Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ...Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ...Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ...Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ...Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, including an organizing cluster or two, are expected from central Texas coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast Sunday morning into the early evening. Damaging gusts and hail are possible with this activity from the Middle/Upper Texas Coast eastward along the central Gulf Coast vicinity. ...Gulf Coast... A series of midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced mid/upper level westerly flow over the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Sunday. Convection will likely be ongoing somewhere from east TX toward coastal LA and the adjacent Gulf waters during the morning hours. However, large spread continues in 12z CAM guidance regarding placement of early convection and subsequent downstream evolution through the morning and into the afternoon. Height tendencies will remain fairly neutral through much of the period across the Gulf Coast. However, a cold front will be draped across the northern Gulf to near the LA and Mid/Upper TX Coasts Sunday morning. The front will not move much or only slowly sag southward through the morning. Meanwhile, most guidance depicts a cluster or small MCS developing/ongoing near the TX coast early in the period. Depending on the surface boundary position, and where exactly this convection is located, severe thunderstorm potential is possible along the Gulf Coast through the afternoon as convection shifts east. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and there is some potential severe potential will remain just offshore. Additionally, given timing of convection during the morning, degree of downstream destabilization and impact of low-level inhibition due to limited heating foster additional uncertainty. If the surface boundary remains inland, supporting a very moist boundary-layer, favorable vertical shear will support organized convection. The main concern with storms, especially if a small MCS or convective line develops, will be strong gusts/locally damaging winds. Enhanced 0-1 km SRH within the frontal zone also may support a brief spin-up. Given aforementioned uncertainties in placement, timing, destabilization, etc., will maintain Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk. If confidence increases a small area of the central Gulf Coast (southeast LA, far southern MS/AL) may need outlook upgrade in later outlooks. ...Central Texas... Elevated thunderstorms are expected during the morning and afternoon. While the surface cold front will sag southward through the day, warm advection and abundant midlevel moisture atop the cooler boundary-layer will remain in place. Modest midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km and favorable vertical shear will support organized cells with some potential for sporadic hail approaching 1 inch diameter. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) as been expanded westward into parts of central TX to account for low-end hail potential. ..Leitman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A cold front will move through portions of the Plains today. In the wake of the front breezy northwesterly winds will occur across much of the northern/central Plains. RH could become marginally reduced by the afternoon from western South Dakota into western/central Nebraska. With some cloud cover lingering into the late morning and early afternoon, it is not certain how low RH will fall. Values near 20% are possible at least locally. Winds of 15-20 mph are also possible, though the strongest pressure gradient will be offset from the diurnal RH minimum. Overall, locally elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...TX... Morning radar and satellite imagery show widespread cloud cover and scattered convection across much of central TX, in a broad/weak low and mid level warm advection regime. This trend will continue through much of the day, limiting heating and overall destabilization. While most of the daytime activity will be non-severe, an occasional strong storm may develop in the MRGL risk area capable of hail. By late afternoon, a shortwave trough now over Baja CA will approach the mountains of northern Mexico, aiding in the development of strong to severe storms. This activity will spread across the Rio Grande and into TX during the evening, while increasing low-level warm advection help to initiate storms ahead of the main activity. All of these storms will move across the SLGT risk area during the night. While low-level destabilization will be limited, steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles will promote supercell and bowing structures capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms may persist through the pre-dawn hours into southwest LA with a continued MRGL risk of hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Weinman.. 03/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are forecast across portions of south central/southeast Texas late today into tonight. ...South TX through tonight... A closed midlevel low will meander over AZ through tonight, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary near the Gulf coast and beneath the southern stream/subtropical jet. Outflow with convection yesterday and early this morning has complicated the surface pattern, with the effective front extending from just off the LA coast to near the TX coast. The deeper baroclinic zone appears to be a bit farther inland over south TX, and there will be some potential for sharpening of the front later this afternoon with surface heating in the wake of a morning MCS/wake low now moving off the lower TX coast. The details of convective initiation/evolution are unclear this morning given the influence of the ongoing convection near the coast and uncertainty regarding boundary locations. Assuming sufficient recovery inland over south TX, the approach of subtle speed maxima within the subtropical jet atop weak frontal convergence could support additional thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight. Other storms could also form in the weak upslope flow on the east slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and move into south TX tonight. The northeast edge of the steeper midlevel lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints of 65-70 will contribute to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length for supercells. Large hail (1-2" diameter) will be the main threat, though a cluster or two could persist overnight with the potential to produce isolated wind damage. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/16/2024 Read more