Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain generally low in the extended, with large-scale ridging expected over the western US. This will limit concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest. Occasional periods of localized Elevated and spotty Critical fire weather concerns will be possible in lee of the higher terrain across central and southern New Mexico, where downslope breezes will overlap single digit relative humidity and very warm temperatures, mainly on D3/Tue and D4/Wed. Overall, this threat looks to remain isolated and short in duration. Late in the period on D6/Friday, a trough across the Intermountain West will track into the Central Plains, with surface troughing strengthening again across the High Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather may return across New Mexico into western Texas. Differences in long range model solutions leads to low confidence in the overall pattern and including areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0316 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CRW TO 25 SSW PKB TO 15 SSE ZZV TO 15 NNW ZZV TO 20 S MFD TO 30 W MFD TO 10 WNW FDY TO 20 SW TOL TO 10 W TOL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...RLX...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 316 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC033-063-077-139-147-173-175-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD HANCOCK HURON RICHLAND SENECA WOOD WYANDOT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 316 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH WV 261700Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Northeast Kentucky Western and Central Ohio Western West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving rapidly northeast posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles north of Dayton OH to 30 miles south southeast of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Bunting Read more

WW 316 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH WV 261700Z - 270000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 316 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana Northeast Kentucky Western and Central Ohio Western West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving rapidly northeast posing a risk for damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 70 miles north of Dayton OH to 30 miles south southeast of Huntington WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TYS TO 45 WNW TRI TO 40 W BLF TO 20 SW BKW TO 25 N BKW TO 20 SSE PKB TO 30 ESE ZZV. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC051-131-262340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LESLIE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-075-087-097-099-111-113- 115-121-157-159-169-171-173-189-193-197-199-262340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE GRAHAM HAYWOOD IREDELL JACKSON MCDOWELL MACON MADISON MITCHELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

WW 0317 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W TYS TO 45 WNW TRI TO 40 W BLF TO 20 SW BKW TO 25 N BKW TO 20 SSE PKB TO 30 ESE ZZV. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JKL...GSP...RNK...RLX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 317 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC051-131-262340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY LESLIE NCC003-005-009-011-021-023-027-035-059-075-087-097-099-111-113- 115-121-157-159-169-171-173-189-193-197-199-262340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA DAVIE GRAHAM HAYWOOD IREDELL JACKSON MCDOWELL MACON MADISON MITCHELL ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY SWAIN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY Read more

WW 317 SEVERE TSTM KY NC OH TN VA WV 261745Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 317 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kentucky Western North Carolina Southeast Ohio Eastern Tennessee Southwest Virginia Central and Southern West Virginia * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing complex of severe thunderstorms will continue moving east through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening. Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a tornado or two will be the primary severe weather hazards, however isolated large hail will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Bristol TN to 20 miles northeast of Dublin VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 315...WW 316... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0318 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PKB TO 25 NE ZZV TO 35 N ZZV TO 15 SE MFD TO 15 WNW MFD. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 318 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-007-013-019-029-035-055-059-067-075-081-085-093-099-103- 111-133-151-153-155-157-169-262340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND ASHTABULA BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA CUYAHOGA GEAUGA GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON LAKE LORAIN MAHONING MEDINA MONROE PORTAGE STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC003-005-007-019-031-039-049-051-053-059-063-065-073-085-121- 125-129-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER BUTLER CLARION CRAWFORD ERIE FAYETTE FOREST Read more

WW 0319 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW JLN TO 40 NNE JLN TO 20 ESE SZL. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 319 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC021-262340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-067-077-085-097-105-109-119- 141-145-153-167-185-209-213-225-229-262340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-031-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-111-121-135- 262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH SHARP ILC003-027-055-065-077-081-087-119-121-127-133-145-151-153-157- 163-165-181-189-199-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 320 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 320 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-021-031-049-055-063-065-067-075-089-093-111-121-135- 262340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CLAY CRAIGHEAD FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE MARION MISSISSIPPI POINSETT RANDOLPH SHARP ILC003-027-055-065-077-081-087-119-121-127-133-145-151-153-157- 163-165-181-189-199-262340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER CLINTON FRANKLIN HAMILTON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON MADISON MARION MASSAC MONROE PERRY POPE PULASKI RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SALINE UNION WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON Read more

WW 320 TORNADO AR IL KY MO TN 262100Z - 270400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 320 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky East-Central and Southeast Missouri Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 75 mph likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop across the watch area through this evening. Several tornadoes are likely, some of which are expected to be intense. Very large hail is also likely, along with the risk for potentially significant damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of West Plains MO to 20 miles southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...WW 319... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 28035. ...Bunting Read more

MD 0983 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0983 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of far southeast Wisconsin into Northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262026Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A conditional severe threat exists, including the potential for a tornado or a couple bouts of strong wind gusts/hail. Given the isolated and brief nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring within the warm sector ahead of the surface low along the WI/IL border, with diurnal heating supporting temperatures approaching the 70 F mark amid mid 60s F dewpoints. Ahead of a surface trough, where SBCAPE is exceeding 1000 J/kg, surface wind remain backed, with substantial veering and strengthening of the low-level wind field contributing to elongated and curved hodographs. 20Z mesoanalysis show over 200 m2/s2 effective SRH in place. As such, any storm that can develop ahead of the surface trough axis before surface winds veer may pose a brief tornado threat, along with strong wind gusts and some hail. Confidence in this conditional scenario is not overly high, precluding a WW issuance at this time. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... LAT...LON 41588919 42598920 43068869 43098821 42718780 42228768 41768790 41488857 41588919 Read more

