Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with a more amplified upper trough beginning to develop late in the period over the West. At the surface, a deep surface low will lift northeast across the Northeast, with surface high pressure building in its wake over much of the U.S. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A broad area of west/northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Wednesday, with a more amplified upper trough beginning to develop late in the period over the West. At the surface, a deep surface low will lift northeast across the Northeast, with surface high pressure building in its wake over much of the U.S. Dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area was added from the western Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 15-25% are expected. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected on D2/Tuesday as offshore gradients continue across southern California D1/Monday into D2/Tuesday. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. This will be reevaluated in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area was added from the western Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 15-25% are expected. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected on D2/Tuesday as offshore gradients continue across southern California D1/Monday into D2/Tuesday. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. This will be reevaluated in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area was added from the western Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 15-25% are expected. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected on D2/Tuesday as offshore gradients continue across southern California D1/Monday into D2/Tuesday. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. This will be reevaluated in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area was added from the western Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 15-25% are expected. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected on D2/Tuesday as offshore gradients continue across southern California D1/Monday into D2/Tuesday. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. This will be reevaluated in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area was added from the western Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 15-25% are expected. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected on D2/Tuesday as offshore gradients continue across southern California D1/Monday into D2/Tuesday. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. This will be reevaluated in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z An Elevated area was added from the western Texas Hill Country into south Texas due to dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. North-northeast sustained winds of 12-20 mph amid minimum RH of 15-25% are expected. Fuels are dry with some of the outlook area also having above normal fuel loading. Locally elevated conditions may develop in portions of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico as gusty westerly winds of 15-20 mph mix to the surface amid a dry air mass. ..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected on D2/Tuesday as offshore gradients continue across southern California D1/Monday into D2/Tuesday. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. This will be reevaluated in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Tuesday. A prior cold frontal passage across this region will result in limited boundary-layer moisture despite increasing low-level south/southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low. The exception will be along the immediate coast from near the Outer Banks to southern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Surface-based instability will remain limited, but weak elevated instability amid increasing large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms from the Outer Banks (Tuesday afternoon) into southern New England (mainly after 00z). Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Tuesday. A prior cold frontal passage across this region will result in limited boundary-layer moisture despite increasing low-level south/southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low. The exception will be along the immediate coast from near the Outer Banks to southern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Surface-based instability will remain limited, but weak elevated instability amid increasing large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms from the Outer Banks (Tuesday afternoon) into southern New England (mainly after 00z). Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Tuesday. A prior cold frontal passage across this region will result in limited boundary-layer moisture despite increasing low-level south/southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low. The exception will be along the immediate coast from near the Outer Banks to southern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Surface-based instability will remain limited, but weak elevated instability amid increasing large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms from the Outer Banks (Tuesday afternoon) into southern New England (mainly after 00z). Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Tuesday. A prior cold frontal passage across this region will result in limited boundary-layer moisture despite increasing low-level south/southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low. The exception will be along the immediate coast from near the Outer Banks to southern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Surface-based instability will remain limited, but weak elevated instability amid increasing large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms from the Outer Banks (Tuesday afternoon) into southern New England (mainly after 00z). Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Tuesday. A prior cold frontal passage across this region will result in limited boundary-layer moisture despite increasing low-level south/southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low. The exception will be along the immediate coast from near the Outer Banks to southern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Surface-based instability will remain limited, but weak elevated instability amid increasing large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms from the Outer Banks (Tuesday afternoon) into southern New England (mainly after 00z). Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Outer Banks into southern New England late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will pivot northeast from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Tuesday. A prior cold frontal passage across this region will result in limited boundary-layer moisture despite increasing low-level south/southeasterly flow ahead of a surface low. The exception will be along the immediate coast from near the Outer Banks to southern New England Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Surface-based instability will remain limited, but weak elevated instability amid increasing large-scale ascent and cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms from the Outer Banks (Tuesday afternoon) into southern New England (mainly after 00z). Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...OH Valley tonight... An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight. Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL, with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection, and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight across the lower and middle OH Valley. Forecast soundings show impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite weak with surface-based convection unlikely. Thus the severe threat is low. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...OH Valley tonight... An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight. Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL, with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection, and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight across the lower and middle OH Valley. Forecast soundings show impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite weak with surface-based convection unlikely. Thus the severe threat is low. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...OH Valley tonight... An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight. Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL, with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection, and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight across the lower and middle OH Valley. Forecast soundings show impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite weak with surface-based convection unlikely. Thus the severe threat is low. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...OH Valley tonight... An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight. Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL, with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection, and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight across the lower and middle OH Valley. Forecast soundings show impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite weak with surface-based convection unlikely. Thus the severe threat is low. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...OH Valley tonight... An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight. Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL, with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection, and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight across the lower and middle OH Valley. Forecast soundings show impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite weak with surface-based convection unlikely. Thus the severe threat is low. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE BIG BEND... Minor modifications were made to the Elevated areas based on the most recent observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, locally critical conditions are likely in southeast portions of the Elevated area in the western Texas Hill Country. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 12/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies today through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains. Surface cyclogenesis is expected with strengthening lee troughing. This pattern will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains, supporting a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma today. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. ...Southern California... Offshore gradients will increase today across southern California, with gusty winds (25-45 mph) across the Transverse ranges. This will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15-30%. An Elevated region was maintained with this outlook to cover this threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more