Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds. ...Midwest into Lower MI... A moderately strong mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Dakotas will track into the upper MS valley this afternoon. The main synoptic surface boundary extends from northern IA into southern WI, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture present to the south. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon and sag southward across eastern IA and northern MO/IL through the evening. Forecast soundings show moderate CAPE values and favorable deep-layer shear for convective organization and a few supercells, capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. The main limiting factors for a more significant severe weather event appear to be the warm temperatures aloft and resulting weak lapse rates, and CAM solutions indicating a rather quick evolution into more linear storm-modes. ...Southern New England... A cluster of thunderstorms currently over eastern NY is expected to intensify and track southeastward along a surface boundary into southern New England this afternoon. This may result in a corridor of locally damaging wind gusts. Have therefore added a small SLGT risk area. Please refer to MCD #1371 for further details. ...Western FL Peninsula... Strong heating is resulting in a hot/humid airmass over the western FL peninsula today, with temperatures in the mid 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PWAT values, the environment appears favorable for a few wet microbursts later today. Several morning CAM solutions suggest organized outflow from early storms over eastern FL may further increase the risk of strong wind gusts. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Fire weather potential remains low for today across the CONUS. Localized elevated fire weather conditions are probable in the lee of the northern Sierra Nevada into northwest NV this afternoon, as well as across south-central NV. However, these conditions are expected to remain sufficiently localized and transient to preclude highlights. Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible across central UT, but fuels across this region are sufficiently moist to limit dry-lightning concerns. ..Moore.. 06/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... A flattened upper-level ridge will be situated across much of the southern CONUS today. With time, shortwave ridging will build over parts of the Great Basin into the Rockies. Stronger, zonal mid-level winds will exist within the northern portions of the CONUS. Late in the period, an upper-level trough will approach the Northwest. Dry and modestly breezy conditions are possible within parts of the Great Basin into a few areas east of the Cascades in the Northwest. Given weak large-scale features, winds will generally remain too light for more than locally elevated concerns. Cloud cover in the Northwest will also keep RH values somewhat marginal and any increase in winds will tend to be after peak heating. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 22 15:22:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including potential for damaging winds as well as a risk for tornadoes. ...Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Ongoing scattered showers/thunderstorms near/south of the synoptic front complicates the later-day scenario to a degree, but outflow/air mass modification is expected into the afternoon with moderate to locally strong destabilization. This will be also coincident with a modestly amplifying shortwave trough/speed max over the Upper Mississippi Valley toward the Lake Michigan vicinity. This belt of 30-50 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer is expected to overspread a destabilizing environment, with stronger insolation/destabilization most probable across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois by mid/late afternoon. Surface-based severe storm development including supercells will become probable by mid/late afternoon in vicinity of the modestly deepening surface low and triple point, including parts of northeast/east-central Iowa into far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. These storms will pose a tornado risk aside from more probable wind damage, which will increase as storms progress southeastward and also potentially expand southwestward somewhat along the southeastward-moving cold front this evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic States/Northeast... Deep-layer wind fields and shear are likely to remain weak, but moderately large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) may once again develop within weak surface troughing, along and southwest of the remnant surface frontal zone. It appears that this will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and possibly a few instances of hail. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling are likely to remain north of the international border through and beyond peak daytime heating, but isolated severe storms could develop mainly across North Dakota by this evening, accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and/or wind. ...Southern Arizona... A few pulse-type strong/locally severe storms may occur this afternoon through early evening within a relatively moist and moderately environment across parts of south-central/southeast Arizona, with downbursts/strong wind gusts as the primary risk. ...Eastern Utah/western Colorado... While not expected to be nearly as active as Friday, a few strong storms could occur regionally, with strong wind gusts/some hail possible on a very isolated basis. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including potential for damaging winds as well as a risk for tornadoes. ...Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Ongoing scattered showers/thunderstorms near/south of the synoptic front complicates the later-day scenario to a degree, but outflow/air mass modification is expected into the afternoon with moderate to locally strong destabilization. This will be also coincident with a modestly amplifying shortwave trough/speed max over the Upper Mississippi Valley toward the Lake Michigan vicinity. This belt of 30-50 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer is expected to overspread a destabilizing environment, with stronger insolation/destabilization most probable across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois by mid/late afternoon. Surface-based severe storm development including supercells will become probable by mid/late afternoon in vicinity of the modestly deepening surface low and triple point, including parts of northeast/east-central Iowa into far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. These storms will pose a tornado risk aside from more probable wind damage, which will increase as storms progress southeastward and also potentially expand southwestward somewhat along the southeastward-moving cold front this evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic States/Northeast... Deep-layer wind fields and shear are likely to remain weak, but moderately large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) may once again develop within weak surface troughing, along and southwest of the remnant surface frontal zone. It appears that this will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and possibly a few instances of hail. