Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday. Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated. Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the East Coast States, as far north as southern New England. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be centered on eastern North Carolina from midday onward. ...Synopsis... South of a closed low over the western Ontario area, a strong/high-amplitude trough initially aligned roughly along the Mississippi Valley will shift rapidly eastward and then northeastward, acquiring substantial negative tilt with time. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward, clearing most of the coast through the afternoon, and eventually shifting southward and off the southern Florida coast/the Keys during the evening hours. ...Southern Atlantic Coast states... As a cold front advances eastward across the East Coast states through the morning and afternoon hours, strong ascent forced by the potent/advancing upper trough will support showers and embedded thunderstorms within the weakly unstable warm sector. Despite the thermodynamic deficiencies that are expected, a high-end wind field will exist, with flow veering gradually and increasing rapidly in magnitude with height. Resulting shear will favor supercells with any semi-discrete storms, while linear organization is also expected in an overall mixed-mode evolution. Along with potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes are also expected. The greatest risk appears to exist across the eastern North Carolina/Coastal Plain area, during the afternoon. Weaker flow aloft farther south into Florida suggests limiting southern extent of the SLGT risk area to the far northeastern South Carolina vicinity, similar to prior forecasts. Risk will end in most areas by late afternoon, as the front moves offshore in all areas except Florida, before finally clearing the Peninsula after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic region to southern New England... As a surface low deepens over the central Appalachians region and moves quickly northward through the day, low-topped convection near the trailing cold front may evolve into broken linear segments. The boundary layer is forecast to remain stable, with potential a couple hundred J/kg CAPE above 850 to 900mb, sufficient for occasional/sporadic lightning. Meanwhile, extremely strong low-level flow is expected, which will support very fast-moving convection. Given the strongly dynamic synoptic setup as the upper trough takes on increasingly negative tilt, the overall setup suggests locally strong wind gusts despite the surface-based stable layer. As such, will raise damaging wind probability to 15% and thus introduce SLGT risk to parts of southern New England and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the East Coast States, as far north as southern New England. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be centered on eastern North Carolina from midday onward. ...Synopsis... South of a closed low over the western Ontario area, a strong/high-amplitude trough initially aligned roughly along the Mississippi Valley will shift rapidly eastward and then northeastward, acquiring substantial negative tilt with time. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward, clearing most of the coast through the afternoon, and eventually shifting southward and off the southern Florida coast/the Keys during the evening hours. ...Southern Atlantic Coast states... As a cold front advances eastward across the East Coast states through the morning and afternoon hours, strong ascent forced by the potent/advancing upper trough will support showers and embedded thunderstorms within the weakly unstable warm sector. Despite the thermodynamic deficiencies that are expected, a high-end wind field will exist, with flow veering gradually and increasing rapidly in magnitude with height. Resulting shear will favor supercells with any semi-discrete storms, while linear organization is also expected in an overall mixed-mode evolution. Along with potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes are also expected. The greatest risk appears to exist across the eastern North Carolina/Coastal Plain area, during the afternoon. Weaker flow aloft farther south into Florida suggests limiting southern extent of the SLGT risk area to the far northeastern South Carolina vicinity, similar to prior forecasts. Risk will end in most areas by late afternoon, as the front moves offshore in all areas except Florida, before finally clearing the Peninsula after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic region to southern New England... As a surface low deepens over the central Appalachians region and moves quickly northward through the day, low-topped convection near the trailing cold front may evolve into broken linear segments. The boundary layer is forecast to remain stable, with potential a couple hundred J/kg CAPE above 850 to 900mb, sufficient for occasional/sporadic lightning. Meanwhile, extremely strong low-level flow is expected, which will support very fast-moving convection. Given the strongly dynamic synoptic setup as the upper trough takes on increasingly negative tilt, the overall setup suggests locally strong wind gusts despite the surface-based stable layer. As such, will raise damaging wind probability to 15% and thus introduce SLGT risk to parts of southern New England and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the East Coast States, as far north as southern New England. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be centered on eastern North Carolina from midday onward. ...Synopsis... South of a closed low over the western Ontario area, a strong/high-amplitude trough initially aligned roughly along the Mississippi Valley will shift rapidly eastward and then northeastward, acquiring substantial negative tilt with time. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward, clearing most of the coast through the afternoon, and eventually shifting southward and off the southern Florida coast/the Keys during the evening hours. ...Southern Atlantic Coast states... As a cold front advances eastward across the East Coast states through the morning and afternoon hours, strong ascent forced by the potent/advancing upper trough will support showers and embedded thunderstorms within the weakly unstable warm sector. Despite the thermodynamic deficiencies that are expected, a high-end wind field will exist, with flow veering gradually and increasing rapidly in magnitude with height. Resulting shear will favor supercells with any semi-discrete storms, while linear organization is also expected in an overall mixed-mode evolution. Along with potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes are also expected. The greatest risk appears to exist across the eastern North Carolina/Coastal Plain area, during the afternoon. Weaker flow aloft farther south