Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST OK AND EAST TX TO SOUTH AL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are expected from parts of east Texas/Oklahoma across the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Gulf Coast States, on Friday afternoon into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will shift east from the Southwest to the South-Central States with a pair of embedded shortwave impulses. Fast mid-level southwesterlies, in excess of 80 kts at 500 mb, will shift from south TX to the Ark-La-Miss by 12Z Saturday. A modest surface cyclone should shift from north TX towards the TN Valley. ...South-Central to Southeast States... Two potential mesoscale corridors of concern remain evident with a probable bimodal distribution to the overall severe threat, encompassed at this time with a relatively broad cat 2-SLGT risk. Clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of central/eastern OK/TX into the Ark-La-Miss. This activity may continue to pose mainly a threat for isolated severe hail as it moves east-northeast, given the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. The southern bounds of this convection should effectively suppress the northern extent of appreciable surface-based destabilization into the Mid-South region. In addition, the low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist through the diurnal heating cycle, yielding convection persisting across MS into AL into the afternoon, further limiting the northward advancement of the surface warm front. Afternoon to evening thunderstorm development should be focused within two regimes. One may evolve in the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss vicinity where large-scale ascent is focused ahead of the surface cyclone and attendant mid-level shortwave impulse. While low-level shear, outside of the composite warm front/remnant outflow boundary, should be modest, elongated and nearly straight-line hodographs will favor potential for a couple, long-track splitting supercells. With steep mid-level lapse rates impinging from the west, the setup may be favorable for a mesoscale corridor of enhanced large hail potential. For this cycle, have added a sig severe hail area. Farther east-southeast towards the central Gulf Coast, low-level shear will be stronger within the warm conveyor, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. With sufficient low-level shear to support updraft rotation, any supercell that develops in this regime could produce a tornado. Convective mode will likely tend to become messy rather quickly, as thunderstorm mergers result in multiple clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Uncertainty over timing of warm-sector surface-based storms further limits confidence in highlighting a mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential. Still, at least a low-probability threat for tornadoes and damaging winds should persist into Friday night across parts of MS/AL, perhaps as far east as GA late. ..Grams.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... CORRECTED FOR WEB GRAPHICS ERRORS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is deepening across the Four Corners region today, with fast mid/high level flow extending across northern Mexico into TX. Beneath this fast zonal flow regime, southerly low-level winds are helping to advect/maintain upper 50s and 60s dewpoints over much of TX and southern OK. Widespread cloud cover this morning will continue to suppress strong heating except across western OK and west-central TX where a dryline will develop. This will lead to multiple mesoscale areas of concern for strong/severe thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. ...Central TX... An area of residual precipitation is affecting north-central TX. The outflow boundary along the southern edge of this convection will likely become the focus for intensifying storms later today. Strong flow aloft will promote supercell structures, with very large hail possible in the initial activity. Storms that can maintain discrete nature may also pose some tornado risk this evening as southerly low-level winds and shear increase. By late evening, remaining storms may track eastward across the SLGT risk area with a threat of damaging wind gusts. ...Western/Central OK... Isolated supercell storms are expected to form along the diffuse dryline over western OK and western north TX. This activity may produce very large hail initially, but an evolution to more linear structures is expected during the early evening, with hail and damaging winds possible. ...Southeast KS/Southwest MO... Dense cloud cover over this region is expected to erode by mid afternoon, allowing some daytime heating and destabilization along a surface boundary extending across eastern KS into western MO. This zone will likely be the focus for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Despite rather weak instability, shear profiles would support supercell structures capable of all severe hazards for several hours through early evening. ..Hart.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive through the period, as a strong shortwave trough exits the northeastern CONUS, and a series of shortwaves traverse an eastward-shifting mean trough across the West. The most important of those shortwaves is evident in moisture-channel imagery over the lower Colorado River Valley region and nearby parts of southern CA. This feature should move eastward across central/southern AZ and adjoining portions of extreme northwestern MX through the period, reaching southern NM and -- at its easternmost part -- the TX/NM border region of the Llano Estacado by 12Z tomorrow. In the foregoing southwest-flow regime aloft, several weak/subtle vorticity lobes should cross portions of the southern Plains States through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over southeastern CO, with wavy and somewhat diffuse warm front across northern parts of the TX Panhandle and OK, to the western Ozarks. The low is expected to migrate across the OK Panhandle to south-central/central KS through the day, with 00Z trailing cold-frontal position across northwestern OK and the northern/central TX Panhandle. By 12Z, the initial low