-101-103-105-107-123-125-127-129-131-135-137-141-145-153- 155-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-092240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET CHATHAM COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MONTGOMERY MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PAMLICO PENDER PERSON RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-041-049-053-081-083-111-117-135-145-147-570-595-730- Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CTY TO 15 E JAX TO 40 SSE SAV TO 35 NE SAV TO 15 ESE OGB TO 40 NW FLO TO 40 WNW SOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-083-107-109-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS NCC007-057-067-151-092240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON DAVIDSON FORSYTH RANDOLPH SCC015-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-061-067-069-089- 092240- SC Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CTY TO 15 E JAX TO 40 SSE SAV TO 35 NE SAV TO 15 ESE OGB TO 40 NW FLO TO 40 WNW SOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-083-107-109-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS NCC007-057-067-151-092240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON DAVIDSON FORSYTH RANDOLPH SCC015-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-061-067-069-089- 092240- SC Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CTY TO 15 E JAX TO 40 SSE SAV TO 35 NE SAV TO 15 ESE OGB TO 40 NW FLO TO 40 WNW SOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-083-107-109-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS NCC007-057-067-151-092240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON DAVIDSON FORSYTH RANDOLPH SCC015-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-061-067-069-089- 092240- SC Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CTY TO 15 E JAX TO 40 SSE SAV TO 35 NE SAV TO 15 ESE OGB TO 40 NW FLO TO 40 WNW SOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-083-107-109-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS NCC007-057-067-151-092240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON DAVIDSON FORSYTH RANDOLPH SCC015-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-061-067-069-089- 092240- SC Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CTY TO 15 E JAX TO 40 SSE SAV TO 35 NE SAV TO 15 ESE OGB TO 40 NW FLO TO 40 WNW SOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-083-107-109-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS NCC007-057-067-151-092240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON DAVIDSON FORSYTH RANDOLPH SCC015-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-061-067-069-089- 092240- SC Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE CTY TO 15 E JAX TO 40 SSE SAV TO 35 NE SAV TO 15 ESE OGB TO 40 NW FLO TO 40 WNW SOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038 ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...RAH...GSP...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC035-083-107-109-092240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FLAGLER MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS NCC007-057-067-151-092240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANSON DAVIDSON FORSYTH RANDOLPH SCC015-019-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-061-067-069-089- 092240- SC Read more

WW 5 TORNADO FL GA NC SC CW 091640Z - 092300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 5 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Florida Southeast Georgia South Central North Carolina Much of South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1140 AM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of fast-moving thunderstorms will sweep eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles north northeast of Charlotte NC to 35 miles east southeast of Gainesville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 4... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CST Tue Jan 09 2024 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A strong upper-level trough will be in the process pivoting through the Southwest/northern Mexico on Thursday before quickly ejecting into the southern Plains by Friday morning. As this feature races northeastward it will become a strong upper low in the Upper Midwest with broadly cyclonic flow elsewhere across much of the central/eastern CONUS during the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes a bit more uncertain into next week, though a trough in the East and a ridge in the West is the current general theme in forecast guidance. At the surface, a surface cyclone will deepen rapidly as it moves from the southern Plains into the lower Great Lakes region. Colder air will eventually filter into the Plains during the weekend with another reinforcing shot early next week. Low temperatures and precipitation should limit fire weather concerns in most areas. Dry and windy conditions are expected to occur in the Trans-Pecos on Thursday. Though locally elevated fire weather appears probable, limited fuel receptiveness should keep greater concerns from developing despite the near-critical/critical meteorological conditions. As the front moves southward on Friday, another northwesterly flow regime will develop in the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. With the dry and windy conditions in the preceding days, fine fuels appear that they will be dry enough to support fire spread. Winds will be strongest in the morning into the early afternoon before diminishing. Highlights have been added for the few hours of expected elevated to near-critical fire weather. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more