Severe Storms

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning from the Middle Texas Coast into the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four Corners before then continuing eastward across the central Rockies and ending the period over the central Plains. An associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast NM/southeast CO vicinity across KS into the Mid MO Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push eastward across the central and southern Plains. Moderate moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold front. Expectation is for low 60s dewpoints to reach north Texas by early Saturday morning, with mid 60s dewpoints remaining confined to the TX Coastal Plain. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm, and this modified Gulf moisture is not expected to result in significant buoyancy. Nevertheless, persistent warm-air advection will likely result in elevated thunderstorms with the warm sector extending from the Middle TX Coast into the Ozark Plateau. Stronger vertical shear is anticipated with northward extent, and there is some potential for a few more organized storms capable of small hail across in the eastern OK/northwest AR vicinity. Even so, the overall severe threat is currently too low to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Low-end fire weather potential is noted for Thursday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest, but unsupportive fuel conditions should moderate the overall fire weather threat. A cold continental air mass will continue to overspread the eastern CONUS in the wake of Wednesday's cold frontal passage with surface high pressure building from the upper MS River Valley into the Southeast states. Across the West, a more progressive, less-amplified upper regime will begin to emerge with a shortwave trough migrating into the lower Great Basin by late Thursday. This will promote surface pressure falls across NV/UT with an uptick in low-level winds. ...Southern Plains... The surface high over the Southeast coupled with weak lee troughing along the southern High Plains should promote a dry return flow regime across TX and much of OK Thursday afternoon. Areas of 15-20 mph winds with RH reductions into the 20-30% range appear probable based on latest ensemble guidance. While areas of elevated fire weather conditions may emerge, fuels across the region do not support fire spread after recent precipitation and/or cool temperatures. ...Southern NV into AZ... The low-level mass response across the Great Basin will induce southerly winds across southern CA, NV, and much of AZ. Trajectories emanating out of southern CA/AZ (where single-digit dewpoint values are noted in recent surface observations) will advect dry air northward coincident with 15-20 mph winds. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible - especially along and north of the Mogollon Rim into far southern NV. But as with the southern Plains, latest fuel guidance shows ERCs are relatively modest (between the 60-80th percentile), which should modulate the overall fire threat and precludes highlights at this time (though fuel trends will continue to be monitored). ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to persist along the southern CA coast through at least the morning hours today. A prolonged offshore wind event continues to wane along the southern CA coast, but 06 UTC surface observations continue to show areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions within the higher coastal terrain. Multiple sites continue to report sustained offshore winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph. Additionally, nearly 12 hours of downslope warming/drying has resulted in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and teens. These conditions are expected to persist through the morning hours as a surface high over the Great Basin migrates east in the wake of a highly amplified upper trough over the central U.S. Upper-level ridging building through the day will promote diminishing low- to mid-level winds by afternoon, but ample diurnal heating and some degree of subsidence warming will maintain the very dry conditions. As such, the primary fire weather concern will be focused during the morning hours with dry, but calmer, conditions through the afternoon. ..Moore.. 12/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more