Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the middle Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Well-defined short-wave trough is ejecting across the High Plains early this evening. LLJ is beginning to increase across eastern KS ahead of this feature, and is forecast to intensify across northwest MO/southern IA later this evening. Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the surface front from southeast NE into central KS. This activity should propagate downstream into a favorable zone of low-level warm advection after sunset, aided by increasing LLJ. Very moist, buoyant airmass exists ahead of the convection with MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg, extending as far northeast as northwest MO. Some supercell concern exists along this corridor despite the modest deep-layer shear. 00z sounding from TOP exhibited 30kt surface-6km bulk shear, with 0-3km SRH on the order of 400 m2/s2. Hail/wind threat exists with this activity along with some tornado risk. Upstream, secondary low-amplitude short-wave trough is shifting east across WY early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature, arcing from the southern Black Hills into southeast WY. Another band of organized robust storms has developed across eastern SD. Isolated marginally severe gusts or hail could be noted with this activity for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 08/15/2024 Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Aug 14 23:30:26 UTC 2024.

MD 1902 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KS...SOUTHEAST NE...FAR NORTHWEST MO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1902 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast KS...southeast NE...far northwest MO...and far southwest IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142057Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe potential this afternoon into the evening. Timing of thunderstorm development is uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance appears likely for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a warm front/modifying outflow boundary extending east-southeastward across northeast KS -- from a weak frontal-wave low over north-central KS. North of the boundary, billow clouds continue to erode from south to north as the antecedent outflow continues to destabilize amid strong diurnal heating. Here, steep mid-level lapse rates atop rich/sheltered boundary-layer moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) will result in strong surface-based instability. However, additional heating will be needed (especially with northward extent) to erode lingering inhibition (see OAX 19Z special sounding). Thunderstorms should eventually initiate near the frontal-wave low, near the warm front, and possibly to the north along a differential heating boundary, possibly aided by an approaching midlevel trough. Storms will spread eastward into the increasingly favorable environment -- characterized by 30-40 kt of effective shear, strong instability, and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH). This will favor organized storms, including the potential for supercells and organized clusters, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. Timing of thunderstorm development and intensification is still uncertain, though an eventual watch issuance is likely for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 38899778 39289797 39729796 40439769 41109738 41429716 41479676 41429591 41109560 40169532 39629532 39279555 38769605 38569643 38499682 38659739 38899778 Read more

MD 1901 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1901 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142053Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to slowly evolve to the west and northwest of the Pierre vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by occasional small to marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. It is possible that the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts could increase later this evening. However, at least until then, it appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Within lee surface troughing, inhibition is eroding with continuing insolation, for a destabilizing boundary layer near a modest low centered near Pierre. This is being aided by mid-level cooling overspreading the high plains, associated with the leading edge of troughing crossing the northern Rockies, which appears to be providing support for an evolving line of convection to the west of Mobridge into the Philip vicinity. A gradual further upscale growth appears possible during the next few hours, as convection acquires increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air becoming characterized by CAPE up to 2000 J/kg. In the presence of south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10-15 kt, storm motions will remain slow initially. However, modest shear, aided by veering of wind fields with height, might slowly contribute to increasing organization into early evening, particularly as convective outflow supports an increasingly prominent surface cold pool. Once this occurs, the risk for strong to severe surface gusts may begin to increase. Until then, though, more localized strong surface gusts and occasional small to marginal severe hail appear the primary potential severe hazards. