Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall severe-weather potential should remain relatively low next week, largely attributable to a frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico on Day 3/Sunday. Air mass modification/modest-caliber elevated moisture return may occur Monday/Day 4 from the western Gulf of Mexico into southeast Texas and Lower Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough amplifies over the southern Plains and Ozarks. A few strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out late Monday, but such potential should remain low overall. Additional low-level moistening will occur across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Tuesday/Day 5 ahead of the amplifying mid-level trough and associated cold front, but again, overall severe potential should remain low given the moisture and instability limitations. Convective potential should be very low, perhaps virtually nil, between Wednesday-Friday Days 6-8 as cold/stable continental trajectories prevail east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall severe-weather potential should remain relatively low next week, largely attributable to a frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico on Day 3/Sunday. Air mass modification/modest-caliber elevated moisture return may occur Monday/Day 4 from the western Gulf of Mexico into southeast Texas and Lower Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough amplifies over the southern Plains and Ozarks. A few strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out late Monday, but such potential should remain low overall. Additional low-level moistening will occur across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Tuesday/Day 5 ahead of the amplifying mid-level trough and associated cold front, but again, overall severe potential should remain low given the moisture and instability limitations. Convective potential should be very low, perhaps virtually nil, between Wednesday-Friday Days 6-8 as cold/stable continental trajectories prevail east of the Rockies. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... Overall severe-weather potential should remain relatively low next week, largely attributable to a frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico on Day 3/Sunday. Air mass modification/modest-caliber elevated moisture return may occur Monday/Day 4 from the western Gulf of Mexico into southeast Texas and Lower Mississippi Valley, as a shortwave trough amplifies over the southern Plains and Ozarks. A few strong storms cannot be entirely ruled out late Monday, but such potential should remain low overall. Additional low-level moistening will occur across parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast on Tuesday/Day 5 ahead of the amplifying mid-level trough and associated cold front, but again, overall severe potential should remain low given the moisture and instability limitations. Convective potential should be very low, perhaps virtually nil, between Wednesday-Friday Days 6-8 as cold/stable continental trajectories prevail east of the Rockies. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Southeast States/Carolinas into Virginia... Global guidance variability persists regarding some of the important timing/spatial details of relevant mass-field features and instability, however an eastward-shifting upper-level trough will likely overspread the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Sunday. A strong cyclonically curved wind field will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer with lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, potentially as far north as southern Virginia. 00z-based guidance has trended to trend a bit stronger with diurnal destabilization and the northern extent thereof, although the potential for fairly extensive convection and cloud cover early in the day remains evident, complicating forecast details. Regardless, strong to locally severe storms early in the day may persist, with at least modest destabilization and additional storm development and intensification during the day from Georgia into the Carolinas and possibly Virginia. A mixed convective mode seems probable including linear bowing segments and some semi-discrete supercells capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley... In closer regional proximity to the primary mid-level vort max and surface low track, 50s F surface dewpoints of minimal buoyancy (a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE or less) may be sufficient for a few strong to locally severe storms in presence of strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 50-60 kt southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Southeast States/Carolinas into Virginia... Global guidance variability persists regarding some of the important timing/spatial details of relevant mass-field features and instability, however an eastward-shifting upper-level trough will likely overspread the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Sunday. A strong cyclonically curved wind field will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer with lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, potentially as far north as southern Virginia. 00z-based guidance has trended to trend a bit stronger with diurnal destabilization and the northern extent thereof, although the potential for fairly extensive convection and cloud cover early in the day remains evident, complicating forecast details. Regardless, strong to locally severe storms early in the day may persist, with at least modest destabilization and additional storm development and intensification during the day from Georgia into the Carolinas and possibly Virginia. A mixed convective mode seems probable including linear bowing segments and some semi-discrete supercells capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley... In closer regional proximity to the primary mid-level vort max and surface low track, 50s F surface dewpoints of minimal buoyancy (a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE or less) may be sufficient for a few strong to locally severe storms in presence of strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 50-60 kt southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Southeast States/Carolinas into Virginia... Global guidance variability persists regarding some of the important timing/spatial details of relevant mass-field features and instability, however an eastward-shifting upper-level trough will likely overspread the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Sunday. A strong cyclonically curved wind field will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer with lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, potentially as far north as southern Virginia. 00z-based guidance has trended to trend a bit stronger with diurnal destabilization and the northern extent thereof, although the potential for fairly extensive convection and cloud cover early in the day remains evident, complicating forecast details. Regardless, strong to locally severe storms early in the day may persist, with at least modest destabilization and additional storm development and intensification during the day from Georgia into the Carolinas and possibly Virginia. A mixed convective mode seems probable including linear bowing segments and some semi-discrete supercells capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley... In closer regional proximity to the primary mid-level vort max and surface low track, 50s F surface dewpoints of minimal buoyancy (a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE or less) may be sufficient for a few strong to locally severe storms in presence of strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 50-60 kt southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Southeast States/Carolinas into Virginia... Global guidance variability persists regarding some of the important timing/spatial details of relevant mass-field features and instability, however an eastward-shifting upper-level trough will likely overspread the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Sunday. A strong cyclonically curved wind field will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer with lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, potentially as far north as southern Virginia. 