Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a stable pattern will exist across the CONUS, primarily due to high pressure centered over the Southeast. A large upper trough over the Northeast will gradually lift northeastward, with offshore surface winds across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and Rockies, with an upper ridge along the West Coast. As such, thunderstorms are not forecast due to a lack of instability across the entire CONUS. ..Jewell.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL FL... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two and isolated damaging winds are possible through this afternoon across central Florida. ...Central FL this afternoon... A broad midlevel trough from the Ozarks to the OH Valley will progress eastward to the Atlantic coast by late tonight, as an associated surface cold front moves southeastward across central/south FL. A subtle/embedded speed max over the northern Gulf of Mexico will move over north FL this afternoon, and this will help focus thunderstorm development through the day across central FL, both along and south of the cold front. Midlevel lapse rates will not be steep, but some cloud breaks north of ongoing convection and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg ahead of the cold front, and somewhat larger buoyancy along the southern fringes of the ongoing convection in central FL. The storms west of Tampa have shown some increase in intensity along the front, and additional storm development is possible along the southern periphery of the ongoing storms across central FL. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be sufficient for some organized/rotating storms, while low-level hodograph curvature/SRH will remain relatively larger through early afternoon and begin to decrease by mid-late afternoon as low-level flow veers. The net result will be the potential for line segments or supercells capable of producing isolated wind damage. A brief tornado or two will also be possible, focused a little more toward the Atlantic coast where low-level shear will be modestly stronger through more of the afternoon. ..Thompson/Moore.. 01/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 01/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified large-scale trough will continue eastward across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive arctic air mass shifts east-southeastward from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Cold surface temperatures accompanying the arctic air mass will limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more