Severe Storms

WW 68 TORNADO IL MO 012150Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 68 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 450 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central Illinois Eastern Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon from 450 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon and evening, building eastward along a boundary across central Missouri/Illinois. Supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of Jefferson City MO to 35 miles south of Danville IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...WW 65...WW 66...WW 67... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW HUF TO 25 WSW IND TO 20 ENE IND TO 20 SSW MIE TO 45 NNW DAY. ..BENTLEY..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-013-021-027-029-031-041-047-055-059-065-071-079-081-083- 093-097-101-105-109-119-135-137-139-145-153-161-167-177- 020440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN CLAY DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HANCOCK HENRY JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MARION MARTIN MONROE MORGAN OWEN RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN UNION VIGO WAYNE OHC017-037-061-109-113-135-149-165-020440- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER DARKE HAMILTON Read more

MD 0334 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0844 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020144Z - 020315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of central and southern TX ahead of the cold front. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main threat with the more intense storms. A WW issuance is unlikely since the severe threat should remain isolated. DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms and transient supercells have developed ahead of a cold front across central into southern TX toward the Rio Grande, and are poised to move eastward into an increasingly buoyant airmass. Upper 70s to low 80s F surface temperatures and 70+ F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates are contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (per 01Z mesoanalysis). Regional VADs and 01Z mesoanalysis show elongated hodographs with some low-level curvature, but also considerable CINH in the 850-700 mb layer (as also shown by RAP forecast soundings). Furthermore, regional radar data suggests that many of these storms are anafrontal, and are occurring in a region of weaker deep-layer ascent compared to areas farther north. Large hail and damaging gusts may occur with some of the stronger storms if they can mature and sustain themselves this evening. A WW issuance appears unlikely since the overall severe threat should remain isolated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 28660046 29999980 30929845 31389674 31329574 30939560 30259576 29489636 28969700 28719778 28489944 28660046 Read more

MD 0333 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 65... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL OK INTO NORTHERN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0820 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...much of central OK into northern TX Concerning...Tornado Watch 65... Valid 020120Z - 020245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 65 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 65. All severe hazards remain a concern, including with new storms developing over southwestern into central OK. Temporal extensions of the ongoing watch may be needed for central into northeast OK. DISCUSSION...New convective development is underway across southwestern into central OK in the wake of earlier storms. These newer storms are forming immediately ahead of the cold front and are progressing toward a modestly buoyant airmass (characterized by 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). The 00Z observed sounding from OUN depicted a cooling boundary layer, but with steep lapse rates aloft. The associated observed hodograph showed sizeable low-level curvature and mid-level elongation, which would support possible supercell development accompanied by a threat for damaging gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. As such, portions of Tornado Watch 65 over central into northeast OK will need to be extended in time to address the severe threat with storms developing in southwestern OK. Farther southeast, a new WW issuance will be needed to address the severe threat later this evening. ..Squitieri.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33449932 34639884 35829770 36819611 36899533 36559512 35449535 34759561 33759632 33329707 33059840 33449932 Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W JLN TO 30 NNW JLN TO 35 SW SZL TO 20 NW COU. ..BENTLEY..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC021-037-020340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-053-057-059-077-083-085-089-097-109- 119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-213-217-020340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

MD 0331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 020101Z - 020230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of northeastern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma. Severe hail and wind are the main threats, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is likely over the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...A QLCS with embedded supercells is progressing across the metroplex, with copious amounts of 2-3 inch hail reported with the northernmost supercell. These storms are advancing eastward across a buoyant warm sector, overspread by 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear, so the severe threat is expected to persist with the ongoing storms for several more hours. The 00Z FWD observed sounding showed 9 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs. As such, embedded supercells should continue east of the ongoing watches with the potential for severe (50+ kt) gusts and large hail (with some 1-2 inch stones possible). Since the storms will be approaching the western extent of a low-level jet, a modest increase in low-level shear may also support the development of a tornado or two. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the impending severe threat. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 31489752 34509559 35359520 35509474 35209434 34359410 33659408 32869445 32119524 31579619 31489752 Read more

