Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm chances appear low on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will lift northeast across New England toward the Canadian Maritimes on Monday. At the surface, deep low pressure over southern Ontario will lift north while an attendant cold front pushes offshore the Atlantic coast. In the wake of the Northeast U.S. system, another upper shortwave trough will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley region. A surface low is forecast to move from the KS/NE to IL/IN. A prior cold frontal passage into the Gulf of Mexico will result in richer boundary-layer moisture remaining confined to the immediate coastal area despite increasing southerly low-level flow across the south-central U.S. Meager elevated instability, generally less than 200 J/kg MUCAPE, will overspread portions of the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valley ahead of the surface low and upper trough. While a couple of lightning flashes are possible with developing precipitation during the evening/overnight, coverage is expected to remain less than 10 percent, precluding a general thunder delineation. ..Leitman.. 12/29/2024 Read more

MD 2319 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 726... FOR CENTRAL NC AND NORTHEAST SC
Mesoscale Discussion 2319 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Areas affected...central NC and northeast SC Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 726... Valid 291535Z - 291700Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 726 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind and a brief tornado or two will spread eastward through midday. DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has recently produced severe gusts in the Charlotte area (51 kt at KCLT and 53 kt at KEQY). Downstream instability is very weak to negligible, and lightning activity has diminished with the northern portion of the QLCS. However, very strong low-level flow (as noted on KCAE and TCLT VWPs prior to arrival of the line) and the current organized nature of the QLCS will continue to support a damaging-wind threat through the remainder of the morning. The strong low-level flow/shear will also support some potential for a brief line-embedded tornado. Longevity of the ongoing QLCS remains uncertain, due to the very weak instability. However, modest clearing and diurnal heating in advance of the QLCS will result in some steepening of low-level lapse rates, with a damaging-wind threat potentially spreading into northeast SC and a larger portion of central NC into early afternoon. ..Dean.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 36298076 36438010 36447959 36167896 34637851 33607849 33137889 33027954 33308027 33968025 35368020 36298076 Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE SAV TO 40 NNE CHS. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ350-370-372-374-291740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO EDISTO BEACH SC EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE SAV TO 40 NNE CHS. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ350-370-372-374-291740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO EDISTO BEACH SC EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE SAV TO 40 NNE CHS. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ350-370-372-374-291740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO EDISTO BEACH SC EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0724 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE SAV TO 40 NNE CHS. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ350-370-372-374-291740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC TO EDISTO BEACH SC EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 40 NM WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 724 TORNADO GA NC SC CW 291100Z - 291800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Georgia Southwestern North Carolina South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 600 AM until 100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The faster-moving northern part of a line of strong-severe thunderstorms will move northeastward across the watch area thriough midday, offering sporadic damaging to severe gusts and potential for a few embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles east southeast of Savannah GA to 45 miles north of Greenville SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 723... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0725 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 725 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E CTY TO 30 W JAX TO 40 SE SSI. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 725 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-007-019-031-089-109-125-291740- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BRADFORD CLAY DUVAL NASSAU ST. JOHNS UNION AMZ452-291740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0726 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 726 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CHS TO 5 E SOP TO 20 W DAN. ..HART..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 726 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-033-037-047-051-063-085-093-101-105-129-135-141- 155-163-183-191-291740- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CASWELL CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DURHAM HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE NEW HANOVER ORANGE PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON WAKE WAYNE SCC033-043-051-067-291740- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DILLON GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION AMZ250-252-254-256-291740- Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over the central and eastern Carolinas into southern Virginia. More-isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley, and over southernmost Florida. ...Carolinas... A large and negatively-tilted shortwave trough is rotating northeastward across the