Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...AND FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...GA/north FL... Radar/satellite imagery shows a southwest to northeast oriented broken band of thunderstorms from the eastern part of the FL Panhandle into southeast GA. A moist/unstable airmass south of the thunderstorm activity where strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow will continue to aid in storm organization and episodic bows/supercells capable of a locally damaging wind threat and/or brief tornado. As the large-scale upper trough continues to pivot towards the region, the cold front will push southeast through southern GA/northern FL later today and this evening. For short-term convective details, please reference upcoming MCD #211 across southern GA/northern portions of FL. ...Carolinas... The stabilizing influence of the early morning convective band --currently over the shelf waters as of late morning-- will diminish as a mid-level speed max approaches the western Carolinas later today. Surface observations indicate dewpoints in the mid 60s across central SC with increasing low-level moisture advecting into southern NC. Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will favor storm organization. Primary uncertainty is the magnitude of buoyancy that can develop in wake of early morning cloud cover/precip. Forecast soundings show primarily 750-1250 J/kg MLCAPE potentially developing by mid afternoon from central SC into southern NC. The tendency for veering flow in the low levels will occur as a surface low develops/deepens north-northeastward through the evening from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic states. Models continue to vary on the coverage of storm activity this afternoon, but some guidance indicates shallow rotating storms developing during peak heating ahead of a cold front. Due to the possibility for few transient supercells later this afternoon, have maintained a categorical Slight Risk for a portion of this region. This activity will likely diminish by early evening as instability wanes. ..Smith/Leitman.. 03/09/2024 Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PFN TO 20 NE SAV. ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-065-073-077-079-123-129-091640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC003-005-019-025-027-029-039-049-051-065-075-101-127-173-179- 183-185-191-229-275-299-305-091640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COOK ECHOLS GLYNN LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH PIERCE THOMAS WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW PFN TO 25 NNE SAV. ..DEAN..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-065-073-077-079-123-129-091540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-029-039-049-051-065-069-071-075-101- 127-131-173-179-183-185-191-229-267-275-299-305-091540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE COLQUITT COOK ECHOLS GLYNN GRADY LANIER LIBERTY LONG LOWNDES MCINTOSH PIERCE TATTNALL Read more

MD 0210 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 33... FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Areas affected...Florida Panhandle...extreme southeast Alabama...much of southern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33... Valid 091058Z - 091430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33 continues. SUMMARY...The risk of brief tornadoes continues over WW 33, and may spread across the remainder of southern Georgia this morning. Depending on storm trends, a new watch could be needed farther east. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to track along an outflow-reinforced boundary, from the western FL Panhandle across far southeast AL and into southwest GA. Transient/embedded supercells have been noted at times within the SW to NE oriented line, with primarily bowing structures. Cells continue to move quite rapidly eastward at roughly 50 kt. Surface analysis shows increasing dewpoints into southern GA, where pressure falls are focusing. In addition, surface winds are becoming gusty at 15-20 kt, indicating boundary-layer mixing and coupling with the stronger flow just off the surface. Indeed, area VWPs show 500 meter winds of 35-40 kt, which is contributing to 0-1 SRH values over 300 m2/s2 over GA and into northern parts of the FL Panhandle. While MLCAPE is only averaging 500-750 J/kg, the impressive kinematic fields, combined with a focused corridor of storms suggests increasing potential of a tornado or two. Inflections within the line or mesolows will be favored area for brief tornadoes. As such, an additional watch may be needed across much of southern GA, essentially extending WW 33 east/northeast. ..Jewell.. 03/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30348614 30838607 31248541 31558456 31708378 32008311 32238277 32348216 32198155 31618108 31158155 30758283 30528465 30348614 Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W PFN TO 10 SW MAI TO 25 ENE MAI TO 25 SSW ABY TO 20 N MGR TO 40 NE MGR TO 50 WNW AYS TO 45 SW VDI TO 25 SW VDI TO 10 S VDI TO 20 NNE VDI TO 30 SSW AGS. ..JEWELL..03/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 34 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-047-063-065-073-077-079-123-129-091440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC001-003-005-019-025-027-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-069-071- 075-087-101-103-109-127-131-161-165-173-179-183-185-191-205-229- 251-253-267-275-277-279-299-305-091440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sat Mar 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and damaging to severe thunderstorm gusts are possible through early evening across parts of the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... A progressive, fairly well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A positively tilted shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of the Ozarks and AR to southwest TX. The eastern part will split off eastward, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region. The southern perturbation will cross the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions today, reaching the southern Appalachians by 00Z as a more diffuse, elongated trough and vorticity banner within a broader area of cyclonic flow. The northern trough will develop a closed 500-mb low tonight over the Upper Great Lakes and Lower MI, contributing to a large area of cyclonic flow by 12Z over most of the East. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over Lake Huron with occluded front/trough southward to another low over west-central GA. From that low, a cold front extended southwestward across the western FL Panhandle, and a warm front was drawn eastward over extreme southern SD to adjoining Atlantic waters. The southern low should ripple northeastward across central parts of SC/NC by 21Z today, with its definition muddled somewhat by convective processes just to the south and southeast. By 00Z, the low should reach northeastern VA, with cold front across the eastern Carolinas, southern GA, and the FL coastal bend, to the central/southwestern Gulf. ...Southeastern CONUS... Occasional severe thunderstorms -- within a broader area of convection described below -- will offer the greatest severe threat today, in the forms of a few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts. An ongoing convective band was apparent across southern GA and parts of the FL Panhandle,ahead of the cold front and along and south of the warm front. See SPC tornado watch 34 and related mesoscale discussions for near-term coverage of this activity. The associated belt of relatively maximized low-level lift will remain the principal focus for continued development through the day, as it shifts eastward across the outlook area, and also, extends northeastward over parts of the Carolinas. Moisture is increasing in the proximal part of the foregoing boundary layer (inflow region), and surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F will become common south of the activity in the next few hours -- where not already present. That, as well as cloud-muted diurnal heating, will boost preconvective MLCAPE into the 1000-1500 J/kg range, collocated with favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 60-70 kt). Low-level hodographs will remain large, even where surface flow veers somewhat to south-southwest as the low shifts eastward. The main limiting factor for even greater severe potential will be the messy, training nature of convective mode. However, embedded mesocirculations (supercells or small LEWP/bow features) will post the greatest tornado and wind threat locally. Some potential remains for development of strong-severe thunderstorms behind the initial convective band, and in a destabilizing airmass over eastern SC and southeastern NC this afternoon. While more uncertain in terms of coverage and longevity, the buoyancy/shear parameter space still looks favorable for supercell potential with any sustained convection. As such, that part of the "slight" level probabilities will be maintained for now, with yet-to-develop mesoscale trends likely influencing the threat. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/09/2024 Read more

WW 0034 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW LRD TO 10 NW COT TO 20 NE COT TO 50 NW NIR TO 40 S BAZ TO 30 E BAZ TO 15 SE AUS TO 15 NE AUS TO 35 W CLL. WW 13 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 030600Z. ..JEWELL..02/03/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC021-123-177-255-030600- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BASTROP DEWITT GONZALES KARNES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more