should reach eastern KS or western MO, with cold front to another low near SPS, then across the South Plains to southeastern NM. A dryline should sharpen through the day with continued moist advection to its east. By 00Z, the dryline should extend from the eastern TX Panhandle southward then south-southwestward to northern Coahuila. The cold front will overtake the dryline from north-south across the eastern Panhandle and northwest TX overnight. ...Southern Plains... Isolated, marginally severe hail may occur from elevated thunderstorms now prevalent over portions of the Arklatex to southern Ozarks, eastern OK, and south-central KS, and a zone of steep lapse rates aloft, low-level warm advection and moisture transport above the surface. However, the main severe threat will be later today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- forming along/ahead of the dryline this afternoon and persisting/expanding into the overnight hours -- will be capable of large hail (some potentially 2+ inches in diameter) and occasional damaging to severe gusts. The tornado risk is more sparse and conditional, given a lack of more-robust moisture. A bimodal overall severe-threat distribution still is apparent, with the greatest cumulative convective concentrations likely centered on western OK to southern KS, and that part of west-central to north-central TX in and south of the ongoing convective band. With some reservations, a relative probabilistic minimum will be maintained over the northwest TX region, but with the understanding that any storm forming/sustaining in the environment just east of the dryline still may become a supercell capable of strong-severe gusts and significant hail. Favorable destabilization will develop over the dryline and nearby moist sector by mid/late afternoon, but in different ways from north-south. More sustained/direct insolation and colder air aloft is expected over northern areas where the ongoing high-cloud plume will be less dense, and should exit sooner. In southern areas, shorter duration/weaker magnitude of diabatic heating will be offset to some extent by greater ambient moisture/theta-e. Each process will weaken MLCINH enough to support surface-based convection this afternoon into evening. Aside from the dryline and front, foci for development may include outflow/differential-heating boundaries from morning activity, and a persistent low-level convergence zone already apparent near I-20 from the Big Country into north-central TX. While denser convection training along in that convergence zone may disfavor sustained large-hail potential, embedded supercells are possible, and isolated discrete supercells may offer severe to significant hail farther south. Forecast soundings south of the convergence zone reasonably show rich inflow-layer moisture, strong mid/upper winds and deep shear near the subtropical jet (with 60-75 kt effective-shear magnitudes possible), and long, nearly straight, somewhat hook-shaped hodographs. Splitting storms are possible with severe-hail potential from left- or right-moving supercells. Overnight, as large-scale ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching mid/upper trough, multiple rounds of development are possible, especially in either "slight" risk area. A large-hail and sporadic damaging-wind threat will exist with any such convection. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive through the period, as a strong shortwave trough exits the northeastern CONUS, and a series of shortwaves traverse an eastward-shifting mean trough across the West. The most important of those shortwaves is evident in moisture-channel imagery over the lower Colorado River Valley region and nearby parts of southern CA. This feature should move eastward across central/southern AZ and adjoining portions of extreme northwestern MX through the period, reaching southern NM and -- at its easternmost part -- the TX/NM border region of the Llano Estacado by 12Z tomorrow. In the foregoing southwest-flow regime aloft, several weak/subtle vorticity lobes should cross portions of the southern Plains States through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over southeastern CO, with wavy and somewhat diffuse warm front across northern parts of the TX Panhandle and OK, to the western Ozarks. The low is expected to migrate across the OK Panhandle to south-central/central KS through the day, with 00Z trailing cold-frontal position across northwestern OK and the northern/central TX Panhandle. By 12Z, the initial low should reach eastern KS or western MO, with cold front to another low near SPS, then across the South Plains to southeastern NM. A dryline should sharpen through the day with continued moist advection to its east. By 00Z, the dryline should extend from the eastern TX Panhandle southward then south-southwestward to northern Coahuila. The cold front will overtake the dryline from north-south across the eastern Panhandle and northwest TX overnight. ...Southern Plains... Isolated, marginally severe hail may occur from elevated thunderstorms now prevalent over portions of the Arklatex to southern Ozarks, eastern OK, and south-central KS, and a zone of steep lapse rates aloft, low-level warm advection and moisture transport above the surface. However, the main severe threat will be later today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- forming along/ahead of the dryline this afternoon and persisting/expanding into the overnight hours -- will be capable of large hail (some potentially 2+ inches in diameter) and occasional damaging to severe gusts. The tornado risk is more sparse and conditional, given a lack of more-robust moisture. A bimodal overall severe-threat distribution still is apparent, with the greatest cumulative convective concentrations likely centered on western OK to southern KS, and that part of west-central to north-central TX in and south of the ongoing convective band. With some reservations, a relative probabilistic minimum will be maintained over the northwest TX region, but with the understanding that any storm forming/sustaining in the environment just east of the dryline still may become a supercell capable of strong-severe gusts and significant hail. Favorable destabilization