Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The only change to the ongoing forecast was to expand the isolated dry thunderstorm area into northern California. Here, precipitable water values are running between 0.5"-0.75". Low-to-mid-level flow is sufficiently strong (on the order of 20-25 knots) that, when coupled with the low precipitable water values, any thunderstorm that can develop would pose at least some potential for being on the dry side. ..Marsh.. 09/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will progress across the Northeast while upper ridging persists over the Rockies, and another upper trough impinges on the West Coast today. The West Coast upper trough will provide enough upper support atop a dry boundary layer to encourage locally dry and windy conditions to the lee of the northern Sierra this afternoon. While occasional bouts of 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds may overlap with 15-20 percent RH, the brief and localized nature of these conditions preclude Elevated highlights. Farther to the northeast, upper support from the aforementioned upper trough will encounter greater buoyancy, which will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon into the evening hours. Storms will be most likely over portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. Here, forecast soundings show a dry boundary layer extending to at least 700 mb, suggesting that a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms may occur. Regardless of precipitation production, some of these storms may overspread patches of very dry fuels that may be easily ignited by lightning, warranting the continuance of dry thunderstorm highlights over the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage, isolated hail, and a tornado or two. ...The Mid Atlantic Region into New England... A large upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the effective low-level baroclinic zone extends from MD into eastern PA/NY and New England. To the east of the boundary, at least broken sunshine will help to steepen low-level lapse rates and destabilize the air mass. Thunderstorms have already begun to form along this zone, with intensification to scattered strong/severe storms by mid-afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but southwesterly winds aloft are strong and deep layer shear will support rotating/bowing structures capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. Model guidance is in agreement that the corridor of concern is rather narrow, with the main risk between about 19-23z. Refer to MD #2042 for further details. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage and a tornado or two. ...Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s farther inland. Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates north-northeast across portions of southern New England into southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced 5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA... Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However, sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025 Read more