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling are likely to remain north of the international border through and beyond peak daytime heating, but isolated severe storms could develop mainly across North Dakota by this evening, accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and/or wind. ...Southern Arizona... A few pulse-type strong/locally severe storms may occur this afternoon through early evening within a relatively moist and moderately environment across parts of south-central/southeast Arizona, with downbursts/strong wind gusts as the primary risk. ...Eastern Utah/western Colorado... While not expected to be nearly as active as Friday, a few strong storms could occur regionally, with strong wind gusts/some hail possible on a very isolated basis. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including potential for damaging winds as well as a risk for tornadoes. ...Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Ongoing scattered showers/thunderstorms near/south of the synoptic front complicates the later-day scenario to a degree, but outflow/air mass modification is expected into the afternoon with moderate to locally strong destabilization. This will be also coincident with a modestly amplifying shortwave trough/speed max over the Upper Mississippi Valley toward the Lake Michigan vicinity. This belt of 30-50 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer is expected to overspread a destabilizing environment, with stronger insolation/destabilization most probable across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois by mid/late afternoon. Surface-based severe storm development including supercells will become probable by mid/late afternoon in vicinity of the modestly deepening surface low and triple point, including parts of northeast/east-central Iowa into far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. These storms will pose a tornado risk aside from more probable wind damage, which will increase as storms progress southeastward and also potentially expand southwestward somewhat along the southeastward-moving cold front this evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic States/Northeast... Deep-layer wind fields and shear are likely to remain weak, but moderately large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) may once again develop within weak surface troughing, along and southwest of the remnant surface frontal zone. It appears that this will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and possibly a few instances of hail. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling are likely to remain north of the international border through and beyond peak daytime heating, but isolated severe storms could develop mainly across North Dakota by this evening, accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and/or wind. ...Southern Arizona... A few pulse-type strong/locally severe storms may occur this afternoon through early evening within a relatively moist and moderately environment across parts of south-central/southeast Arizona, with downbursts/strong wind gusts as the primary risk. ...Eastern Utah/western Colorado... While not expected to be nearly as active as Friday, a few strong storms could occur regionally, with strong wind gusts/some hail possible on a very isolated basis. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including potential for damaging winds as well as a risk for tornadoes. ...Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes... Ongoing scattered showers/thunderstorms near/south of the synoptic front complicates the later-day scenario to a degree, but outflow/air mass modification is expected into the afternoon with moderate to locally strong destabilization. This will be also coincident with a modestly amplifying shortwave trough/speed max over the Upper Mississippi Valley toward the Lake Michigan vicinity. This belt of 30-50 kt of west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer is expected to overspread a destabilizing environment, with stronger insolation/destabilization most probable across eastern Iowa into northern Illinois by mid/late afternoon. Surface-based severe storm development including supercells will become probable by mid/late afternoon in vicinity of the modestly deepening surface low and triple point, including parts of northeast/east-central Iowa into far southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. These storms will pose a tornado risk aside from more probable wind damage, which will increase as storms progress southeastward and also potentially expand southwestward somewhat along the southeastward-moving cold front this evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic States/Northeast... Deep-layer wind fields and shear are likely to remain weak, but moderately large CAPE (in excess of 2000 J/kg) may once again develop within weak surface troughing, along and southwest of the remnant surface frontal zone. It appears that this will become supportive of scattered strong thunderstorms with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and possibly a few instances of hail. ...Northern Plains... Stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling are likely to remain north of the international border through and beyond peak daytime heating, but isolated severe storms could develop mainly across North Dakota by this evening, accompanied by a risk for marginally severe hail and/or wind. ...Southern Arizona... A few pulse-type strong/locally severe storms may occur this afternoon through early evening within a relatively moist and moderately environment across parts of south-central/southeast Arizona, with downbursts/strong wind gusts as the primary risk. ...Eastern Utah/western Colorado... While not expected to be nearly as active as Friday, a few strong storms could occur regionally, with strong wind gusts/some hail possible on a very isolated basis. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/22/2024 Read more