into Florida suggests limiting southern extent of the SLGT risk area to the far northeastern South Carolina vicinity, similar to prior forecasts. Risk will end in most areas by late afternoon, as the front moves offshore in all areas except Florida, before finally clearing the Peninsula after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic region to southern New England... As a surface low deepens over the central Appalachians region and moves quickly northward through the day, low-topped convection near the trailing cold front may evolve into broken linear segments. The boundary layer is forecast to remain stable, with potential a couple hundred J/kg CAPE above 850 to 900mb, sufficient for occasional/sporadic lightning. Meanwhile, extremely strong low-level flow is expected, which will support very fast-moving convection. Given the strongly dynamic synoptic setup as the upper trough takes on increasingly negative tilt, the overall setup suggests locally strong wind gusts despite the surface-based stable layer. As such, will raise damaging wind probability to 15% and thus introduce SLGT risk to parts of southern New England and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the East Coast States, as far north as southern New England. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be centered on eastern North Carolina from midday onward. ...Synopsis... South of a closed low over the western Ontario area, a strong/high-amplitude trough initially aligned roughly along the Mississippi Valley will shift rapidly eastward and then northeastward, acquiring substantial negative tilt with time. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward, clearing most of the coast through the afternoon, and eventually shifting southward and off the southern Florida coast/the Keys during the evening hours. ...Southern Atlantic Coast states... As a cold front advances eastward across the East Coast states through the morning and afternoon hours, strong ascent forced by the potent/advancing upper trough will support showers and embedded thunderstorms within the weakly unstable warm sector. Despite the thermodynamic deficiencies that are expected, a high-end wind field will exist, with flow veering gradually and increasing rapidly in magnitude with height. Resulting shear will favor supercells with any semi-discrete storms, while linear organization is also expected in an overall mixed-mode evolution. Along with potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes are also expected. The greatest risk appears to exist across the eastern North Carolina/Coastal Plain area, during the afternoon. Weaker flow aloft farther south into Florida suggests limiting southern extent of the SLGT risk area to the far northeastern South Carolina vicinity, similar to prior forecasts. Risk will end in most areas by late afternoon, as the front moves offshore in all areas except Florida, before finally clearing the Peninsula after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic region to southern New England... As a surface low deepens over the central Appalachians region and moves quickly northward through the day, low-topped convection near the trailing cold front may evolve into broken linear segments. The boundary layer is forecast to remain stable, with potential a couple hundred J/kg CAPE above 850 to 900mb, sufficient for occasional/sporadic lightning. Meanwhile, extremely strong low-level flow is expected, which will support very fast-moving convection. Given the strongly dynamic synoptic setup as the upper trough takes on increasingly negative tilt, the overall setup suggests locally strong wind gusts despite the surface-based stable layer. As such, will raise damaging wind probability to 15% and thus introduce SLGT risk to parts of southern New England and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the East Coast States, as far north as southern New England. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be centered on eastern North Carolina from midday onward. ...Synopsis... South of a closed low over the western Ontario area, a strong/high-amplitude trough initially aligned roughly along the Mississippi Valley will shift rapidly eastward and then northeastward, acquiring substantial negative tilt with time. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward, clearing most of the coast through the afternoon, and eventually shifting southward and off the southern Florida coast/the Keys during the evening hours. ...Southern Atlantic Coast states... As a cold front advances eastward across the East Coast states through the morning and afternoon hours, strong ascent forced by the potent/advancing upper trough will support showers and embedded thunderstorms within the weakly unstable warm sector. Despite the thermodynamic deficiencies that are expected, a high-end wind field will exist, with flow veering gradually and increasing rapidly in magnitude with height. Resulting shear will favor supercells with any semi-discrete storms, while linear organization is also expected in an overall mixed-mode evolution. Along with potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes are also expected. The greatest risk appears to exist across the eastern North Carolina/Coastal Plain area, during the afternoon. Weaker flow aloft farther south into Florida suggests limiting southern extent of the SLGT risk area to the far northeastern South Carolina vicinity, similar to prior forecasts. Risk will end in most areas by late afternoon, as the front moves offshore in all areas except Florida, before finally clearing the Peninsula after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic region to southern New England... As a surface low deepens over the central Appalachians region and moves quickly northward through the day, low-topped convection near the trailing cold front may evolve into broken linear segments. The boundary layer is forecast to remain stable, with potential a couple hundred J/kg CAPE above 850 to 900mb, sufficient for occasional/sporadic lightning. Meanwhile, extremely strong low-level flow is expected, which will support very fast-moving convection. Given the strongly dynamic synoptic setup as the upper trough takes on increasingly negative tilt, the overall setup suggests locally strong wind gusts despite the surface-based stable layer. As such, will raise damaging wind probability to 15% and thus introduce SLGT risk to parts of southern New England and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the East Coast States, as far north as southern New England. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be centered on eastern North Carolina from midday onward. ...Synopsis... South of a closed low over the western Ontario area, a strong/high-amplitude trough initially aligned roughly along the Mississippi Valley will shift rapidly eastward and then northeastward, acquiring substantial negative tilt with time. