Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NM INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, mid Missouri Valley to upper Mississippi Valley, and central Appalachians region. ...Southern High Plains... In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four Corners, a strong midlevel jet is forecast to eject over NM by early evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms across NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the degree of destabilization by afternoon. Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms could become severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat. The eastern extent of the threat should be limited by the confined buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK. ...Central Plains and Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley... A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential remains evident on Saturday afternoon/evening. This region will largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent of afternoon/evening convection. There is sufficient confidence in destabilization and storm coverage to introduce a 5% area from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, though uncertainty remains rather high. ...Parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic on Saturday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the region during the afternoon. Veering wind profiles within the northwesterly flow regime will support effective shear for some storm organization, though it remains somewhat uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support an organized severe threat. Guidance has trended toward somewhat greater instability and storm coverage, and a small Marginal Risk has been included where confidence is currently highest in some severe threat. ..Dean.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NM INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, mid Missouri Valley to upper Mississippi Valley, and central Appalachians region. ...Southern High Plains... In advance of a southern-stream shortwave trough reaching the Four Corners, a strong midlevel jet is forecast to eject over NM by early evening Saturday. This will yield favorable deep-layer shear for organized storms across NM into parts of northwest TX. Strengthening large-scale ascent within a low-level warm/moist conveyor should overspread this region by Saturday morning. This should yield early-period convection and renders moderate uncertainty over the degree of destabilization by afternoon. Still, with ample boundary-layer heating to the south of early-day activity, a plume of at least weak-surface based buoyancy should develop. Renewed afternoon to early evening thunderstorms could become severe. Steep mid-level lapse rates should be confined along and west of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, rendering further uncertainty over the intensity and coverage of the severe threat. The eastern extent of the threat should be limited by the confined buoyancy plume and decreasing instability deeper into TX/OK. ...Central Plains and Lower/Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley... A relatively complex and uncertain evolution to convective potential remains evident on Saturday afternoon/evening. This region will largely remain within a low-amplitude mid-level ridge. This may flatten somewhat in between a southern-stream shortwave trough in the Southwest and a northern-stream trough over the southern Prairie Provinces to along the ND/MN international border. In association with the latter wave, a surface cold front should push southeast in the north-central states. Guidance varies with the degree of destabilization ahead of it, and especially with the spatial extent of afternoon/evening convection. There is sufficient confidence in destabilization and storm coverage to introduce a 5% area from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, though uncertainty remains rather high. ...Parts of the Northeast/Mid Atlantic... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through northwesterly flow aloft across parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic on Saturday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible across the region during the afternoon. Veering wind profiles within the northwesterly flow regime will support effective shear for some storm organization, though it remains somewhat uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support an organized severe threat. Guidance has trended toward somewhat greater instability and storm coverage, and a small Marginal Risk has been included where confidence is currently highest in some severe threat. ..Dean.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains generally on track. A few hours of dry and occasionally breezy conditions may precede isolated thunderstorm development across northern portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma. However, the marginal nature of these conditions suggest that wildfire-spread concerns should remain localized, so no fire weather highlights have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 09/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0121 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across the Lower CO River Valley, while a related belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreads the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during the afternoon. While this could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, fuels are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0677 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0677 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 19 18:28:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND ALSO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Midwest... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front, generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph. These threats should diminish quickly after sunset. ...Southern KS/northern OK vicinity... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the Southwest on Friday. Farther east, a surface boundary initially draped from the lower MO Valley into southern KS/northern OK is forecast to lift northward as a warm front. Large-scale ascent across much of the Plains may remain relatively limited, outside of low-level warm advection near/north of the front. However, relatively strong heating along the western/northern periphery of returning low-level moisture could support thunderstorm development during the afternoon somewhere in the vicinity of southwest KS/northwest OK. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support potential for somewhat organized convection. Strong to localized severe gusts may be the most likely hazard, but hail cannot be ruled out if any more discrete storms can move into an environment of greater moisture/instability. ...New Mexico... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of NM on Friday, in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave trough. While deep-layer shear will be rather strong, generally weak midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy may tend to limit the potential for more robust storms. If confidence increases regarding sufficient heating/destabilization, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region. ...Central Plains into the lower MO Valley... Guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for robust elevated convection Friday night into Saturday morning, within a low-level warm advection regime. Increasing elevated buoyancy and sufficient mid/upper-level flow could support a few stronger storms with hail potential, but confidence in sufficient coverage and a favored region for this potential is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND ALSO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Midwest... