Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1057 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast vicinity... A warm advection regime will be maintained for much of the period as fast southwesterly deep-layer flow streams across the region ahead of a mid/upper trough ejecting east from the Plains toward the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop east/southeast across the vicinity during the afternoon and overnight hours. Vertical shear profiles typically supporting organized thunderstorms, and conditionally supercells, will overlap the region. However, despite upper 60s to near 70 F surface dewpoints spreading north and east across southern AL/GA and northern FL, limited heating and poor lapse rates will limit instability, with only pockets or a narrow corridor of surface-based instability anticipated. The better thermodynamic environment will remain offshore the central Gulf Coast. Some stronger cells may develop over the near-shore waters and move inland across southern AL, the FL Panhandle and perhaps as far north as southwest GA. A couple strong gusts or a tornado could accompany any stronger cells moving inland. Maintaining stronger updrafts further inland will be difficult and the northward extent of severe potential should diminish quickly. ..Leitman.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast for minimal fire weather concerns remains on track. See previous forecast below. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Upper TX Coast to FL Panhandle... No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. A line of thunderstorms currently extends from south-central AL into the central Gulf of Mexico, tracking eastward into the western FL Panhandle. These storms have occasionally exhibited weak bow/lewp and rotational structures, but have remained below severe limits. This trend is expected through the afternoon as low-level winds veer and weaken. Nevertheless, an isolated cell may result in locally gusty/damaging winds or a brief spin up. farther west, the primary surface boundary extends along the immediate TX Gulf coast and into the southern parishes of LA. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over northern Mexico will approach the western Gulf later this afternoon. Slight strengthening of southerly low-level winds ahead of the system will enhance warm advection and lift along the boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms. There is a narrow corridor from south-central LA into southern MS/AL along the boundary where surface-based storms could pose a risk of damaging winds later this evening and tonight. Given the expected widespread nature of the precipitation and limited potential for heating/destabilization - along with only marginally favorable low-level winds - will not add a SLGT risk for this scenario at this time. However, we will continue to monitor this risk. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/01/2023 Read more

MD 2296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Mississippi and southwestern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 011335Z - 011530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Potential for locally strong wind gusts, or perhaps a brief tornado, may still not be completely negligible with the ongoing cluster of thunderstorms spreading across/northeast and east of the Gulfport MS vicinity. However, this limited severe weather threat appears likely to diminish as convection weakens through mid morning. DISCUSSION...Although convective intensities have been generally modest, a persistent cluster of thunderstorms has exhibited organized structure during the past few hours as it develops east-northeastward within 40+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Activity appears rooted above a shallow stable near-surface layer, supported by forcing for ascent associated with warm advection, beneath a divergent upper flow field between the polar and subtropical jets. To this point, the severe weather potential probably has been limited by weak lapse rates above the stable surface layer, which is only supporting weak CAPE (as evident in 12Z raob from LIX). While forecast soundings suggest that there will be a gradual modification of the boundary-layer inland of coastal areas ahead of the line into mid to late morning, a 40-50 kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet still roughly coincident with the line is forecast to continue to shift away from coastal areas into the western slopes of the Appalachians. As this occurs, weakening low-level forcing for ascent and gradually shrinking low-level hodographs are expected to result in diminishing convective trends. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30458931 31628789 31408715 30718726 30338804 29828916 30128945 30458931 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with marginal tornado and/or wind potential are possible from parts of coastal southeast Texas to the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a series of shortwaves will traverse broader, progressive troughing over the western CONUS. As that occurs, an initially well-developed, negatively tilted shortwave trough over western IL will eject northeastward and weaken considerably, reaching parts of PA/NY by 00Z. A weaker, convectively augmented perturbation and associated vorticity lobe -- evident in moisture- channel and composited radar imagery over southern portions of MS/LA -- will also eject away from the Gulf Coast region, likely moving offshore from the Carolinas and GA around 00Z. In response to these developments, weak height rises are expected over the western/ central Gulf Coast region. A surface low related to the leading shortwave trough was analyzed at 11Z over central MO, with cold front across southwestern MO, the OK/AR border region, east TX, and near the lower/middle TX Coast. By 00Z, the low should be weakening and located near the IL/IN border, having been rapidly outrun by the mid/upper wave. The cold front should extend south-southwestward down the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Valleys to the LCH vicinity, temporarily stalling or drifting southeastward near the upper TX Coast and just offshore the remainder of the TX Coast through the day. A weak frontal-wave low may develop over southwestern/central LA this evening, then ripple northeastward along the front. By 12Z, the younger low should be over central/east-central MS -- roughly between JAN-MEI -- with cold front near BTR and LFT, to shelf waters offshore from the TX Coast. ...Gulf Coastal Plain, Lower Delta... A prefrontal, southwest/northeast-oriented band of thunderstorms is ongoing from the LA Coast south-southwest of LFT across I-12 between BTR-SIL, becoming more diffuse into southeastern MS. Activity within the band should continue moving quickly northeastward, outpacing a marine/warm front initially apparent over the Lake Pontchartrain and BTR areas. However, embedded cells in the Atchafalaya River region and southwestward should remain in the slowly northeastward-expanding warm sector for at least a few more hours, potentially accessing surface-based effective-inflow parcels. As a combination of theta-e advection and muted diurnal heating strengthen low-level lapse rates/buoyancy somewhat, large-scale support will weaken, as will winds near the top of the boundary layer, shrinking hodographs. While deep shear will remain favorable into afternoon, the other counterbalancing factors, amid a training convective mode, suggest embedded supercell potential, but with severe threat being too uncertain and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. Another round of strong to isolated/embedded severe thunderstorms is possible tonight along or just ahead of the cold front. Somewhat rejuvenated but still marginal severe gust/tornado potential is expected overnight as: 1. The prefrontal boundary from the early convection retreats diffusely inland over LA/MS/AL, 2. Strengthening gradient flow aloft leads to greater deep shear, and 3. The LLJ increases again, lengthening and somewhat enlarging hodographs. Offsetting processes will include weak low/middle-level lapse rates (though with upper 60s/low-70s surface dewpoints, MLCAPE may remain near 1000 J/kg into much of the night), as well as weak near-surface winds and the presence of generally messy convective modes. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/01/2023 Read more