Severe Storms

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..03/14/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-111-121-127-139- 149-161-177-197-209-140140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LYON MIAMI MORRIS OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-087-089-095-101- 107-115-117-121-159-165-175-177-195-140140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON COOPER DAVIESS DEKALB HOLT HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON Read more

MD 0221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132331Z - 140100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Conditional severe risk through the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Towering cu can be observed near the dryline across northeastern Oklahoma as of 23z. Convective initiation within this region has be subdued by a strong mid-level capping inversion in place much of the afternoon. Surface objective analysis would indicate some weakening of the mid-level capping north of the I-40 corridor, further supported in cumulus fields across eastern Osage County and Pottawatomie/Lincoln County. Low level moisture remains limited, which is likely leading to very high cloud bases. Should a thunderstorm develop, the main threats would be for isolated large hail and gusty winds. Nonetheless, upper-level support is increasing across the Oklahoma/Kansas border this evening. Overall, confidence in thunderstorm development remains low and a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 35599543 35949531 36459519 36959514 37569514 37699539 37729578 37709629 37399656 36879668 35999675 35269691 35219665 35279600 35599543 Read more

WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-157-163-189-140040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON JERSEY MADISON MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-113-125-131-135-137-139-141- 151-161-163-173-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-140040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE PHELPS PIKE RALLS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

MD 0220 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 37... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Northern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 37... Valid 132329Z - 140130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 37 continues. SUMMARY...A potential for very large hail, wind damage and a tornado or two is expected to develop across parts of northeast Kansas over the next hour, extending eastward into parts of north-central Missouri. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Topeka shows a cluster of intensifying convection across parts Geary and Morris Counties in Kansas. These cells are expected to grow upscale into a rotating storm over the next hour. Any storm that can become mature should eventually turn to the right to a more east-northeasterly direction. RAP analysis suggests this convection is near a maximum in instability, where MLCAPE is estimated to above 2000 J/kg. In addition, the Topeka WSR-88D VWP has veering winds with height in the lowest 2 km, with 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. This, along with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range will support supercell development. Very large hail and a tornado will be possible with this storm, or with additional intense cells that mature over the next hour or two. Additional storms are expected to develop further to the east, from near the Kansas City Metro eastward into north-central Missouri. MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, along with moderate deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, evident on forecast soundings, will also likely support supercell development. Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats, although a brief tornado will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38689488 38619597 38669644 38959677 39359665 39489620 39499490 39459354 39359322 39089310 38749329 38719364 38689488 Read more

WW 35 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 132050Z - 140400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 35 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Illinois Central and Eastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase across the region late this afternoon through early evening, including parts of the I-70/I-55 corridors. Large hail is expected to be the most common risk, with some potential for damaging winds and possibly a tornado into early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west of Columbia MO to 20 miles east of Scott Afb IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 13 23:01:02 UTC 2024.

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0037 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0037 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 37 TORNADO KS MO 132245Z - 140600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 37 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Northern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 545 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will affect the watch area through the evening, with a few supercells possible. Very large hail and a tornado or two may occur with the strongest cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Manhattan KS to 60 miles east southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35...WW 36... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