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front, generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph. These threats should diminish quickly after sunset. ...Southern KS/northern OK vicinity... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the Southwest on Friday. Farther east, a surface boundary initially draped from the lower MO Valley into southern KS/northern OK is forecast to lift northward as a warm front. Large-scale ascent across much of the Plains may remain relatively limited, outside of low-level warm advection near/north of the front. However, relatively strong heating along the western/northern periphery of returning low-level moisture could support thunderstorm development during the afternoon somewhere in the vicinity of southwest KS/northwest OK. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support potential for somewhat organized convection. Strong to localized severe gusts may be the most likely hazard, but hail cannot be ruled out if any more discrete storms can move into an environment of greater moisture/instability. ...New Mexico... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of NM on Friday, in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave trough. While deep-layer shear will be rather strong, generally weak midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy may tend to limit the potential for more robust storms. If confidence increases regarding sufficient heating/destabilization, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region. ...Central Plains into the lower MO Valley... Guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for robust elevated convection Friday night into Saturday morning, within a low-level warm advection regime. Increasing elevated buoyancy and sufficient mid/upper-level flow could support a few stronger storms with hail potential, but confidence in sufficient coverage and a favored region for this potential is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND ALSO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Midwest... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front, generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph. These threats should diminish quickly after sunset. ...Southern KS/northern OK vicinity... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the Southwest on Friday. Farther east, a surface boundary initially draped from the lower MO Valley into southern KS/northern OK is forecast to lift northward as a warm front. Large-scale ascent across much of the Plains may remain relatively limited, outside of low-level warm advection near/north of the front. However, relatively strong heating along the western/northern periphery of returning low-level moisture could support thunderstorm development during the afternoon somewhere in the vicinity of southwest KS/northwest OK. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support potential for somewhat organized convection. Strong to localized severe gusts may be the most likely hazard, but hail cannot be ruled out if any more discrete storms can move into an environment of greater moisture/instability. ...New Mexico... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of NM on Friday, in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave trough. While deep-layer shear will be rather strong, generally weak midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy may tend to limit the potential for more robust storms. If confidence increases regarding sufficient heating/destabilization, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region. ...Central Plains into the lower MO Valley... Guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for robust elevated convection Friday night into Saturday morning, within a low-level warm advection regime. Increasing elevated buoyancy and sufficient mid/upper-level flow could support a few stronger storms with hail potential, but confidence in sufficient coverage and a favored region for this potential is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND ALSO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon Friday in parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Midwest... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will pass across the Upper to central Great Lakes during the first half of the period. This will outpace a cold front that trails from a cyclone shifting northeast in MB, yielding a largely weakening to stalling front by Friday evening. Most guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should form within a low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front, generally focused on a moderate buoyancy plume emanating northeast from parts of MO/AR. A fast westerly upper jet will further impinge on this portion of the front as well, favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. A few marginally severe storms may develop within this regime. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, elongation of the mid to upper hodograph should support a threat for 1-1.5 inch hail, along with strong to marginally severe gusts from 45-60 mph. These threats should diminish quickly after sunset. ...Southern KS/northern OK vicinity... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the Southwest on Friday. Farther east, a surface boundary initially draped from the lower MO Valley into southern KS/northern OK is forecast to lift northward as a warm front. Large-scale ascent across much of the Plains may remain relatively limited, outside of low-level warm advection near/north of the front. However, relatively strong heating along the western/northern periphery of returning low-level moisture could support thunderstorm development during the afternoon somewhere in the vicinity of southwest KS/northwest OK. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will support potential for somewhat organized convection. Strong to localized severe gusts may be the most likely hazard, but hail cannot be ruled out if any more discrete storms can move into an environment of greater moisture/instability. ...New Mexico... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much of NM on Friday, in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave trough. While deep-layer shear will be rather strong, generally weak midlevel lapse rates and buoyancy may tend to limit the potential for more robust storms. If confidence increases regarding sufficient heating/destabilization, then severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region. ...Central Plains into the lower MO Valley... Guidance continues to vary regarding the potential for robust elevated convection Friday night into Saturday morning, within a low-level warm advection regime. Increasing elevated buoyancy and sufficient mid/upper-level flow could support a few stronger storms with hail potential, but confidence in sufficient coverage and a favored region for this potential is too low for probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 09/19/2024 Read more