Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Dec 07 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies today which will result in development of a surface cyclone across central Plains late in the period. Dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and extending as far north as the southeast plains of Colorado. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail will be possible late night Friday from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma through central Arkansas. ...Synopsis... Guidance has clearly trended over the past 36 hours to multiple distinct shortwave impulses ejecting within the broad upper trough over the western and central states. The lead impulse in the Four Corners area at 12Z Friday will amplify across the central Great Plains towards the Mid-MS Valley. Meanwhile, a secondary impulse and attendant speed max will hold back within the basal portion of the broad trough over the Four Corners. The net result will be more prominent surface cyclogenesis occurring ahead of the lead wave, mainly on Friday night across the Lower MO Valley towards southern Lake MI. A surface cold front will sweep more rapidly east in vicinity of the cyclone track, and slow its southeast push across the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex area late in the period. ...Northeast TX to AR... The aforementioned synoptic trends suggest that forcing for ascent appears to be limited across the modifying warm sector from east TX towards the Ozarks on Friday night. Timing of the wave ejections indicate near-neutral mid-level height change is anticipated overnight in this region. With substantial modification necessary of the continental polar air mass that is across the northwest Gulf coast, more than meager surface-based instability will likely struggle to advect north to/beyond the Ozarks. Within a southwesterly low to mid-level flow regime, moderate MLCIN and low RH above the capping inversion suggest that warm-sector thunderstorm initiation ahead of the cold front is unlikely through 12Z Saturday. Low-level warm theta-e advection could still be adequate for isolated slightly elevated thunderstorms centered on the southeast OK/Ark-La-Tex region deeper into AR overnight, with a primary threat of localized severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Midlevel speed max, currently off the Pacific Coast, is forecast to translate inland across northern CA early in the period before advancing into the central High Plains by 08/00z. A secondary speed max will then dig southeast and increase as it approaches the Great Basin during the latter half of the period. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across much of the interior West along with significantly cooler midlevel temperatures/steep lapse rates. While weak buoyancy may permit shallow convection across this region, it appears the greatest risk for lightning will occur with convection near the coast where marine influences will contribute to a bit more buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early, in association with the aforementioned lead speed max, and with the secondary short-wave trough Thursday evening. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Midlevel speed max, currently off the Pacific Coast, is forecast to translate inland across northern CA early in the period before advancing into the central High Plains by 08/00z. A secondary speed max will then dig southeast and increase as it approaches the Great Basin during the latter half of the period. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across much of the interior West along with significantly cooler midlevel temperatures/steep lapse rates. While weak buoyancy may permit shallow convection across this region, it appears the greatest risk for lightning will occur with convection near the coast where marine influences will contribute to a bit more buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early, in association with the aforementioned lead speed max, and with the secondary short-wave trough Thursday evening. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Midlevel speed max, currently off the Pacific Coast, is forecast to translate inland across northern CA early in the period before advancing into the central High Plains by 08/00z. A secondary speed max will then dig southeast and increase as it approaches the Great Basin during the latter half of the period. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across much of the interior West along with significantly cooler midlevel temperatures/steep lapse rates. While weak buoyancy may permit shallow convection across this region, it appears the greatest risk for lightning will occur with convection near the coast where marine influences will contribute to a bit more buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early, in association with the aforementioned lead speed max, and with the secondary short-wave trough Thursday evening. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Midlevel speed max, currently off the Pacific Coast, is forecast to translate inland across northern CA early in the period before advancing into the central High Plains by 08/00z. A secondary speed max will then dig southeast and increase as it approaches the Great Basin during the latter half of the period. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across much of the interior West along with significantly cooler midlevel temperatures/steep lapse rates. While weak buoyancy may permit shallow convection across this region, it appears the greatest risk for lightning will occur with convection near the coast where marine influences will contribute to a bit more buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early, in association with the aforementioned lead speed max, and with the secondary short-wave trough Thursday evening. