Severe Storms

MD 1896 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 620... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1896 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwestern Kansas...and Southwestern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620... Valid 140118Z - 140245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620 continues. SUMMARY...The threat continues for WW 620, where thunderstorms have organized into a linear bowing MCS capable of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have grown upscale into a linear-bowing MCS, moving eastward off the High Plains and into northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Reports of 60-70 MPH winds have been associated with this complex, and it is moving into an environment with stronger CAPE/shear combinations that should result in further intensification. Additionally, surface flow ahead of the MCS is nearly perpendicular to the outflow boundary/cold pool, which should aid in maintaining upright convection and maintain MCS intensity with eastward extent. The greatest threat for damaging winds will be at the apex of any bowing segments, especially if a rear inflow jet is able to develop. While the primary threat will be for damaging winds, some brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to significant curvature of the low-level hodographs evident in recent KGLD VAD wind profiles, where 0-1 km SRH and 0-3 km SRH have increased to 148 m^2/s^2 and 318 m^2/s^2, respectively. ..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39220271 39390324 39520349 39740344 39880327 40070315 40340309 40560306 40800302 41070287 41300274 41410208 41410157 41390085 41170025 40959999 40450006 40000041 39590096 39310149 39130186 39220271 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE LHX TO 25 S AKO TO 15 E SNY TO 40 WSW MHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 ..HALBERT..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-075-095-115-121-125-140240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-071-109-153-179-181-193-199-203-140240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-029-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-145- 140240- Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0805 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas. Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska southeastward into Missouri. ...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri... An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH range can be expected. Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 08/14/2024 Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW LIC TO 35 SW AKO TO 30 N SNY. ..HALBERT..08/14/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 620 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-063-073-075-095-115-121-125-140140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-071-109-153-179-181-193-199-203-140140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR GREELEY LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE WICHITA NEC005-029-033-049-057-063-069-085-087-101-111-113-117-135-145- 140140- NE Read more

MD 1894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...NORTHERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...Western Wyoming...Northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132148Z - 140015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats. The severe threats should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis suggest that a shortwave trough is moving through the northern Rockies. Lift associated with this feature, is supporting scattered thunderstorm development near a pocket of moderate instability from northern Utah into eastern Idaho. MLCAPE within this area is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Mid-level lapse rates are also steep. In addition, the latest WSR-88D at Pocatello, Idaho has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with speed shear mostly in the mid-levels. This should be enough for locally strong to severe convection. A rotating storm or two will be possible with hail and gusty winds as the primary threats. The marginal severe threat may persist into the early evening. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 42501262 41431293 40251316 39681288 39571231 39841140 40571059 42001000 43070973 44060967 44440987 44701038 44731090 44581150 44221193 43661227 42871252 42501262 Read more

MD 1894 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN IDAHO...WESTERN WYOMING...NORTHERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1894 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Idaho...Western Wyoming...Northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132148Z - 140015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats. The severe threats should remain too marginal for weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest water-vapor imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis suggest that a shortwave trough is moving through the northern Rockies. Lift associated with this feature, is supporting scattered thunderstorm development near a pocket of moderate instability from northern Utah into eastern Idaho. MLCAPE within this area is estimated by the RAP to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Mid-level lapse rates are also steep. In addition, the latest WSR-88D at Pocatello, Idaho has 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with speed shear mostly in the mid-levels. This should be enough for locally strong to severe convection. A rotating storm or two will be possible with hail and gusty winds as the primary threats. The marginal severe threat may persist into the early evening. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH... LAT...LON 42501262 41431293 40251316 39681288 39571231 39841140 40571059 42001000 43070973 44060967 44440987 44701038 44731090 44581150 44221193 43661227 42871252 42501262 Read more

MD 1895 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0531 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and Northeastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 132231Z - 132330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across portions of eastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas and southwestern Nebraska, as convection is expected to organize into a MCS capable of damaging gusts later this evening. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of thunderstorms have developed over the High Plains of Colorado this afternoon, and are expected to continue to move eastward into a more favorable environment for convective organization. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kts (with a substantial warm-frontal boundary-parallel component of the vectors), along with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, will support further organization of these clusters into a linear convective system capable of damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat for damaging winds will be with any bowing segments that develop as convection matures later this evening. Large hail will be possible, particularly in the transition from multicell/supercell clusters into a linear system, though mid-level lapse rates of ~6.5 C/km could potentially be a limiting factor. Some tornado potential exists in the early evening transition period, when the nocturnal low-level jet will produce enlarged/curved hodoraphs with lots of streamwise vorticity in the lowest levels. However, the largely boundary-parallel shear vectors, along with colliding thunderstorm outflows, will limit any long-lived tornado potential. ..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41540080 41180009 40959995 40310004 39630077 39110170 39020216 39120313 39200397 39430423 39810432 40150436 40520433 40780430 41120419 41450382 41510321 41580282 41590196 41540080 Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0620 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0620 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0620 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more