MD 0219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0219 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast kansas and western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 132054Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon along a warm-frontal corridor across northern KS and western MO. Supercells capable of hazards are likely. A WW will likely be needed late this afternoon or early this evening. DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, regional satellite showed a steadily deepening cumulus field along a sharpening warm-frontal zone across parts of northern KS and western MO. Towering cumulus was also noted along a trailing dryline into parts of southeastern KS. Water-vapor imagery shows large-scale ascent from a passing shortwave-trough will move overhead late this afternoon and continue through the evening. With strong low-level moisture advection ongoing, the air mass along and south of the front should continue to destabilize as ascent and diurnal heating work to remove inhibition. Surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F should support 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 40-50 kt of effective shear. Storm organization into supercells appears likely. Experimental WOFS and other Hi-res guidance suggest storm development may be delayed until more robust ascent (currently depicted over eastern CO/western KS) arrives late this afternoon into the early evening hours. With 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22 C and low/mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km, severe hail (some 2+ inches) and damaging gusts appear likely with the strongest storms. Initially the tornado threat is more uncertain given the relatively modest boundary-layer moisture and storm motions potentially crossing the front. However, backed surface winds and relatively large forecast ESRH of 200-400 m2/s2 along the warm front may support a risk for a couple tornadoes with the more organized supercells. The tornado threat should increase into the evening as dewpoint spreads decrease and hodographs enlarge coincident with enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet. Given the increasingly favorable environment for severe storms, a weather watch will be needed sometime this afternoon. Exact timing may be somewhat uncertain, but current projections suggest storm initiation is possible by 22-23z. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38049610 38499728 38729809 38889839 39319849 39769806 40149717 40209671 40239591 40209526 40059456 39719332 39129257 38799264 38319322 38059511 38049610 Read more

WW 0035 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 35 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..03/13/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 35 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-027-083-119-133-157-163-189-132340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CLINTON JERSEY MADISON MONROE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-113-125-131-135-137-139-141- 151-161-163-173-183-186-187-189-219-221-510-132340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON LINCOLN MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OSAGE PHELPS PIKE RALLS ST. CHARLES STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS WARREN WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0036 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0036 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0036 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 36 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 132230Z - 140500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 36 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Kansas Southern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the late afternoon and evening across the watch area. A few of the storms will likely become severe, with large hail the primary concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of Hill City KS to 15 miles south southeast of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 35... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL MO AND WEST-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Areas affected...Portions of east-central MO and west-central IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increasing threat for mainly large hail will exist with storms that should develop this afternoon. Watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to advect northward along a warm front across central/eastern MO, with surface dewpoints generally increasing into the mid to upper 50s F. Recent visible satellite imagery shows a cu field gradually deepening and becoming more agitated over east-central MO in tandem with this returning moisture. Eventual thunderstorm development seems probable by 21-22Z (4-5 PM CDT) as parcels reach their convective temperature amid an uncapped and moderately unstable airmass. The presence of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, with moderately steepened mid-level lapse rates, will likely encourage robust updrafts. Although low/mid-level flow remains fairly modest at the moment, sufficient deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt should support updraft organization/rotation and some supercell potential. The main severe risk appears to be large hail with any thunderstorms that can develop and be sustained this afternoon and early evening. But, some threat for strong to locally damaging winds may also exist. Depending on convective trends, watch issuance may be needed this afternoon. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37789157 37979217 38479251 38979242 39449217 39539181 39629153 39439018 39198943 38908926 38498929 38198967 37959003 37819047 37789157 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Significant wetting rain is expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains to start the extended forecast period. This will drastically increase fuel moisture across the region and limit the fire weather threat for this weekend into next week. The cut-off low which will bring this cool and wet pattern will persist through at least the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to benign fire weather conditions through the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Significant wetting rain is expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains to start the extended forecast period. This will drastically increase fuel moisture across the region and limit the fire weather threat for this weekend into next week. The cut-off low which will bring this cool and wet pattern will persist through at least the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to benign fire weather conditions through the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Significant wetting rain is expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains to start the extended forecast period. This will drastically increase fuel moisture across the region and limit the fire weather threat for this weekend into next week. The cut-off low which will bring this cool and wet pattern will persist through at least the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to benign fire weather conditions through the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Significant wetting rain is expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains to start the extended forecast period. This will drastically increase fuel moisture across the region and limit the fire weather threat for this weekend into next week. The cut-off low which will bring this cool and wet pattern will persist through at least the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to benign fire weather conditions through the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z Significant wetting rain is expected across the Southwest and southern High Plains to start the extended forecast period. This will drastically increase fuel moisture across the region and limit the fire weather threat for this weekend into next week. The cut-off low which will bring this cool and wet pattern will persist through at least the middle of next week. This pattern will lead to benign fire weather conditions through the extended forecast period. ..Bentley.. 03/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more