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Pacific Northwest... Midlevel speed max, currently off the Pacific Coast, is forecast to translate inland across northern CA early in the period before advancing into the central High Plains by 08/00z. A secondary speed max will then dig southeast and increase as it approaches the Great Basin during the latter half of the period. Strong 12hr height falls will spread across much of the interior West along with significantly cooler midlevel temperatures/steep lapse rates. While weak buoyancy may permit shallow convection across this region, it appears the greatest risk for lightning will occur with convection near the coast where marine influences will contribute to a bit more buoyancy. Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early, in association with the aforementioned lead speed max, and with the secondary short-wave trough Thursday evening. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible across portions of the northern Pacific Coastal region tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a lead short-wave trough ejecting inland across northern CA, arcing northwest off the OR/WA Coasts. Isolated flashes of lightning have been noted immediately ahead of the short wave, and primarily offshore, west of OR. Profiles will cool/steepen overnight as 500mb temperatures lower to -30C across western OR/WA, with values at least -20C north of the jet over northern CA. As a result, weak buoyancy will continue to favor some risk for isolated thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible across portions of the northern Pacific Coastal region tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a lead short-wave trough ejecting inland across northern CA, arcing northwest off the OR/WA Coasts. Isolated flashes of lightning have been noted immediately ahead of the short wave, and primarily offshore, west of OR. Profiles will cool/steepen overnight as 500mb temperatures lower to -30C across western OR/WA, with values at least -20C north of the jet over northern CA. As a result, weak buoyancy will continue to favor some risk for isolated thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible across portions of the northern Pacific Coastal region tonight. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a lead short-wave trough ejecting inland across northern CA, arcing northwest off the OR/WA Coasts. Isolated flashes of lightning have been noted immediately ahead of the short wave, and primarily offshore, west of OR. Profiles will cool/steepen overnight as 500mb temperatures lower to -30C across western OR/WA, with values at least -20C north of the jet over northern CA. As a result, weak buoyancy will continue to favor some risk for isolated thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 12/07/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 6 22:34:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 6 22:34:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A strong mid-level jet streak will cross nrthern California tomorrow and carve out a large trough across the southern Plains on Friday. This trough will become neutrally tilted across the eastern CONUS before eventually becoming negatively tilted across the Northeast. In the wake of this mid-level trough, a strong cold front will bring a continental polar airmass across much of the United States. ...Day 3/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas... Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Friday. A weak lee cyclone may lead to some tightening pressure gradient. However, strong winds will primarily be driven by a moderate to strong mid-level jet overspreading a deeply mixed airmass with stronger winds reaching the surface. In addition, 10 to 15F above normal temperatures will lead to relative humidity in the teens and further support some fire weather threat. ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels continue to cure and may support some fire spread and an increase in initial attack. Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day4/Sat in portions of the TX/OK Panhandle and vicinity. However, these conditions are expected in the post-frontal airmass where temperatures will be cool and therefore, fire weather concerns should be reduced. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow across the Central Rockies may result in some weak cyclogenesis on Sunday across the central Plains. This may cause some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. However, confidence in stronger wind speeds is not high enough to necessitate probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A strong mid-level jet streak will cross nrthern California tomorrow and carve out a large trough across the southern Plains on Friday. This trough will become neutrally tilted across the eastern CONUS before eventually becoming negatively tilted across the Northeast. In the wake of this mid-level trough, a strong cold front will bring a continental polar airmass across much of the United States. ...Day 3/Fri Southwest into Far West Texas... Dry and windy conditions are expected across southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Friday. A weak lee cyclone may lead to some tightening pressure gradient. However, strong winds will primarily be driven by a moderate to strong mid-level jet overspreading a deeply mixed airmass with stronger winds reaching the surface. In addition, 10 to 15F above normal temperatures will lead to relative humidity in the teens and further support some fire weather threat. ERC values remain near seasonable normals, but dormant, fine fuels continue to cure and may support some fire spread and an increase in initial attack. Some dry and breezy conditions are also possible on Day4/Sat in portions of the TX/OK Panhandle and vicinity. However, these conditions are expected in the post-frontal airmass where temperatures will be cool and therefore, fire weather concerns should be reduced. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded in the northwesterly flow across the Central Rockies may result in some weak cyclogenesis on Sunday across the central Plains. This may cause some dry and breezy conditions across the southern High Plains. However, confidence in stronger wind speeds is not high enough to necessitate probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 12/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more