Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm potential persists across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and over the central High Plains and northern Plains tonight. Severe/damaging winds and large hail are possible. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is shifting east across the northern Rockies early this evening. Leading edge of large-scale support should spread across the northern High Plains later this evening, and a corridor up upscale growth in convection is expected over the Dakotas. Farther south along the dryline, surface temperatures remain in the 90s to near 100F across eastern CO into western KS/southwest NE. Convection has struggled to develop along this wind shift, partly due to weaker low-level convergence and less support aloft. Some inhibition remains across western NE as evident by LBF 00z sounding. Despite a 91F surface temperature, capping is present at 3km AGL. LLJ will increase after sunset and convection is expected to evolve within the warm-advection corridor, in response to the approaching trough. As the northern Rockies trough approaches the Dakotas, strengthening LLJ into the upper Red River Valley will tend to focus stronger forcing into this region. Ongoing convection, that currently extends from southeast MN into the eastern U.P. of MI, will gradually lift north-northeast overnight; however, storms may struggle a bit, especially after midnight when the northern Plains will become more active. ..Darrow.. 06/18/2024 Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE ALO TO 30 NNE ALO TO 25 SE MCW TO 40 S MSP. ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-043-065-067-089-131-147-191-180140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW CLAYTON FAYETTE FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL PALO ALTO WINNESHIEK MNC039-045-055-099-109-157-169-180140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED WABASHA WINONA WIC011-023-043-053-063-081-103-121-123-180140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CPR TO 55 SW GCC TO 35 E SHR TO 35 NE SHR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 ..DEAN..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-180140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER WYC005-009-011-027-045-180140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK NIOBRARA WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172242Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging wind likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline. Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and near terrain features. With downstream inhibition, storm coverage is likely to remain fairly isolated. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393 31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256 30910261 30460277 29860322 Read more

MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172350Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for strong to severe wind will persist across central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed along a remnant outflow boundary across central PA. Ahead of this line of storms, temperatures are in the mid 80s to 90s with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. The downstream air mass is further characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates. Weaker mid-level lapse rates are noted along with generally weak flow aloft. Nonetheless, this environment will support instances of strong to severe wind over the next couple of hours, should this line maintain intensity and progress eastward. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP... LAT...LON 40317865 41137820 41337785 41417750 41197696 40897668 40717665 40377671 40147684 39947701 39877719 39927757 40057828 40317865 Read more

MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172350Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with the potential for strong to severe wind will persist across central Pennsylvania. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed along a remnant outflow boundary across central PA. Ahead of this line of storms, temperatures are in the mid 80s to 90s with mid to upper 60s dewpoints. The downstream air mass is further characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and steep low-level lapse rates. Weaker mid-level lapse rates are noted along with generally weak flow aloft. Nonetheless, this environment will support instances of strong to severe wind over the next couple of hours, should this line maintain intensity and progress eastward. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP... LAT...LON 40317865 41137820 41337785 41417750 41197696 40897668 40717665 40377671 40147684 39947701 39877719 39927757 40057828 40317865 Read more

MD 1309 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the OK/TX Panhandles into the Permian Basin vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172323Z - 180130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this evening, with a threat of hail and localized severe gusts. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has resulted in moderate destabilization along/east of a diffuse dryline from the OK/TX Panhandles southward into parts of the Permian Basin and southeast NM. A weak midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern NM may aid in development of isolated thunderstorms this evening. Midlevel flow is rather modest, but sufficient veering with height is supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt across the region, and a couple organized cells/clusters could evolve with time. Rather deep, well-mixed boundary layers and moderate low-level flow will support isolated severe gusts with the stronger storms, with sufficient buoyancy for some hail potential as well. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, with coverage of the severe threat expected to remain rather isolated. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33060355 35870272 36750226 36770197 36610149 35290142 33020182 32040201 32070363 32690366 33060355 Read more

MD 1308 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0542 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172242Z - 180045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of instances of large hail and damaging wind likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated near the surface dryline across far western Texas, near Fort Stockton, TX. Ahead of the dryline, temperatures exceed 100 F with dew point in the mid 40s to upper 50s. A gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg is observed in surface objective analysis, along with deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, with strong mid-level capping to the east of the dryline. Given strong deep-layer shear and sufficient MLCAPE, steep lapse rates, and large dewpoint depressions, high-based supercell thunderstorms capable of instances of large hail and damaging winds will be possible. Forcing is largely focused along the dryline and near terrain features. With downstream inhibition, storm coverage is likely to remain fairly isolated. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 29860322 29450381 29560424 29790438 30280428 30880393 31530385 31770374 31850317 31830294 31780276 31530256 30910261 30460277 29860322 Read more

MD 1307 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NE...EXTREME SOUTHERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1307 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0535 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Areas affected...Western into central NE...extreme southern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172235Z - 180000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development is possible by early evening. Should development occur, a few tornadoes, very large hail, and isolated severe gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...A warm front is draped from west-central into northeast NE late this afternoon. Near and south of the warm front, rich low-level moisture beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on the 21Z LBF sounding) has resulted in strong destabilization, with MLCAPE increasing above 3000 J/kg. Meanwhile, favorably veering wind profiles with height (also noted on the 21Z LBF sounding) are supporting effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for supercells. Low-level shear/SRH is already rather strong near and just north of the warm front, and will continue to increase with time as a southerly low-level jet intensifies into the evening. Uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of surface-based storm development into the early evening, given the rather strong capping related to the very well-defined EML. However, the increasing low-level jet may aid in development of one or two supercells near the warm front by early evening, with some development also possible farther south into the warmer and more well-mixed environment. Any sustained supercells near the warm-frontal zone would pose a tornado threat, in addition to potential for very large hail and isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance will become increasingly probable for parts of the area if supercell development appears imminent. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 40649991 40600163 40880195 41190218 41390248 41910291 42130293 42450288 42730250 42990175 43060111 43100028 43089916 42079817 41239828 40709913 40609938 40649991 Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/17/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-075-180040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON POWDER RIVER WYC005-009-011-019-027-045-180040- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CONVERSE CROOK JOHNSON NIOBRARA WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 430 SEVERE TSTM MT WY 172230Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Montana East-central and northeastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop on the east side of higher terrain around the Bighorns and northern Laramie Range, and move northward to northeastward. Activity should cross a narrow corridor of favorable instability and shear for large hail and severe gusts to result, before weakening closer to the Dakotas border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles south of Gillette WY to 30 miles west northwest of Baker MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 429... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21030. ...Edwards Read more