MD 0984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of Middle into eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 262042Z - 262145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of middle into eastern Tennessee. Large hail is becoming the main concern as storms become more supercellular through the afternoon. A couple of tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Either a new WW issuance or local expansions of existing watches are needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has gradually transitioned to a more supercellular mode over the past couple of hours, with a dominant supercell recently producing severe hail. Other supercells are beginning to form in the warm sector as well, including in spots where the airmass remains pristine. Given ample buoyancy/shear and the more cellular mode, severe hail will become the main threat over Middle into eastern TN over the next few hours, though a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts are still possible. As such, either a new WW issuance or expansion of existing watches is needed to address the present severe weather scenario. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX... LAT...LON 35998683 36378522 36308381 35938345 35408371 35158422 35118481 35388573 35588637 35998683 Read more

WW 0320 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0320 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0979 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...317... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...EXTREME EASTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN VIRGINIA...EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0979 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of western and central Ohio...extreme eastern Kentucky...western West Virginia...extreme western Virginia...extreme western North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316...317... Valid 261925Z - 262100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 316, 317 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging gusts (some severe) should remain possible across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 316 and 317 over the next few hours as a QLCS moves across the region. An additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch may also be needed downstream, near the OH/PA border area. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS, with an extensive history of strong and damaging wind gusts, continues to track across eastern portions of the OH into central Appalachians. Low to mid 80s F surface temperatures precede the QLCS, with the boundary layer mixed enough to support a continued threat of damaging gusts for at least a few more hours. This favorable airmass extends to the OH/PA border area, downstream of both the severe thunderstorm watches, so an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed in the next hour or so. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...IWX... LAT...LON 36208109 36448206 36938246 38038252 38908258 39328282 39568326 39998399 40518458 41218467 41518435 41528426 41348199 40588088 39388041 37788053 36438065 36138080 36208109 Read more

MD 0977 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0977 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...far southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261836Z - 262100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storm producing very large hail and a few tornadoes may develop in the next 2 hours into southwest Missouri and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low close to the KS/OK/MO tri-state area, where cumulus fields continue to deepen. This region is just ahead of a developing cold front with a deep layer of moisture convergence, and just north of a steep low-level lapse rate plume over eastern OK. Given the steep lapse rates aloft and continued heating near the surface low and front, storms may form within 1-2 hours here. Both instability and wind profiles favor supercells producing very large hail, and, a tornado risk will likely increase as storms proceed east into a more favorable low-level shear environment. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36569329 36489445 36659525 36939540 37299531 37609514 37859493 38159446 38409307 38249250 37889215 37489210 36969241 36799274 36569329 Read more

MD 0981 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks...mid Mississippi River Valley and western Tennessee Valley Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 261946Z - 262045Z SUMMARY...Confidence has increased that severe storms capable of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and intense damaging winds are likely this afternoon and continuing into the evening. An upgrade to a Tornado/Wind driven Moderate Risk is forthcoming at 20z. DISCUSSION...Rapid air mass recovery is ongoing along a remnant outflow boundary over portions of central and eastern MO, northeast AR, southern IL/IN and western KY/TN. Confidence has increased in a significant severe risk such that an upgrade to a categorical Moderate Risk (15% Sig Tornado and 45% Sig Wind) will be forthcoming at 20z. Please see MCD #980 for the relevant environmental information and the upcoming 20z Convective Outlook for more information. ..Lyons/Bentley.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36109166 36349206 36789231 37279241 37559240 37989235 38219226 38359195 38359171 38409044 38288937 38018791 37878736 37588662 37218636 36688627 36248653 35968685 35758733 35708859 35708956 35759055 35989134 36109166 Read more

MD 0978 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 315... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO NORTHERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Kentucky into northern and Middle Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 315... Valid 261857Z - 262030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 315 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 315. Damaging gusts will be the main threat, and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is most likely wherever thunderstorms can ingest the warmer airmass. Local spatial and temporal extensions of Tornado Watch 315 may be necessary. DISCUSSION...While the earlier QLCS recently progressed out of Tornado Watch 315 (into eastern KY), a second line of thunderstorms continues to move east-southeast over southern KY into northern and middle TN. This line of storms is trailing the previous QLCS, atop a cooler and stable airmass. Much of this line may remain on the cool side of the baroclinic zone, with limited severe potential. However, the southern flank of the line may interact with the baroclinic boundary and potentially ingest surface-based air parcels. Should this occur, damaging gusts will be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out. Tornado Watch 315 expires at 2000Z, so a temporal extension of the watch may be needed. A spatial extension of the watch may also be needed if the line of storms can build farther south. ..Squitieri.. 05/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... LAT...LON 36028742 36518642 36918556 36858471 36458395 35848382 35568403 35508500 35598590 35678679 36028742 Read more