Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a weak front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Morning visible satellite imagery shows plentiful cloud cover near this boundary, and downstream across parts of NC and the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should allow at least weak instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. The glancing influence/ascent of an upper trough over eastern Canada, along with weak orographic lift, will likely encourage convection development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast to remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Still, enough flow and related shear may be present to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, while posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds as they move generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability is forecast this afternoon. But, confidence in a more organized wind threat remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... As the primary upper trough and related surface cold front continue eastward across Ontario/Quebec today, daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will occur over parts of western/northern NY. Although poor mid-level lapse rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak instability across this area (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg of less), low/mid-level winds and related shear in the cloud-bearing layer is expected to strengthen through this afternoon with the approach of the upper trough. Some high-resolution/convection-allowing model guidance shows a low-topped line of thunderstorms developing this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. As low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating, some of this convection could produce isolated strong to severe wind gusts given the strengthening low/mid-level flow expected. The area impacted should remain fairly small across western/northern NY (generally downstream of Lake Ontario) due to more even more limited instability farther east across central NY into northern New England. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a weak front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Morning visible satellite imagery shows plentiful cloud cover near this boundary, and downstream across parts of NC and the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should allow at least weak instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. The glancing influence/ascent of an upper trough over eastern Canada, along with weak orographic lift, will likely encourage convection development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast to remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Still, enough flow and related shear may be present to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, while posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds as they move generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability is forecast this afternoon. But, confidence in a more organized wind threat remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... As the primary upper trough and related surface cold front continue eastward across Ontario/Quebec today, daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will occur over parts of western/northern NY. Although poor mid-level lapse rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak instability across this area (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg of less), low/mid-level winds and related shear in the cloud-bearing layer is expected to strengthen through this afternoon with the approach of the upper trough. Some high-resolution/convection-allowing model guidance shows a low-topped line of thunderstorms developing this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. As low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating, some of this convection could produce isolated strong to severe wind gusts given the strengthening low/mid-level flow expected. The area impacted should remain fairly small across western/northern NY (generally downstream of Lake Ontario) due to more even more limited instability farther east across central NY into northern New England. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/01/2024 Read more