will develop over the dryline and nearby moist sector by mid/late afternoon, but in different ways from north-south. More sustained/direct insolation and colder air aloft is expected over northern areas where the ongoing high-cloud plume will be less dense, and should exit sooner. In southern areas, shorter duration/weaker magnitude of diabatic heating will be offset to some extent by greater ambient moisture/theta-e. Each process will weaken MLCINH enough to support surface-based convection this afternoon into evening. Aside from the dryline and front, foci for development may include outflow/differential-heating boundaries from morning activity, and a persistent low-level convergence zone already apparent near I-20 from the Big Country into north-central TX. While denser convection training along in that convergence zone may disfavor sustained large-hail potential, embedded supercells are possible, and isolated discrete supercells may offer severe to significant hail farther south. Forecast soundings south of the convergence zone reasonably show rich inflow-layer moisture, strong mid/upper winds and deep shear near the subtropical jet (with 60-75 kt effective-shear magnitudes possible), and long, nearly straight, somewhat hook-shaped hodographs. Splitting storms are possible with severe-hail potential from left- or right-moving supercells. Overnight, as large-scale ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching mid/upper trough, multiple rounds of development are possible, especially in either "slight" risk area. A large-hail and sporadic damaging-wind threat will exist with any such convection. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain progressive through the period, as a strong shortwave trough exits the northeastern CONUS, and a series of shortwaves traverse an eastward-shifting mean trough across the West. The most important of those shortwaves is evident in moisture-channel imagery over the lower Colorado River Valley region and nearby parts of southern CA. This feature should move eastward across central/southern AZ and adjoining portions of extreme northwestern MX through the period, reaching southern NM and -- at its easternmost part -- the TX/NM border region of the Llano Estacado by 12Z tomorrow. In the foregoing southwest-flow regime aloft, several weak/subtle vorticity lobes should cross portions of the southern Plains States through the period. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over southeastern CO, with wavy and somewhat diffuse warm front across northern parts of the TX Panhandle and OK, to the western Ozarks. The low is expected to migrate across the OK Panhandle to south-central/central KS through the day, with 00Z trailing cold-frontal position across northwestern OK and the northern/central TX Panhandle. By 12Z, the initial low should reach eastern KS or western MO, with cold front to another low near SPS, then across the South Plains to southeastern NM. A dryline should sharpen through the day with continued moist advection to its east. By 00Z, the dryline should extend from the eastern TX Panhandle southward then south-southwestward to northern Coahuila. The cold front will overtake the dryline from north-south across the eastern Panhandle and northwest TX overnight. ...Southern Plains... Isolated, marginally severe hail may occur from elevated thunderstorms now prevalent over portions of the Arklatex to southern Ozarks, eastern OK, and south-central KS, and a zone of steep lapse rates aloft, low-level warm advection and moisture transport above the surface. However, the main severe threat will be later today. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms -- forming along/ahead of the dryline this afternoon and persisting/expanding into the overnight hours -- will be capable of large hail (some potentially 2+ inches in diameter) and occasional damaging to severe gusts. The tornado risk is more sparse and conditional, given a lack of more-robust moisture. A bimodal overall severe-threat distribution still is apparent, with the greatest cumulative convective concentrations likely centered on western OK to southern KS, and that part of west-central to north-central TX in and south of the ongoing convective band. With some reservations, a relative probabilistic minimum will be maintained over the northwest TX region, but with the understanding that any storm forming/sustaining in the environment just east of the dryline still may become a supercell capable of strong-severe gusts and significant hail. Favorable destabilization will develop over the dryline and nearby moist sector by mid/late afternoon, but in different ways from north-south. More sustained/direct insolation and colder air aloft is expected over northern areas where the ongoing high-cloud plume will be less dense, and should exit sooner. In southern areas, shorter duration/weaker magnitude of diabatic heating will be offset to some extent by greater ambient moisture/theta-e. Each process will weaken MLCINH enough to support surface-based convection this afternoon into evening. Aside from the dryline and front, foci for development may include outflow/differential-heating boundaries from morning activity, and a persistent low-level convergence zone already apparent near I-20 from the Big Country into north-central TX. While denser convection training along in that convergence zone may disfavor sustained large-hail potential, embedded supercells are possible, and isolated discrete supercells may offer severe to significant hail farther south. Forecast soundings south of the convergence zone reasonably show rich inflow-layer moisture, strong mid/upper winds and deep shear near the subtropical jet (with 60-75 kt effective-shear magnitudes possible), and long, nearly straight, somewhat hook-shaped hodographs. Splitting storms are possible with severe-hail potential from left- or right-moving supercells. Overnight, as large-scale ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching mid/upper trough, multiple rounds of development are possible, especially in either "slight" risk area. A large-hail and sporadic damaging-wind threat will exist with any such convection. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/07/2024 Read more