Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A mid-level jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Wednesday with a surface cyclone in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. ...D3/Wed - Southern High Plains... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the southern High Plains amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. This will lead to a broad region of 20 to 25 mph sustained winds and relative humidity around 12 to 18 percent. Fuels in the region are critically dry with several fires present on shortwave infrared satellite this afternoon. Additional drying over the next 48 hours will prime fuels and further support the potential for large fires. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A mid-level jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Wednesday with a surface cyclone in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. ...D3/Wed - Southern High Plains... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the southern High Plains amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. This will lead to a broad region of 20 to 25 mph sustained winds and relative humidity around 12 to 18 percent. Fuels in the region are critically dry with several fires present on shortwave infrared satellite this afternoon. Additional drying over the next 48 hours will prime fuels and further support the potential for large fires. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A mid-level jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Wednesday with a surface cyclone in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. ...D3/Wed - Southern High Plains... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the southern High Plains amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. This will lead to a broad region of 20 to 25 mph sustained winds and relative humidity around 12 to 18 percent. Fuels in the region are critically dry with several fires present on shortwave infrared satellite this afternoon. Additional drying over the next 48 hours will prime fuels and further support the potential for large fires. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z A mid-level jet will overspread the southern High Plains on Wednesday with a surface cyclone in the vicinity of the OK/TX Panhandle. ...D3/Wed - Southern High Plains... A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will overspread the southern High Plains amid a deeply mixed boundary layer. This will lead to a broad region of 20 to 25 mph sustained winds and relative humidity around 12 to 18 percent. Fuels in the region are critically dry with several fires present on shortwave infrared satellite this afternoon. Additional drying over the next 48 hours will prime fuels and further support the potential for large fires. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Removed the Critical area from Far West Texas and vicinity. Forecast winds have trended down. This, combined with somewhat sparse fuels in the region, warranted a downgrade. Expanded the Elevated delineation into central and eastern Kansas. Elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected to the south of a weak surface low as it moves through northern Kansas. Critical conditions are likely, but are only expected to last 1 or 2 hours. In addition, there has been significant precipitation in this area within the last week which has somewhat muted fuel receptiveness. For these reasons, a Critical area is not needed, but an Elevated area seems warranted. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Removed the Critical area from Far West Texas and vicinity. Forecast winds have trended down. This, combined with somewhat sparse fuels in the region, warranted a downgrade. Expanded the Elevated delineation into central and eastern Kansas. Elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected to the south of a weak surface low as it moves through northern Kansas. Critical conditions are likely, but are only expected to last 1 or 2 hours. In addition, there has been significant precipitation in this area within the last week which has somewhat muted fuel receptiveness. For these reasons, a Critical area is not needed, but an Elevated area seems warranted. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Removed the Critical area from Far West Texas and vicinity. Forecast winds have trended down. This, combined with somewhat sparse fuels in the region, warranted a downgrade. Expanded the Elevated delineation into central and eastern Kansas. Elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected to the south of a weak surface low as it moves through northern Kansas. Critical conditions are likely, but are only expected to last 1 or 2 hours. In addition, there has been significant precipitation in this area within the last week which has somewhat muted fuel receptiveness. For these reasons, a Critical area is not needed, but an Elevated area seems warranted. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z Removed the Critical area from Far West Texas and vicinity. Forecast winds have trended down. This, combined with somewhat sparse fuels in the region, warranted a downgrade. Expanded the Elevated delineation into central and eastern Kansas. Elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected to the south of a weak surface low as it moves through northern Kansas. Critical conditions are likely, but are only expected to last 1 or 2 hours. In addition, there has been significant precipitation in this area within the last week which has somewhat muted fuel receptiveness. For these reasons, a Critical area is not needed, but an Elevated area seems warranted. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface cyclone is expected to develop across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon, with increasing south to southwesterly flow across much of the central and southern Plains. Gradual moisture return will begin across central Texas into central Oklahoma. Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected across portions of the southern High Plains behind a surface dryline located across west Texas/western Oklahoma. Westerly downslope flow will prevail behind the dryline, with Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas and northward into the Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Critical conditions are most likely across far southeastern New Mexico into western Texas from Dell Valley into the Guadelupe Mountains and Trans-Pecos region. In this region, deeply mixed profiles will support relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 20-25 mph amid ERCs nearing the 80th percentile. Outside of this region, relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will still be likely, but ensemble signal for sustained critical winds is low. Locally Critical fire weather conditions will be possible, with potential for further expansion of the Critical risk with subsequent updates. The Elevated risk was maintained with this outlook, with minor expansions into the Texas Panhandle/far western Oklahoma and further west into central New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... Expanded the Critical area into eastern Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance showing sustained winds up to 25 mph and relative humidity in the teens. In