SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CST Sat Dec 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will rotate through the longwave trough located across the Central CONUS today bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow across the High Plains will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas, with sustained winds around 15-25 mph (locally higher). Fuels within these regions remain moist, which will help mitigate concerns over fire spread. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 713 Status Reports

1 year 7 months ago
WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S 7R4 TO 20 N HUM TO 20 NNW ASD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2300. ..GRAMS..12/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-103-109-020640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. TAMMANY TERREBONNE MSC045-047-059-020640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-020640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 7 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible over parts of the Southeast, primarily Saturday morning. ...Southeast... Broad upper ridge will influence much of the southeastern US the first half of the period before weak height falls develop in response to the approaching MS Valley trough Saturday night. This flow regime favors seasonally strong southwesterly midlevel flow, and low-level warm advection should be the primary instigator for deep convection ahead of the trough. Late this evening, a fairly large complex of deep convection has evolved over the lower MS Valley, extending from LA into southern MS, arcing into the northeast Gulf Basin. Some of this activity is fairly robust, especially over southeast LA where surface dew points have risen into the upper 60s to near 70F. Boundary-layer modification is expected downstream of this activity, especially across southern AL into the FL Panhandle. Latest speed/movement of the MCS suggests the leading edge of the complex will be over southern AL/western FL Panhandle at sunrise. LLJ should strengthen into this region through 18z and wind profiles favor organized convection. While the primary storm mode should be clusters/MCS, some risk for embedded supercells exists. Where dew points rise into the upper 60s to near 70F there will be a risk of surface-based convection along with some potential for tornadoes. Main severe threat will be prior to 18-19z, then the LLJ will translate downstream into an increasingly hostile air mass less favorable for robust updrafts. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/02/2023 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 713 Status Reports

1 year 7 months ago
WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..12/02/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-099- 101-103-105-109-121-020540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WEST BATON ROUGE MSC045-047-059-020540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON GMZ435-436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-020540- CW Read more
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