Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Sunday/D4, a large upper-level trough will move from the MS Valley toward the East Coast, with a front pushing quickly off the coast. A short period may exist for thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Carolinas, GA, and FL early Sunday, but instability is not forecast to be very strong. From Monday/D5 through Thursday/D8, a rather amplified yet progressive pattern is expected to persist across the eastern CONUS, with high pressure maintaining offshore flow and preventing destabilization for most of the period. Although predictability with the large-scale pattern does decrease markedly after Wednesday/D7, the overall pattern does not appear to favor severe weather through the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will persist from the southern Plains into much of the East, with an amplifying upper trough over the Plains at 00Z. This wave will eject northeastward across the OH Valley, as has been the case with the previous several shortwaves. Minor height rises in a warm advection regime will occur over the Southeast during the day, but will give way to falls during the afternoon and especially overnight as the primary speed max to the north grazes the region. An effective boundary/surface trough will likely remain situated from southwest to northeast from southern LA into MS, AL, and GA, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north across AL and into GA. Substantial ongoing rain and storms are forecast early on Saturday near the boundary, and this activity should transition eastward through the period. An area of overlapping instability and low-level shear near a warm front could yield supercell potential, but the actual risk will depend on mesoscale factors such as boundary position. As such, will introduce low severe probabilities for wind and isolated tornadoes at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday, as well as overnight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley into the Northeast, while a secondary, low-amplitude wave moves from the southern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. South of the track of these trough, moderate southwest flow aloft will persist, from TX into the lower MS and TN Valley, with neutral height tendencies. At the surface, low pressure will weaken as it moves from MO into IN during the day, with an boundary extending southwestward across TN/MS/LA and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The position of this weak boundary may be correlated with ongoing convection early Friday morning, roughly from LA into MS, with areas of outflow. Additional storms are likely to develop ahead of the front though, in a moistening air mass over AL as a warm front gradually lifts ahead of the aforementioned boundary to the west. Overall, large-scale ascent will be weak, but persistent southwesterly flow around 850 mb and the lifting warm front will aid destabilization via moisture advection. Scattered storms both with the early-day activity along the western front, and with isolated new development across the warm sector over southern MS and AL may yield damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado prior to winds veering with the passage of the initial wave. Overnight, as the second shortwave trough approaches, redevelopment is expected from LA into MS and AL. A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen, which will maintain a moist air mass with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Forecast soundings toward 12Z Saturday depict sufficient instability to support a transient supercell or two, with brief tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday, as well as overnight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley into the Northeast, while a secondary, low-amplitude wave moves from the southern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. South of the track of these trough, moderate southwest flow aloft will persist, from TX into the lower MS and TN Valley, with neutral height tendencies. At the surface, low pressure will weaken as it moves from MO into IN during the day, with an boundary extending southwestward across TN/MS/LA and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The position of this weak boundary may be correlated with ongoing convection early Friday morning, roughly from LA into MS, with areas of outflow. Additional storms are likely to develop ahead of the front though, in a moistening air mass over AL as a warm front gradually lifts ahead of the aforementioned boundary to the west. Overall, large-scale ascent will be weak, but persistent southwesterly flow around 850 mb and the lifting warm front will aid destabilization via moisture advection. Scattered storms both with the early-day activity along the western front, and with isolated new development across the warm sector over southern MS and AL may yield damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado prior to winds veering with the passage of the initial wave. Overnight, as the second shortwave trough approaches, redevelopment is expected from LA into MS and AL. A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen, which will maintain a moist air mass with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Forecast soundings toward 12Z Saturday depict sufficient instability to support a transient supercell or two, with brief tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday, as well as overnight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley into the Northeast, while a secondary, low-amplitude wave moves from the southern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. South of the track of these trough, moderate southwest flow aloft will persist, from TX into the lower MS and TN Valley, with neutral height tendencies. At the surface, low pressure will weaken as it moves from MO into IN during the day, with an boundary extending southwestward across TN/MS/LA and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The position of this weak boundary may be correlated with ongoing convection early Friday morning, roughly from LA into MS, with areas of outflow. Additional storms are likely to develop ahead of the front though, in a moistening air mass over AL as a warm front gradually lifts ahead of the aforementioned boundary to the west. Overall, large-scale ascent will be weak, but persistent southwesterly flow around 850 mb and the lifting warm front will aid destabilization via moisture advection. Scattered storms both with the early-day activity along the western front, and with isolated new development across the warm sector over southern MS and AL may yield damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado prior to winds veering with the passage of the initial wave. Overnight, as the second shortwave trough approaches, redevelopment is expected from LA into MS and AL. A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen, which will maintain a moist air mass with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Forecast soundings toward 12Z Saturday depict sufficient instability to support a transient supercell or two, with brief tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday, as well as overnight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley into the Northeast, while a secondary, low-amplitude wave moves from the southern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. South of the track of these trough, moderate southwest flow aloft will persist, from TX into the lower MS and TN Valley, with neutral height tendencies. At the surface, low pressure will weaken as it moves from MO into IN during the day, with an boundary extending southwestward across TN/MS/LA and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The position of this weak boundary may be correlated with ongoing convection early Friday morning, roughly from LA into MS, with areas of outflow. Additional storms are likely to develop ahead of the front though, in a moistening air mass over AL as a warm front gradually lifts ahead of the aforementioned boundary to the west. Overall, large-scale ascent will be weak, but persistent southwesterly flow around 850 mb and the lifting warm front will aid destabilization via moisture advection. Scattered storms both with the early-day activity along the western front, and with isolated new development across the warm sector over southern MS and AL may yield damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado prior to winds veering with the passage of the initial wave. Overnight, as the second shortwave trough approaches, redevelopment is expected from LA into MS and AL. A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen, which will maintain a moist air mass with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Forecast soundings toward 12Z Saturday depict sufficient instability to support a transient supercell or two, with brief tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more