Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...central and northern IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242019Z - 242215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A risk for localized wind damage via 50-65 mph gusts may develop across north-central and northern IN during the next few hours. The expected severe coverage will likely preclude the need for a small severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a warm and adequately moist boundary layer is located over Indiana featuring lower 80s temperatures and 60-64 deg F dewpoints. This airmass is immediately east of a residual gust front/outflow from an earlier MCS that has progressed eastward and extends from southwestern Lower MI south-southwestward into east-central IL. The WSR-88D VAD data from Syracuse, IN and Indianapolis, IN show relatively weak flow (less than 20 kt) in the lowest 4-5 km. Given the moderate instability but deep-layer shear favoring mainly linear modes/multicells, expecting a continuation of episodic intensification and weakening to the more intense multicells over the next few hours across central and northern IN. Although marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out, it seems the greater hazard will be localized gusts perhaps peaking in the 50-65 mph range. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40188717 41498621 41688587 41668548 41368517 39908582 39718606 39618653 39818695 40188717 Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SZL TO 45 NNW COU TO 35 E IRK TO 40 SW BRL TO 35 NNW BRL. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-049-051-057-061-067-071-083- 095-107-109-115-117-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-149-157-163- 167-169-171-173-187-189-242340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FULTON GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON JERSEY KNOX LOGAN MCDONOUGH MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASON MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY WARREN WASHINGTON IAC057-087-111-242340- IA Read more

WW 0302 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SZL TO 45 NNW COU TO 35 E IRK TO 40 SW BRL TO 35 NNW BRL. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-005-009-013-017-021-025-027-049-051-057-061-067-071-083- 095-107-109-115-117-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-149-157-163- 167-169-171-173-187-189-242340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOND BROWN CALHOUN CASS CHRISTIAN CLAY CLINTON EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FULTON GREENE HANCOCK HENDERSON JERSEY KNOX LOGAN MCDONOUGH MACON MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MASON MENARD MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN MOULTRIE PIKE RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT SHELBY WARREN WASHINGTON IAC057-087-111-242340- IA Read more

WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-061-081-083-087-091-113-127-131-133-143- 242240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MILLER POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-041-061-063-069-077-079-085- 089-091-095-097-099-101-111-115-121-123-127-131-135-145- 242240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL Read more

WW 0303 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 303 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-033-047-061-081-083-087-091-113-127-131-133-143- 242240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD FRANKLIN HOWARD LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON MILLER POLK SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER WASHINGTON OKC001-005-013-019-021-023-029-035-041-061-063-069-077-079-085- 089-091-095-097-099-101-111-115-121-123-127-131-135-145- 242240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ATOKA BRYAN CARTER CHEROKEE CHOCTAW COAL CRAIG DELAWARE HASKELL HUGHES JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MARSHALL Read more

WW 0304 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 304 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 304 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC021-242240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105- 109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215- 217-225-229-242240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES MILLER MORGAN NEWTON OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER Read more

WW 0304 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 304 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 304 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC021-242240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-065-067-077-085-091-097-105- 109-119-125-131-141-145-149-153-161-167-169-185-203-209-213-215- 217-225-229-242240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS GREENE HICKORY HOWELL JASPER LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MARIES MILLER MORGAN NEWTON OREGON OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR SHANNON STONE TANEY TEXAS VERNON WEBSTER Read more

MD 0934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into far western Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242011Z - 242145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of landspout tornadoes may occur with the stronger, longer lasting cells. The severe threat should be brief and isolated, and a WW issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A surface low, located along the ND/MN border, continues to track northeast, immediately preceded by a band of convection, where at least one tornado has already been reported. These storms are forming within a confluence zone characterized by locally high amounts of low-level vertical oriented vorticity and over 200 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE. This setup may promote stretching of vorticity by any relatively discrete, sustained updraft within the convective band that can form, supporting continued landspout tornado potential. However, the severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF... LAT...LON 46219631 46759700 47249758 47669743 47729668 47319626 46849609 46389604 46219631 Read more

MD 0932 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL IL...WEST-CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...south-central and east-central IL...west-central IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241839Z - 242045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Episodic strong to occasionally severe multicells will potentially be capable of localized wind damage (50-65 mph) and large hail (1.0 to 1.5 inches in diameter). DISCUSSION...A seasonably moist/moderate to strongly unstable airmass (1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) has developed across south-central IL extending eastward into west-central IN early this afternoon. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerlies (30-40 kt at 500 mb) is located across the mid MS Valley into the Wabash Valley. Weaker flow is noted in the upper levels (20-30 kt) in the 300-200mb layer. Precipitation seeding and additional outflow/merger processes will promote further storm/cold pool aggregation and likely a waning risk for severe where convective overturning has occurred. In areas void of storms currently, some risk for strong/localized severe may move into those areas over the next few hours. Large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter) and strong to locally severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be possible with the stronger cores and outflow surges. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38638992 39029031 39509050 39789011 39858946 39868856 40208807 40708772 40908739 41098698 41058665 40888646 40418645 39528709 38958787 38628911 38638992 Read more