Severe Storms

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW RAP TO 60 ESE 4BQ TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220340- SD Read more

WW 535 SEVERE TSTM MT ND SD WY 212135Z - 220500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Montana Southwest North Dakota Northwest South Dakota Northeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify across parts of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana through the late afternoon. These storms will track northeastward across the watch area, posing a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles northwest of Billings MT to 25 miles east northeast of Buffalo SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W RAP TO 60 SW 2WX TO 35 SSW 4BQ TO 65 WSW MLS TO 60 NE BIL TO 40 SSE 3HT. ..WENDT..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 535 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-021-025-033-037-055-065-069-075-079-087-107-109- 220240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD WHEATLAND WIBAUX NDC007-011-033-087-220240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS BOWMAN GOLDEN VALLEY SLOPE SDC019-063-093-220240- SD Read more

MD 1748 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535... FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1748 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Montana...far northeast Wyoming...southwest North Dakota...northwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535... Valid 212356Z - 220200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535 continues. SUMMARY...A greater threat for severe wind gusts may develop along and north of the South Dakota/North Dakota border this evening. DISCUSSION...Initial supercells have already grown upscale into a small linear segment in southeast Montana. Strong buoyancy exists just southeast of this activity, south of a modified outflow boundary from morning convection. Given the expected strengthening of the low-level jet in the Dakotas this evening, this boundary and greater moisture/buoyancy will likely shift northward over time. The favorable wind shear within the region should allow this activity to propagate along the theta-e gradient so long as the linear segment does not move too far north too quickly (outrunning the increasing buoyancy). It is not exactly certain how far north the greater buoyancy will move this evening, but areas near and north of the South Dakota/North Dakota border will be monitored for an increasing threat of severe wind gusts into the evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47390179 47010113 46220145 45720291 45540365 45160512 45130610 45230643 45610663 46260685 46790571 47110445 47390179 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of south-central Kansas. ...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN... Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the short-term threat in this area. With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN. ...Central/southern Plains... A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information. Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized strong to severe gusts. ..Dean.. 07/22/2025 Read more

WW 0535 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0535 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1748 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 535... FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA...FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING...SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1748 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Montana...far northeast Wyoming...southwest North Dakota...northwest South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535... Valid 212356Z - 220200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 535 continues. SUMMARY...A greater threat for severe wind gusts may develop along and north of the South Dakota/North Dakota border this evening. DISCUSSION...Initial supercells have already grown upscale into a small linear segment in southeast Montana. Strong buoyancy exists just southeast of this activity, south of a modified outflow boundary from morning convection. Given the expected strengthening of the low-level jet in the Dakotas this evening, this boundary and greater moisture/buoyancy will likely shift northward over time. The favorable wind shear within the region should allow this activity to propagate along the theta-e gradient so long as the linear segment does not move too far north too quickly (outrunning the increasing buoyancy). It is not exactly certain how far north the greater buoyancy will move this evening, but areas near and north of the South Dakota/North Dakota border will be monitored for an increasing threat of severe wind gusts into the evening. ..Wendt.. 07/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 47390179 47010113 46220145 45720291 45540365 45160512 45130610 45230643 45610663 46260685 46790571 47110445 47390179 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1747 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1747 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 212155Z - 220000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging gusts are possible this afternoon and evening across north-central/northeast Kansas. Limited severe coverage should preclude the need for a watch. DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms have developed over north-central KS amid a localized area of strong buoyancy and low-level convergence. Deep-layer vertical shear is weak and overall storm motion has been very slow. Deepening cumulus is also apparent along the outflow southwestward of this storm. Ample buoyancy exists across the region, suggesting additional storm development is possible. However, given the limited shear and anticipated lack of storm organization, the overall longevity of any particular updraft should be limited. Even so, isolated hail is possible with the initial updrafts. Strong downbursts are possible as storms collapse. Farther east, outflow from earlier storms continues to push southwestward across northeast KS, with temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s behind it. This should limit the intensity of storms across northeast KS. However, the cluster across Washington and Marshall has shown some trend towards forward propagation recently, suggesting some damaging gust are possible even as it moves into the stabilizing airmass downstream. ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39929975 39989583 39029525 38389636 38730027 39929975 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more