00z-based guidance has trended to trend a bit stronger with diurnal destabilization and the northern extent thereof, although the potential for fairly extensive convection and cloud cover early in the day remains evident, complicating forecast details. Regardless, strong to locally severe storms early in the day may persist, with at least modest destabilization and additional storm development and intensification during the day from Georgia into the Carolinas and possibly Virginia. A mixed convective mode seems probable including linear bowing segments and some semi-discrete supercells capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley... In closer regional proximity to the primary mid-level vort max and surface low track, 50s F surface dewpoints of minimal buoyancy (a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE or less) may be sufficient for a few strong to locally severe storms in presence of strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 50-60 kt southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Southeast States/Carolinas into Virginia... Global guidance variability persists regarding some of the important timing/spatial details of relevant mass-field features and instability, however an eastward-shifting upper-level trough will likely overspread the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Sunday. A strong cyclonically curved wind field will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer with lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, potentially as far north as southern Virginia. 00z-based guidance has trended to trend a bit stronger with diurnal destabilization and the northern extent thereof, although the potential for fairly extensive convection and cloud cover early in the day remains evident, complicating forecast details. Regardless, strong to locally severe storms early in the day may persist, with at least modest destabilization and additional storm development and intensification during the day from Georgia into the Carolinas and possibly Virginia. A mixed convective mode seems probable including linear bowing segments and some semi-discrete supercells capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley... In closer regional proximity to the primary mid-level vort max and surface low track, 50s F surface dewpoints of minimal buoyancy (a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE or less) may be sufficient for a few strong to locally severe storms in presence of strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 50-60 kt southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Southeast States/Carolinas into Virginia... Global guidance variability persists regarding some of the important timing/spatial details of relevant mass-field features and instability, however an eastward-shifting upper-level trough will likely overspread the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Sunday. A strong cyclonically curved wind field will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer with lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, potentially as far north as southern Virginia. 00z-based guidance has trended to trend a bit stronger with diurnal destabilization and the northern extent thereof, although the potential for fairly extensive convection and cloud cover early in the day remains evident, complicating forecast details. Regardless, strong to locally severe storms early in the day may persist, with at least modest destabilization and additional storm development and intensification during the day from Georgia into the Carolinas and possibly Virginia. A mixed convective mode seems probable including linear bowing segments and some semi-discrete supercells capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley... In closer regional proximity to the primary mid-level vort max and surface low track, 50s F surface dewpoints of minimal buoyancy (a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE or less) may be sufficient for a few strong to locally severe storms in presence of strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 50-60 kt southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS INTO VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast States on Sunday. ...Southeast States/Carolinas into Virginia... Global guidance variability persists regarding some of the important timing/spatial details of relevant mass-field features and instability, however an eastward-shifting upper-level trough will likely overspread the upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Sunday. A strong cyclonically curved wind field will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer with lower/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, potentially as far north as southern Virginia. 00z-based guidance has trended to trend a bit stronger with diurnal destabilization and the northern extent thereof, although the potential for fairly extensive convection and cloud cover early in the day remains evident, complicating forecast details. Regardless, strong to locally severe storms early in the day may persist, with at least modest destabilization and additional storm development and intensification during the day from Georgia into the Carolinas and possibly Virginia. A mixed convective mode seems probable including linear bowing segments and some semi-discrete supercells capable of damaging winds and a tornado risk. ...Central Appalachians/Upper Ohio River Valley... In closer regional proximity to the primary mid-level vort max and surface low track, 50s F surface dewpoints of minimal buoyancy (a couple hundred J/kg MLCAPE or less) may be sufficient for a few strong to locally severe storms in presence of strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 50-60 kt southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

MD 2289 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST MS VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Areas affected...southwest MS vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270705Z - 270800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Potential for a tornado or two may linger in the southwest Mississippi vicinity for a few more hours. This potential is expected to remain too conditional/short-lived for a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Arcing band of convection had largely weakened last hour with notable warming in IR cloud tops. Still, the environment conditionally supports supercell development through about 09-10Z. The potential for a tornado or two will be most prominent along the northern edge of the mid 60s surface dewpoint plume, which has its apex up the Lower MS Valley. This northern extent of surface-based instability is not expected to expand much farther north during the pre-dawn hours. In addition, hodograph curvature will gradually diminish as strong low-level flow becomes further displaced from the lingering convective arc. ..Grams/Edwards.. 