Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough accompanied by strong flow aloft will advance eastward from the Great Plains into the eastern CONUS. An attendant surface low initially over the Mid-MS Valley will deepen as it moves northeastward into the Great Lakes, while a southward-extending cold front continues eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. On the backside of the surface low and midlevel wave, a tight pressure gradient will yield strong northwesterly surface winds across much of TX. Along the Lower Rio Grande Valley, 20-30 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) are expected during the morning into early afternoon hours. During this time, boundary-layer heating/mixing into very dry air aloft will favor 10-15 percent minimum RH. These dry/windy conditions will support elevated to locally/briefly critical fire-weather conditions given modestly receptive fine fuels over the area. ..Weinman.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE DAL TO 15 ENE PRX TO 35 NNW DEQ TO 35 SE FYV. ..DEAN..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-069- 071-073-081-083-085-091-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-117-119- 125-127-133-139-141-145-147-149-120840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEVIER UNION VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL LAC015-017-027-119-120840- LA Read more

MD 0047 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 9... FOR ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...Arklatex Concerning...Tornado Watch 9... Valid 120544Z - 120745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across the western half of ww009 over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel vort advancing east across the TX South Plains. Leading edge of large-scale support is spreading across north-central TX in association with left exit region of midlevel jet. Over the last hour or so, IR imagery suggests convection has gradually been deepening along the front, from east of SEP-DFW-southeast of Sherman TX. Lightning is now observed with this activity over Collin County and further strengthening is expected along the wind shift over the next few hours. Latest thinking is substantial increase in convection should be noted along the advancing front across the western portions of ww009 by 07z. While the frontal convection may become more linear with time, very strong shear supports the potential for supercells. Damaging winds are expected with this convection along with some risk for tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33989640 35639230 33309230 31669639 33989640 Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047 ..DEAN..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-069- 071-073-081-083-085-091-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-117-119- 125-127-131-133-139-141-145-147-149-120740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER UNION VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL LAC015-017-027-119-120740- Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more