Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of coastal/northwest Washington. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low Sunday across a large majority of the CONUS, with one or two possible exceptions. An upper trough, with associated mid/upper-level jet, is forecast to gradually amplify over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through the period. Mid-level temperatures should gradually cool while lapse rates aloft steepen as this amplification occurs. Low-topped convection may eventually develop offshore Sunday night and spread across parts of coastal/northwest WA. Latest NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest some chance for updrafts to extend deep enough to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. A lightning flash or two also cannot be ruled out across parts of northern CA through the day as weak MUCAPE develops with diurnal heating. But with weak forcing aloft, overall thunderstorm coverage across this area should remain below 10%. ..Gleason.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... Northwesterly flow aloft is expected across the western and central CONUS in the wake of a departing eastern US trough and surface cold front. Building high pressure should keep winds modest over the central US. However, stronger surface winds are expected along the fringes of the high across the Plains and Gulf Coast. Some fire-weather concerns are possible, though limited overlap with dry fuels should keep conditions localized. ...Central/Southern High Plains... While high pressure settles over the eastern half of the US and into the Great Basin, strong downslope winds are expected to develop in the lee of the Rockies to the West. Aided by increasingly strong northwesterly flow aloft and a subtle lee trough, gusty surface winds of 20-25 mph are possible. Somewhat drier conditions are also expected with minimum RH values as low as 20-25% briefly possible through the afternoon hours. Elevated to locally critical meteorological conditions appear likely across parts of CO, KS, NM and NE through this afternoon. However, fuels are only partially receptive to fire spread. This suggests fire-weather concerns should remain more localized. ...Southeast... As offshore flow continues behind the departing cold front, gusty afternoon winds of 10-15 mph are possible over parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Coincident with drier than normal conditions and RH values below 30%, some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, recent rainfall should keep any fire-weather concerns localized due to limited overlap with only marginally dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Carolinas... A deep upper trough is rotating across the eastern states today, with an associated area of large scale lift and precipitation crossing the Appalachians. Mid-level temperatures are unusually cold across the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, with 500mb temperatures of -28 to -30C. Considerable daytime heating over NC/SC will steepen low-level lapse rates and result in marginal CAPE around peak-heating - despite very meager low level moisture. Most 12z model guidance and machine-learning tools suggest potential for isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the 21-02z period. No severe storms are anticipated. ..Hart/Bentley.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon. ...Discussion... Gradual deamplification of the upper flow field over the U.S. is expected today, as a trough over the eastern U.S. advances eastward, and eventually offshore. In its wake, fast northwesterly flow will prevail across essentially the entire country. At the surface, high pressure will largely prevail, with the exception of a weak lee trough over the High Plains. With a cold front shifting eastward across the western Atlantic and southward across the Gulf of Mexico, little potential for thunder is evident across most of the country. One exception will be across portions of the Carolinas and vicinity, as a short-wave trough currently crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys continues southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Cold air/steep lapse rates aloft associated with this system will overspread the Middle and Southern Atlantic Coastal areas, and help contribute to weak destabilization across the Carolinas this afternoon. The weak instability, combined with QG ascent, may aid in the development of low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms that may linger into the evening before weakening/moving offshore. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss/Broyles.. 02/24/2024 Read more