TN/OH Valleys today, with intense low and mid-level wind fields overspreading much of the eastern US. A pre-frontal squall line has advanced eastward into central NC and eastern SC, well ahead of the primary surface cold front and considerably faster than model guidance had predicted. This line is moving through weak instability, with very limited lightning being observed. Nevertheless, low-level winds and convergence along the line are quite strong, leading to gusty and occasional damaging winds. This trend will continue through the afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. ...NC/VA This Evening... Behind this line, widespread clouds and dewpoints in the 50s will result in continued weak thermodynamic profiles for deep convection. However, given the large-scale ascent and strong winds aloft, there remains some chance of re-development of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central NC into VA this evening. If this scenario unfolds, isolated damaging wind gusts could occur. ...OH/PA... A deep surface low currently over southern IN will track into northwest OH today, with a occluded front extending eastward from the low across OH. Widespread cloud cover will limit CAPE to 100-200 J/kg this afternoon ahead of the front. However, very strong winds aloft and large scale forcing for ascent is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. This fast-moving convection may result in locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado as it affects much of OH and western PA through early evening. ...FL Keys... An east-west band of thunderstorms is sagging southward across the FL Keys today. Several areas of rotation have been noted all morning along the line, which may pose a risk of gusty winds or waterspout/brief tornado activity. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over the central and eastern Carolinas into southern Virginia. More-isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley, and over southernmost Florida. ...Carolinas... A large and negatively-tilted shortwave trough is rotating northeastward across the TN/OH Valleys today, with intense low and mid-level wind fields overspreading much of the eastern US. A pre-frontal squall line has advanced eastward into central NC and eastern SC, well ahead of the primary surface cold front and considerably faster than model guidance had predicted. This line is moving through weak instability, with very limited lightning being observed. Nevertheless, low-level winds and convergence along the line are quite strong, leading to gusty and occasional damaging winds. This trend will continue through the afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. ...NC/VA This Evening... Behind this line, widespread clouds and dewpoints in the 50s will result in continued weak thermodynamic profiles for deep convection. However, given the large-scale ascent and strong winds aloft, there remains some chance of re-development of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central NC into VA this evening. If this scenario unfolds, isolated damaging wind gusts could occur. ...OH/PA... A deep surface low currently over southern IN will track into northwest OH today, with a occluded front extending eastward from the low across OH. Widespread cloud cover will limit CAPE to 100-200 J/kg this afternoon ahead of the front. However, very strong winds aloft and large scale forcing for ascent is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. This fast-moving convection may result in locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado as it affects much of OH and western PA through early evening. ...FL Keys... An east-west band of thunderstorms is sagging southward across the FL Keys today. Several areas of rotation have been noted all morning along the line, which may pose a risk of gusty winds or waterspout/brief tornado activity. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon over the central and eastern Carolinas into southern Virginia. More-isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley, and over southernmost Florida. ...Carolinas... A large and negatively-tilted shortwave trough is rotating northeastward across the TN/OH Valleys today, with intense low and mid-level wind fields overspreading much of the eastern US. A pre-frontal squall line has advanced eastward into central NC and eastern SC, well ahead of the primary surface cold front and considerably faster than model guidance had predicted. This line is moving through weak instability, with very limited lightning being observed. Nevertheless, low-level winds and convergence along the line are quite strong, leading to gusty and occasional damaging winds. This trend will continue through the afternoon across the eastern Carolinas. ...NC/VA This Evening... Behind this line, widespread clouds and dewpoints in the 50s will result in continued weak thermodynamic profiles for deep convection. However, given the large-scale ascent and strong winds aloft, there remains some chance of re-development of showers and occasional thunderstorms from central NC into VA this evening. If this scenario unfolds, isolated damaging wind gusts could occur. ...OH/PA... A deep surface low currently over southern IN will track into northwest OH today, with a occluded front extending eastward from the low across OH. Widespread cloud cover will limit CAPE to 100-200 J/kg this afternoon ahead of the front. However, very strong winds aloft and large scale forcing for ascent is expected to result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. This fast-moving convection may result in locally damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado as it affects much of OH and western PA through early evening. ...FL Keys... An east-west band of thunderstorms is sagging southward across the FL Keys today. Several areas of rotation have been noted all morning along the line, which may pose a risk of gusty winds or waterspout/brief tornado activity. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/29/2024 Read more