12/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32729071 32649046 31659033 31319050 31099082 31139130 31349158 31769134 32589084 32729071 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday into Saturday night, with severe storms likely from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely, potentially including a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains east-northeastward to the Ozarks/Mid-South Saturday and Saturday night, with a notable and concerning strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This is highlighted by global guidance depictions of increasingly strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover remain potential complicating factors as far as forecast details, particularly regarding the northern extent of the primary surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are also continues to be some longitudinal uncertainty as far as the initial severe risk across East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity during the day, although Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities have been expanded westward with this update. Even with these forecast uncertainties, ample mass response related to the approaching/ejection of the mid/upper-level trough, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer flow fields, should result in a steady uptick of potentially severe convection into Saturday night. This should initially occur across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common to the south of a warm front shifting northward across the Mid-South. With strengthening deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent through the day, it appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards will regionally occur, including semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments. This includes the potential for large hail, mostly with initial development during the day, as well as damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+) as 0-1 km SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. At least some damaging wind/tornado threat will probably continue through late Saturday night/early Sunday, including parts of Alabama/Florida Panhandle, and potentially northward into the Cumberland plateau vicinity. This risk will exist even with minimal buoyancy, in the presence of a robust deep-layer/low-level shear environment highlighted by a 50-65 kt low-level jet. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday into Saturday night, with severe storms likely from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely, potentially including a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains east-northeastward to the Ozarks/Mid-South Saturday and Saturday night, with a notable and concerning strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This is highlighted by global guidance depictions of increasingly strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover remain potential complicating factors as far as forecast details, particularly regarding the northern extent of the primary surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are also continues to be some longitudinal uncertainty as far as the initial severe risk across East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity during the day, although Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities have been expanded westward with this update. Even with these forecast uncertainties, ample mass response related to the approaching/ejection of the mid/upper-level trough, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer flow fields, should result in a steady uptick of potentially severe convection into Saturday night. This should initially occur across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common to the south of a warm front shifting northward across the Mid-South. With strengthening deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent through the day, it appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards will regionally occur, including semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments. This includes the potential for large hail, mostly with initial development during the day, as well as damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+) as 0-1 km SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. At least some damaging wind/tornado threat will probably continue through late Saturday night/early Sunday, including parts of Alabama/Florida Panhandle, and potentially northward into the Cumberland plateau vicinity. This risk will exist even with minimal buoyancy, in the presence of a robust deep-layer/low-level shear environment highlighted by a 50-65 kt low-level jet. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday into Saturday night, with severe storms likely from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely, potentially including a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains east-northeastward to the Ozarks/Mid-South Saturday and Saturday night, with a notable and concerning strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This is highlighted by global guidance depictions of increasingly strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover remain potential complicating factors as far as forecast details, particularly regarding the northern extent of the primary surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are also continues to be some longitudinal uncertainty as far as the initial severe risk across East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity during the day, although Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities have been expanded westward with this update. Even with these forecast uncertainties, ample mass response related to the approaching/ejection of the mid/upper-level trough, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer flow fields, should result in a steady uptick of potentially severe convection into Saturday night. This should initially occur across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common to the south of a warm front shifting northward across the Mid-South. With strengthening deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent through the day, it appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards will regionally occur, including semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments. This includes the potential for large hail, mostly with initial development during the day, as well as damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+) as 0-1 km SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. At least some damaging wind/tornado threat will probably continue through late Saturday night/early Sunday, including parts of Alabama/Florida Panhandle, and potentially northward into the Cumberland plateau vicinity. This risk will exist even with minimal buoyancy, in the presence of a robust deep-layer/low-level shear environment highlighted by a 50-65 kt low-level jet. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday into Saturday night, with severe storms likely from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely, potentially including a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains east-northeastward to the Ozarks/Mid-South Saturday and Saturday night, with a notable and concerning strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This is highlighted by global guidance depictions of increasingly strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover remain potential complicating factors as far as forecast details, particularly regarding the northern extent of the primary surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are also continues to be some longitudinal uncertainty as far as the initial severe risk across East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity during the day, although Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities have been expanded westward with this update. Even with these forecast uncertainties, ample mass response related to the approaching/ejection of the mid/upper-level trough, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer flow fields, should result in a steady uptick of potentially severe convection into Saturday night. This should initially occur across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common to the south of a warm front shifting northward across the Mid-South. With strengthening deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent through the day, it appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards will regionally occur, including semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments. This includes the potential for large hail, mostly with initial development during the day, as well as damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+) as 0-1 km SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. At least some damaging wind/tornado threat will probably continue through late Saturday night/early Sunday, including parts of Alabama/Florida Panhandle, and potentially northward into the Cumberland plateau vicinity. This risk will exist even with minimal buoyancy, in the presence of a robust deep-layer/low-level shear environment highlighted by a 50-65 kt low-level jet. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday into Saturday night, with severe storms likely from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely, potentially including a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains east-northeastward to the Ozarks/Mid-South Saturday and Saturday night, with a notable and concerning strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This is highlighted by global guidance depictions of increasingly strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover remain potential complicating factors as far as forecast details, particularly regarding the northern extent of the primary surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are also continues to be some longitudinal uncertainty as far as the initial severe risk across East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity during the day, although Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities have been expanded westward with this update. Even with these forecast uncertainties, ample mass response related to the approaching/ejection of the mid/upper-level trough, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer flow fields, should result in a steady uptick of potentially severe convection into Saturday night. This should initially occur across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common to the south of a warm front shifting northward across the Mid-South. With strengthening deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent through the day, it appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards will regionally occur, including semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments. This includes the potential for large hail, mostly with initial development during the day, as well as damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+) as 0-1 km SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. At least some damaging wind/tornado threat will probably continue through late Saturday night/early Sunday, including parts of Alabama/Florida Panhandle, and potentially northward into the Cumberland plateau vicinity. This risk will exist even with minimal buoyancy, in the presence of a robust deep-layer/low-level shear environment highlighted by a 50-65 kt low-level jet. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... An active severe-weather day is expected Saturday into Saturday night, with severe storms likely from east Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Tennessee Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are likely, potentially including a few strong (EF2+) tornadoes. ...East Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley to Tennessee Valley... A southern-stream shortwave trough is likely to overspread the southern Plains east-northeastward to the Ozarks/Mid-South Saturday and Saturday night, with a notable and concerning strengthening of winds aloft into late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This is highlighted by global guidance depictions of increasingly strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds in the lowest 2-3 km AGL. Scattered early day convection and residual cloud cover remain potential complicating factors as far as forecast details, particularly regarding the northern extent of the primary surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. There are also continues to be some longitudinal uncertainty as far as the initial severe risk across East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity during the day, although Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities have been expanded westward with this update. Even with these forecast uncertainties, ample mass response related to the approaching/ejection of the mid/upper-level trough, and a related steepening of mid-level lapse rates and strengthening deep-layer flow fields, should result in a steady uptick of potentially severe convection into Saturday night. This should initially occur across East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common to the south of a warm front shifting northward across the Mid-South. With strengthening deep-layer shear/forcing for ascent through the day, it appears that all severe-weather modes and hazards will regionally occur, including semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments. This includes the potential for large hail, mostly with initial development during the day, as well as damaging winds and tornadoes, some of which could be strong (EF2+) as 0-1 km SRH increases to 200-400 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. At least some damaging wind/tornado threat will probably continue through late Saturday night/early Sunday, including parts of Alabama/Florida Panhandle, and potentially northward into the Cumberland plateau vicinity. This risk will exist even with minimal buoyancy, in the presence of a robust deep-layer/low-level shear environment highlighted by a 50-65 kt low-level jet. ..Guyer.. 12/27/2024 Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH TO 35 NW LFT. WW 716 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 270800Z. ..GRAMS..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-023-053-270800- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0716 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S LCH TO 35 NW LFT. WW 716 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 270800Z. ..GRAMS..12/27/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 716 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-023-053-270800- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA CAMERON JEFFERSON DAVIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 716 TORNADO LA TX CW 270010Z - 270800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central Louisiana Far Southeast Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 610 PM until 200 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for a few tornadoes this evening and into the early overnight hours as they spread east-northeastward into parts of western and central Louisiana. Damaging winds up to 60-65 mph and isolated hail may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Natchitoches LA to 30 miles south southwest of Lake Charles LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 714...WW 715... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more