addition, expanded the Elevated area slightly farther east into Iowa and southwest Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... Expanded the Critical area into eastern Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance showing sustained winds up to 25 mph and relative humidity in the teens. In addition, expanded the Elevated area slightly farther east into Iowa and southwest Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... Expanded the Critical area into eastern Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance showing sustained winds up to 25 mph and relative humidity in the teens. In addition, expanded the Elevated area slightly farther east into Iowa and southwest Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... Expanded the Critical area into eastern Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance showing sustained winds up to 25 mph and relative humidity in the teens. In addition, expanded the Elevated area slightly farther east into Iowa and southwest Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... Expanded the Critical area into eastern Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance showing sustained winds up to 25 mph and relative humidity in the teens. In addition, expanded the Elevated area slightly farther east into Iowa and southwest Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...MUCH OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND EASTERN NEBRASKA... Expanded the Critical area into eastern Nebraska based on morning high resolution guidance showing sustained winds up to 25 mph and relative humidity in the teens. In addition, expanded the Elevated area slightly farther east into Iowa and southwest Minnesota. ..Bentley.. 03/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave will move into the Great Basin on Monday, with westerly flow increasing across the Rockies and strengthening lee troughing across the Plains. This will result in strong downslope warming and drying across the central and south-central Plains. Two regions of Critical fire weather conditions are expected, with more widespread Elevated fire weather concerns across much of the central High Plains into the southern High Plains. ...Eastern Wyoming into far southwest South Dakota and the northwest Nebraska Panhandle... Westerly downslope flow (sustained around 20-25 mph) across the high terrain in eastern Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota will allow to relative-humidity reductions around 15-20 percent (locally as low as 10 percent). Rainfall deficits over the last month have led to fine fuels sufficiently dry to support fire spread. As such, a Critical delineation was maintained in this region. ...Far northeast New Mexico into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and much of central/west-central Kansas... Westerly downslope flow (sustained at 20-25 mph) across eastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles will result in relative-humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Early spring green up of fine fuels, which were subsequently cured by recent freezing temperatures, has led to large fire activity in the last month across these regions. A Critical delineation was maintained across this region. Critical conditions will extend into portions of western and west-central Kansas where afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph). Fuel guidance suggests that fine fuels in this region will are sufficiently dry enough to support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens. Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska -- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool, moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens. Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska -- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool, moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens. Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska -- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool, moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS will lose some amplitude temporarily, as an intense, synoptic-scale cyclone and accompanying trough exit New England and move farther offshore over the Atlantic. While passing over a dry/stable boundary layer left by recent cold-frontal passage, an upstream shortwave trough now over the southern Plains will have no substantive convective consequence, as it moves eastward across the Southeast and weakens. Another in a series of shortwave troughs -- emanating from the base of a persistent larger-scale trough over AK and the Gulf of Alaska -- is moving across the interior Northwest. In the 03Z-06Z time frame, the next in the series should move ashore, followed early on day 2 by yet another. Low/middle-level destabilization preceding each trough should lead to steepening lapse rates, atop a cool, moist marine layer, with minimal MLCINH. Cumulonimbi should result that are relatively shallow, but still potentially capable of extending into lightning-producing icing layers on an isolated basis. As such, a few flashes may be noted near the coast from northwestern OR northward, this evening and overnight. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep, positively tilted upper trough will extend over the western CONUS early Thursday. This upper troughing will be anchored by a closed low over the Lower CO River Valley, with moderate to strong mid-level flow extending from this low eastward/northeastward across the Southwest and central/southern Plains into the Mid MS Valley. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to progress northeastward within this belt of stronger flow. Timing of this shortwave varies within the guidance, but the general forecast evolution of an associated surface low moving northeastward just ahead of the low and attendant cold front sweeping southeastward across the central and southern Plains remains the same. A moderately moist and unstable airmass will precede this front, and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of it on D4/Thursday. Uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing and whether or not open warm-sector initiation in plausible. A likely forecast scenario is for late morning/early afternoon development near the triple point, with storms then continuing along the outflow across southeast OK and central/east TX. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft and moderate buoyancy will likely result in strong to severe thunderstorms. Large hail and damaging gusts currently appear to be the main severe hazards. This cold front is expected to continue eastward/southeastward across the TN Valley and Southeast on D5/Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, but limited heating and scant buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. Greater buoyancy and shear are possible from the TX Hill Country into the TX Coastal Plains, supporting potential severe thunderstorms. However, uncertainty exists regarding frontal timing as well as location and coverage of early day precipitation, limiting overall forecast confidence. Some thunderstorms are possible across the southern Plains on D6/Saturday, but forecast confidence decreases after D5/Friday, with medium-range guidance varying considerably on the evolution of the western CONUS upper low. Read more