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 45990078 45659962 43939945 43900110 45490153 45990078 Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0622 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0622 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 622 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 142230Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwestern Iowa Central to northeastern Kansas Northwestern Missouri East-central and southeastern Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning from 530 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop in the next couple hours near the western end of the watch and move roughly eastward while increasing in coverage through the evening. Large to isolated very large hail is possible early, while the severe-gust threat increases into evening. A tornado or two also is possible -- mainly over a part of the watch across northeastern KS, near an outflow boundary. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS to 35 miles north northeast of Omaha NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Edwards Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 14 22:01:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1900 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...FAR NORTHWEST OK...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1900 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the TX/OK Panhandles...far northwest OK...and south-central KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142000Z - 142200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe downbursts are possible through the afternoon, though a watch is not expected here. The severe threat will increase later this afternoon/evening with northeastward extent. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus is gradually deepening along a pre-frontal heat axis/confluence zone extending from the TX Panhandle northeastward into south-central KS. Over the TX Panhandle, cumulus is deeper and isolated convective initiation is underway. During the next few hours, continued heating/destabilization should aid in isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms along the heat axis, and potentially along a slow-moving cold front over southwest KS. Surface temperatures climbing into the upper 90s/lower 100s and associated steep low-level lapse rates will support strong to locally severe downbursts with any high-based storms that can initiate through the afternoon. Modest deep-layer flow/shear (especially from the TX Panhandle into south-central KS) should generally limit storm longevity, and generally weak large-scale ascent casts uncertainty on overall storm coverage. Therefore, a watch is not expected for this area. Both instability and deep-layer wind shear increase with northeastward extent into central/northeast KS, and any storms that spread/develop into this area will pose a greater severe threat later this afternoon into the evening. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37449851 35280095 35230148 35370188 35670213 35960211 36260178 37490047 38149975 38459943 38599922 38629887 38579848 38219816 37899819 37449851 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily reside across portions of the Great Basin this weekend, perhaps persisting into next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show low probabilities for wetting rainfall across much of CA, NV, and central TX through the forecast period. This will be driven by a gradually amplifying upper-level regime with upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and the establishment of a robust trough along the West Coast. Fuels across both regions should continue to dry and will support fire weather concerns if/when winds can approach critical thresholds. ...D4/Sat to D5/Sun - Nevada... A mid-level impulse embedded within the mean upper trough is forecast to pivot across northern CA into the northern Great Basin through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow associated with this feature will overspread the central to northern Sierra Nevada, resulting in strengthening downslope winds with somewhat widespread dry/breezy conditions across western and central NV. Afternoon relative humidity values in the teens should be common with winds between 15-25 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels, fire weather concerns are expected, though confidence in the coverage of 20+ mph remains limited away from the immediate lee side of the Sierras, and precludes higher risk probabilities. Breezy downslope winds should persist into D5/Sunday, but may be more limited in scope given weaker mid-level winds compared to Saturday. Overall, a west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime should persist into early next week and may continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across NV. ...Texas... Recent fuel and fire reports from north-central TX and southern OK indicate that grasses and shrubs are undergoing rapid drying amid increasingly hot temperatures. Forecast highs through the forecast period are expected to exceed 100 F each day (likely reaching near 105 F for many locations). While areas north of the Red River may see occasional rain/thunderstorm chances later this week, little to no precipitation is expected across central to western TX. These hot/dry conditions will promote further expansion of burnable fuels and steadily increasing ERCs across the region. The building upper ridge will modulate the potential for surface winds to exceed critical threshold, but fire concerns may emerge if winds trend higher than currently forecast. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily reside across portions of the Great Basin this weekend, perhaps persisting into next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show low probabilities for wetting rainfall across much of CA, NV, and central TX through the forecast period. This will be driven by a gradually amplifying upper-level regime with upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and the establishment of a robust trough along the West Coast. Fuels across both regions should continue to dry and will support fire weather concerns if/when winds can approach critical thresholds. ...D4/Sat to D5/Sun - Nevada... A mid-level impulse embedded within the mean upper trough is forecast to pivot across northern CA into the northern Great Basin through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow associated with this feature will overspread the central to northern Sierra Nevada, resulting in strengthening downslope winds with somewhat widespread dry/breezy conditions across western and central NV. Afternoon relative humidity values in the teens should be common with winds between 15-25 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels, fire weather concerns are expected, though confidence in the coverage of 20+ mph remains limited away from the immediate lee side of the Sierras, and precludes higher risk probabilities. Breezy downslope winds should persist into D5/Sunday, but may be more limited in scope given weaker mid-level winds compared to Saturday. Overall, a west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime should persist into early next week and may continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across NV. ...Texas... Recent fuel and fire reports from north-central TX and southern OK indicate that grasses and shrubs are undergoing rapid drying amid increasingly hot temperatures. Forecast highs through the forecast period are expected to exceed 100 F each day (likely reaching near 105 F for many locations). While areas north of the Red River may see occasional rain/thunderstorm chances later this week, little to no precipitation is expected across central to western TX. These hot/dry conditions will promote further expansion of burnable fuels and steadily increasing ERCs across the region. The building upper ridge will modulate the potential for surface winds to exceed critical threshold, but fire concerns may emerge if winds trend higher than currently forecast. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily reside across portions of the Great Basin this weekend, perhaps persisting into next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show low probabilities for wetting rainfall across much of CA, NV, and central TX through the forecast period. This will be driven by a gradually amplifying upper-level regime with upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and the establishment of a robust trough along the West Coast. Fuels across both regions should continue to dry and will support fire weather concerns if/when winds can approach critical thresholds. ...D4/Sat to D5/Sun - Nevada... A mid-level impulse embedded within the mean upper trough is forecast to pivot across northern CA into the northern Great Basin through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow associated with this feature will overspread the central to northern Sierra Nevada, resulting in strengthening downslope winds with somewhat widespread dry/breezy conditions across western and central NV. Afternoon relative humidity values in the teens should be common with winds between 15-25 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels, fire weather concerns are expected, though confidence in the coverage of 20+ mph remains limited away from the immediate lee side of the Sierras, and precludes higher risk probabilities. Breezy downslope winds should persist into D5/Sunday, but may be more limited in scope given weaker mid-level winds compared to Saturday. Overall, a west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime should persist into early next week and may continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across NV. ...Texas... Recent fuel and fire reports from north-central TX and southern OK indicate that grasses and shrubs are undergoing rapid drying amid increasingly hot temperatures. Forecast highs through the forecast period are expected to exceed 100 F each day (likely reaching near 105 F for many locations). While areas north of the Red River may see occasional rain/thunderstorm chances later this week, little to no precipitation is expected across central to western TX. These hot/dry conditions will promote further expansion of burnable fuels and steadily increasing ERCs across the region. The building upper ridge will modulate the potential for surface winds to exceed critical threshold, but fire concerns may emerge if winds trend higher than currently forecast. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily reside across portions of the Great Basin this weekend, perhaps persisting into next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show low probabilities for wetting rainfall across much of CA, NV, and central TX through the forecast period. This will be driven by a gradually amplifying upper-level regime with upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and the establishment of a robust trough along the West Coast. Fuels across both regions should continue to dry and will support fire weather concerns if/when winds can approach critical thresholds. ...D4/Sat to D5/Sun - Nevada... A mid-level impulse embedded within the mean upper trough is forecast to pivot across northern CA into the northern Great Basin through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow associated with this feature will overspread the central to northern Sierra Nevada, resulting in strengthening downslope winds with somewhat widespread dry/breezy conditions across western and central NV. Afternoon relative humidity values in the teens should be common with winds between 15-25 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels, fire weather concerns are expected, though confidence in the coverage of 20+ mph remains limited away from the immediate lee side of the Sierras, and precludes higher risk probabilities. Breezy downslope winds should persist into D5/Sunday, but may be more limited in scope given weaker mid-level winds compared to Saturday. Overall, a west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime should persist into early next week and may continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across NV. ...Texas... Recent fuel and fire reports from north-central TX and southern OK indicate that grasses and shrubs are undergoing rapid drying amid increasingly hot temperatures. Forecast highs through the forecast period are expected to exceed 100 F each day (likely reaching near 105 F for many locations). While areas north of the Red River may see occasional rain/thunderstorm chances later this week, little to no precipitation is expected across central to western TX. These hot/dry conditions will promote further expansion of burnable fuels and steadily increasing ERCs across the region. The building upper ridge will modulate the potential for surface winds to exceed critical threshold, but fire concerns may emerge if winds trend higher than currently forecast. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily reside across portions of the Great Basin this weekend, perhaps persisting into next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show low probabilities for wetting rainfall across much of CA, NV, and central TX through the forecast period. This will be driven by a gradually amplifying upper-level regime with upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and the establishment of a robust trough along the West Coast. Fuels across both regions should continue to dry and will support fire weather concerns if/when winds can approach critical thresholds. ...D4/Sat to D5/Sun - Nevada... A mid-level impulse embedded within the mean upper trough is forecast to pivot across northern CA into the northern Great Basin through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow associated with this feature will overspread the central to northern Sierra Nevada, resulting in strengthening downslope winds with somewhat widespread dry/breezy conditions across western and central NV. Afternoon relative humidity values in the teens should be common with winds between 15-25 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels, fire weather concerns are expected, though confidence in the coverage of 20+ mph remains limited away from the immediate lee side of the Sierras, and precludes higher risk probabilities. Breezy downslope winds should persist into D5/Sunday, but may be more limited in scope given weaker mid-level winds compared to Saturday. Overall, a west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime should persist into early next week and may continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across NV. ...Texas... Recent fuel and fire reports from north-central TX and southern OK indicate that grasses and shrubs are undergoing rapid drying amid increasingly hot temperatures. Forecast highs through the forecast period are expected to exceed 100 F each day (likely reaching near 105 F for many locations). While areas north of the Red River may see occasional rain/thunderstorm chances later this week, little to no precipitation is expected across central to western TX. These hot/dry conditions will promote further expansion of burnable fuels and steadily increasing ERCs across the region. The building upper ridge will modulate the potential for surface winds to exceed critical threshold, but fire concerns may emerge if winds trend higher than currently forecast. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to primarily reside across portions of the Great Basin this weekend, perhaps persisting into next week. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show low probabilities for wetting rainfall across much of CA, NV, and central TX through the forecast period. This will be driven by a gradually amplifying upper-level regime with upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and the establishment of a robust trough along the West Coast. Fuels across both regions should continue to dry and will support fire weather concerns if/when winds can approach critical thresholds. ...D4/Sat to D5/Sun - Nevada... A mid-level impulse embedded within the mean upper trough is forecast to pivot across northern CA into the northern Great Basin through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow associated with this feature will overspread the central to northern Sierra Nevada, resulting in strengthening downslope winds with somewhat widespread dry/breezy conditions across western and central NV. Afternoon relative humidity values in the teens should be common with winds between 15-25 mph. Given antecedent dry fuels, fire weather concerns are expected, though confidence in the coverage of 20+ mph remains limited away from the immediate lee side of the Sierras, and precludes higher risk probabilities. Breezy downslope winds should persist into D5/Sunday, but may be more limited in scope given weaker mid-level winds compared to Saturday. Overall, a west/southwesterly mid/upper-level flow regime should persist into early next week and may continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across NV. ...Texas... Recent fuel and fire reports from north-central TX and southern OK indicate that grasses and shrubs are undergoing rapid drying amid increasingly hot temperatures. Forecast highs through the forecast period are expected to exceed 100 F each day (likely reaching near 105 F for many locations). While areas north of the Red River may see occasional rain/thunderstorm chances later this week, little to no precipitation is expected across central to western TX. These hot/dry conditions will promote further expansion of burnable fuels and steadily increasing ERCs across the region. The building upper ridge will modulate the potential for surface winds to exceed critical threshold, but fire concerns may emerge if winds trend higher than currently forecast. ..Moore.. 08/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more