MD 0332 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 65...67... FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
Mesoscale Discussion 0332 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...far southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...and far northwest Arkansas. Concerning...Tornado Watch 65...67... Valid 020102Z - 020230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 65, 67 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing across northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...A line of storms with embedded supercells has developed from southeast Kansas into northeast Oklahoma. Low-level shear has increased substantially since 00Z with 0-1 SRH increasing from 150 m2/s2 to 250 m2/s2 on the INX VWP. Low-level shear will increase further as the low-level jet strengthens to near 50 knots later this evening. Therefore, expect the tornado threat to increase as these supercells move northeast. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 35909507 36209655 37309575 37979400 37939269 36869264 35999365 35869444 35909507 Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W JEF TO 20 E COU TO 40 NW STL TO 15 SSW DEC TO 20 ESE DNV. ..BENTLEY..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-061-079- 083-101-117-119-121-133-135-139-159-163-173-189-020340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC027-051-055-071-073-099-105-113-125-135-139-151-161-169-183- 189-219-221-510-020340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN GASCONADE JEFFERSON Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HUF TO 25 WNW IND TO 30 SW MIE TO 30 ENE MIE. ..BENTLEY..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-011-013-021-027-029-031-035-041-047-055-057-059-063-065- 071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-109-119-121-133-135-137-139- 145-153-161-165-167-177-020340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MORGAN OWEN PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN UNION VERMILLION VIGO WAYNE OHC017-037-061-109-113-135-149-165-020340- OH Read more

MD 0330 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...southern Indiana into southwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 020037Z - 020200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this evening and overnight with a primary threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is increasing across central Illinois with these storms eventually moving into Indiana later this evening. Additional development is likely farther east into Indiana and Ohio. Most of these storms will likely remain north of the warm front where storms will predominantly be elevated with a threat for large hail and isolated wind gusts. The 00Z ILN RAOB shows shear which will support supercells and a threat for large hail and potentially some very large hail. Initially the tornado threat should remain limited given the majority of storms should be north of the warm front. However, after midnight, storms are expected to develop/move into areas south of the warm front where the tornado threat will be greater. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued for the initial threat and trends will be monitored if a tornado watch is needed for the activity later tonight. ..Bentley/Hart.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 39918783 40118513 40058376 39528304 38658371 38588474 38438637 38438719 38628782 39918783 Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330 ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-011-013-021-027-029-031-035-041-045-047-055-057-059-063- 065-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135- 137-139-145-153-161-165-167-177-020240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN UNION VERMILLION VIGO WAYNE OHC017-037-061-109-113-135-149-165-020240- Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SZL TO 10 E DNV. ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-061-079- 083-101-117-119-121-133-135-139-159-163-173-189-020240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-105-113-125-135-139-151-161- 163-169-183-189-219-221-510-020240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CNU TO 35 N COU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332 ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-020240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-013-015-029-039-043-053-057-059-077-083-085-089-097- 109-119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-213-217-020240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0070 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0070 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0329 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 68... FOR EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...eastern Missouri across Illinois and into far southwest Indiana. Concerning...Tornado Watch 68... Valid 012345Z - 020115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues. SUMMARY...Training supercells will continue along a warm front from eastern Missouri to far western Indiana this evening. DISCUSSION...A mature supercell is moving through the northern St. Louis suburbs with another supercell east of Jefferson City. Thus far, the maximum hail size with these storms has been golf ball sized, but even larger hail is possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens this evening. A vorticity rich environment along this warm front will support a tornado threat through the evening with the WoFs suggesting a narrow corridor of 2 STP along the front. WoFs 0-2km UH probabilities suggest the lead supercell will continue to support a tornado threat for the next several hours with peak probabilities in south-central Illinois. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38589211 39219064 39688917 39728757 39468704 38678717 38348849 38329008 38259101 38199180 38199212 38289225 38589211 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more