Severe Storms

MD 0330 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...southern Indiana into southwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 020037Z - 020200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this evening and overnight with a primary threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage is increasing across central Illinois with these storms eventually moving into Indiana later this evening. Additional development is likely farther east into Indiana and Ohio. Most of these storms will likely remain north of the warm front where storms will predominantly be elevated with a threat for large hail and isolated wind gusts. The 00Z ILN RAOB shows shear which will support supercells and a threat for large hail and potentially some very large hail. Initially the tornado threat should remain limited given the majority of storms should be north of the warm front. However, after midnight, storms are expected to develop/move into areas south of the warm front where the tornado threat will be greater. A severe thunderstorm watch will be issued for the initial threat and trends will be monitored if a tornado watch is needed for the activity later tonight. ..Bentley/Hart.. 04/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... LAT...LON 39918783 40118513 40058376 39528304 38658371 38588474 38438637 38438719 38628782 39918783 Read more

WW 0069 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 69 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0330 ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...IND...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 69 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC005-011-013-021-027-029-031-035-041-045-047-055-057-059-063- 065-071-079-081-083-093-095-097-101-105-107-109-119-121-133-135- 137-139-145-153-161-165-167-177-020240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BOONE BROWN CLAY DAVIESS DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FOUNTAIN FRANKLIN GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY JACKSON JENNINGS JOHNSON KNOX LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARTIN MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN OWEN PARKE PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY SULLIVAN UNION VERMILLION VIGO WAYNE OHC017-037-061-109-113-135-149-165-020240- Read more

WW 0068 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SZL TO 10 E DNV. ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 68 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-013-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-041-045-049-051-061-079- 083-101-117-119-121-133-135-139-159-163-173-189-020240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CALHOUN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE GREENE JASPER JERSEY LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE RICHLAND ST. CLAIR SHELBY WASHINGTON MOC007-019-027-051-055-071-073-099-105-113-125-135-139-151-161- 163-169-183-189-219-221-510-020240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY COLE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN Read more

WW 0067 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CNU TO 35 N COU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332 ..WEINMAN..04/02/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 67 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-020240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD MOC009-011-013-015-029-039-043-053-057-059-077-083-085-089-097- 109-119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-213-217-020240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BATES BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN COOPER DADE DALLAS GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER MORGAN NEWTON PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR STONE TANEY VERNON Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0070 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0070 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0070 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0329 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 68... FOR EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST INDIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Areas affected...eastern Missouri across Illinois and into far southwest Indiana. Concerning...Tornado Watch 68... Valid 012345Z - 020115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 68 continues. SUMMARY...Training supercells will continue along a warm front from eastern Missouri to far western Indiana this evening. DISCUSSION...A mature supercell is moving through the northern St. Louis suburbs with another supercell east of Jefferson City. Thus far, the maximum hail size with these storms has been golf ball sized, but even larger hail is possible, especially as the low-level jet strengthens this evening. A vorticity rich environment along this warm front will support a tornado threat through the evening with the WoFs suggesting a narrow corridor of 2 STP along the front. WoFs 0-2km UH probabilities suggest the lead supercell will continue to support a tornado threat for the next several hours with peak probabilities in south-central Illinois. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38589211 39219064 39688917 39728757 39468704 38678717 38348849 38329008 38259101 38199180 38199212 38289225 38589211 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes (potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the period. Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north TX into the lower OH Valley. ..Darrow.. 04/02/2024 Read more