Severe Storms

MD 1322 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 433... FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...central to northeast MN Concerning...Tornado Watch 433... Valid 182018Z - 182145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues. SUMMARY...Primary tornado threat within WW 433 into early evening appears to exist across central to northeast Minnesota with semi-discrete supercells near the surface warm front. DISCUSSION...More prominent, deeper convection within WW 433 has been centered across west-central to northeast MN. Multiple, low-level supercells have been noted along the surface warm front thus far from central MN northeastward. Additional supercells may develop farther south-southwest with modified 18Z MPX sounding indicative of MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg and 0-1 km SRH around 200 m2/s2. With weak effective shear above the LCL, tornado and damaging wind should remain the primary threats as hail magnitudes remain marginal. These threats will likely focus through early evening from the Brainerd Lakes to the Iron Range and Arrowhead regions. ..Grams.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47239393 47779219 48069146 48179108 48089063 47979043 47669095 47179179 46869228 46289254 45979311 45729482 45799522 46189542 46669459 47239393 Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BKX TO 25 NE AXN TO 45 NNE ELO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 ..THORNTON..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-003-009-013-015-017-019-023-025-031-033-035-037-043-047- 053-059-063-065-067-075-079-081-083-085-091-093-095-097-101-103- 105-111-115-117-121-123-127-129-131-133-137-139-141-143-145-147- 151-153-161-163-165-171-173-182240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN ANOKA BENTON BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHIPPEWA CHISAGO COOK COTTONWOOD CROW WING DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC KANDIYOHI LAKE LE SUEUR LINCOLN LYON MCLEOD MARTIN MEEKER MILLE LACS MORRISON MURRAY NICOLLET NOBLES OTTER TAIL PINE PIPESTONE POPE RAMSEY REDWOOD RENVILLE RICE ROCK ST. LOUIS SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Late this week, a mid to upper-level ridge will encompass most of the eastern CONUS, while an elongated, filling trough resides over the Pacific states and Great Basin. For D3/Thursday, increasing mid-level moisture preceding a tropical system is expected to spread even further west/northwest into the Southwest. A few isolated dry lightning strikes still appear possible on the western extent of this deeper moisture, mainly in and around the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau near the AZ/NM border. This is also where wind speeds and RH may briefly reach critical thresholds, although confidence is too low to include low critical probabilities at this time. For D4/Friday-D5/Saturday, mid to upper-level ridging will start to impede upon the Southwest and Great Basin. Although warm and dry conditions will return, weaker flow aloft and fairly insignificant pressure gradients across receptive fuels will limit overall critical probabilities during this time. Through late this weekend, a mid to upper jet in the base of a shortwave trough is expected to traverse WA, OR, ID, and MT by D6/Sunday, with an associated Pacific cold front moving onshore. Increasing westerly, downslope flow across the Cascades of WA will accompany these features. Recent fire activity, and anticipated decreasing fuel moisture across this region given a lack of appreciable rainfall, suggest receptive fuels are becoming more common there. In addition, further south into southeast ID, a prefrontal, deeply mixed air mass will likely aid in momentum transfer of west/southwest flow across the Upper Snake River Plain. Fuels may be slightly less receptive here, but low critical probabilities seem appropriate considering upcoming rapid warming trends preceding this weekend. ..Barnes.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1321 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1321 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...West Central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181912Z - 182045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Weather watch issuance is expected by 20Z-21Z, primarily for a damaging wind and hail threat as storms develop along a cold front in west-central Kansas. DISCUSSION...A cold front progressing slowly southeastward through west-central Kansas is expected to be the focus of severe thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. The warm sector ahead of the cold front is characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s F, and temperatures already warming into the mid to upper 90s F, resulting in 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE that supports deep convection. The more substantial deep layer shear (45-55 kts) is confined to the cool side of the boundary, with the warm sector sector shear being more meager (25-30 kts). As the cold front continues to progress slowly southeast and the boundary layer ahead of it continues to warm, thunderstorm development is expected by 20Z. Given the lack of deep layer shear ahead of the cold front, and boundary parallel shear vectors, storm mode is expected to be predominantly linear, though storms may exhibit transient supercell characteristics before growing upscale. Given the large T/Td spreads in the boundary layer, and high mixed-layer LCL heights evident in the SPC mesoanalysis and RAP forecast profiles, damaging wind gusts are expected - a few of which may be > 65 kts. Given the potential for initial supercell storm mode and strong buoyancy, a threat for significant hail may develop with any cells that remain discrete. A tornado threat cannot be ruled out with any discrete convection in southwest Kansas as low-level shear will improve as the nocturnal low-level jet develops. With increasing severe risk this afternoon likely, a weather watch is expected. ..Halbert/Lyons/Gleason.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37930101 38330063 38630014 39019966 39069918 39089851 39079824 38989803 38749784 38649769 38309762 37899827 37349939 37090019 37080094 37540103 37930101 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-055-057-067-069-081-083-097-101- 105-113-119-129-135-145-151-155-159-165-167-169-175-185-189-195- 182140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HASKELL HODGEMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MEADE MORTON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD STEVENS TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW OLU TO 20 SE OFK TO 25 SW SUX TO 15 N SUX TO 45 SW OTG TO 20 SW OTG TO 15 SW OTG. ..LYONS..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-021-025-027-029-033-035-041-047-059-063-071-081-085-091- 093-109-129-133-137-141-143-147-149-151-155-161-165-167-187-189- 193-195-197-182140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY SIOUX WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT KSC027-029-089-117-123-141-143-147-157-163-183-201-182140- KS Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW OLU TO 20 SE OFK TO 25 SW SUX TO 15 N SUX TO 45 SW OTG TO 20 SW OTG TO 15 SW OTG. ..LYONS..06/18/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-021-025-027-029-033-035-041-047-059-063-071-081-085-091- 093-109-129-133-137-141-143-147-149-151-155-161-165-167-187-189- 193-195-197-182140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CHEROKEE CLAY CRAWFORD DICKINSON EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MILLS MONONA MONTGOMERY O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY SIOUX WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH WRIGHT KSC027-029-089-117-123-141-143-147-157-163-183-201-182140- KS Read more