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward, clearing most of the coast through the afternoon, and eventually shifting southward and off the southern Florida coast/the Keys during the evening hours. ...Southern Atlantic Coast states... As a cold front advances eastward across the East Coast states through the morning and afternoon hours, strong ascent forced by the potent/advancing upper trough will support showers and embedded thunderstorms within the weakly unstable warm sector. Despite the thermodynamic deficiencies that are expected, a high-end wind field will exist, with flow veering gradually and increasing rapidly in magnitude with height. Resulting shear will favor supercells with any semi-discrete storms, while linear organization is also expected in an overall mixed-mode evolution. Along with potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes are also expected. The greatest risk appears to exist across the eastern North Carolina/Coastal Plain area, during the afternoon. Weaker flow aloft farther south into Florida suggests limiting southern extent of the SLGT risk area to the far northeastern South Carolina vicinity, similar to prior forecasts. Risk will end in most areas by late afternoon, as the front moves offshore in all areas except Florida, before finally clearing the Peninsula after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic region to southern New England... As a surface low deepens over the central Appalachians region and moves quickly northward through the day, low-topped convection near the trailing cold front may evolve into broken linear segments. The boundary layer is forecast to remain stable, with potential a couple hundred J/kg CAPE above 850 to 900mb, sufficient for occasional/sporadic lightning. Meanwhile, extremely strong low-level flow is expected, which will support very fast-moving convection. Given the strongly dynamic synoptic setup as the upper trough takes on increasingly negative tilt, the overall setup suggests locally strong wind gusts despite the surface-based stable layer. As such, will raise damaging wind probability to 15% and thus introduce SLGT risk to parts of southern New England and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST SOUTH TO FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the East Coast States, as far north as southern New England. The most probable area for a few tornadoes and damaging winds appears to be centered on eastern North Carolina from midday onward. ...Synopsis... South of a closed low over the western Ontario area, a strong/high-amplitude trough initially aligned roughly along the Mississippi Valley will shift rapidly eastward and then northeastward, acquiring substantial negative tilt with time. At the surface, a cold front will sweep eastward, clearing most of the coast through the afternoon, and eventually shifting southward and off the southern Florida coast/the Keys during the evening hours. ...Southern Atlantic Coast states... As a cold front advances eastward across the East Coast states through the morning and afternoon hours, strong ascent forced by the potent/advancing upper trough will support showers and embedded thunderstorms within the weakly unstable warm sector. Despite the thermodynamic deficiencies that are expected, a high-end wind field will exist, with flow veering gradually and increasing rapidly in magnitude with height. Resulting shear will favor supercells with any semi-discrete storms, while linear organization is also expected in an overall mixed-mode evolution. Along with potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes are also expected. The greatest risk appears to exist across the eastern North Carolina/Coastal Plain area, during the afternoon. Weaker flow aloft farther south into Florida suggests limiting southern extent of the SLGT risk area to the far northeastern South Carolina vicinity, similar to prior forecasts. Risk will end in most areas by late afternoon, as the front moves offshore in all areas except Florida, before finally clearing the Peninsula after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic region to southern New England... As a surface low deepens over the central Appalachians region and moves quickly northward through the day, low-topped convection near the trailing cold front may evolve into broken linear segments. The boundary layer is forecast to remain stable, with potential a couple hundred J/kg CAPE above 850 to 900mb, sufficient for occasional/sporadic lightning. Meanwhile, extremely strong low-level flow is expected, which will support very fast-moving convection. Given the strongly dynamic synoptic setup as the upper trough takes on increasingly negative tilt, the overall setup suggests locally strong wind gusts despite the surface-based stable layer. As such, will raise damaging wind probability to 15% and thus introduce SLGT risk to parts of southern New England and coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic region, with some gusts in excess of 60 MPH expected. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

MD 2257 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102345Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Weak, shallow convection is expected to overspread southeast Alabama into southern Georgia through the late evening hours. This activity may pose a low-end tornado threat, but watch issuance is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, shallow convection has been developing across southeast AL and the FL Panhandle along two low-level confluence axes ahead of the primary precipitation shield and attendant surface cold front. Some of the deeper (albeit still shallow, 20-25 kft echo tops) convection has exhibited signs of low-level rotation over the past 30 minutes. Despite very modest buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by regional VPWs should support some degree of low-level storm organization, including the potential for modest mesocyclones and perhaps a brief tornado. The limited thermodynamic environment will modulate the overall severe threat, as evidenced by sparse lightning flashes attendant to this convection, which implies generally weak/shallow updrafts. Because of this, watch issuance is not anticipated. However, additional rotating shallow convection is possible through the late evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into southern GA in tandem with an adequately warm/moist low-level air mass. ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30948643 31218636 31608593 32308489 32788391 32808346 32768310 32588281 32358267 31888255 31378260 31068281 30928301 30868332 30658532 30668570 30728605 30808626 30948643 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe thunderstorms remain possible -- mainly from portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into Georgia tonight. ...Mouth of the Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Meager instability is indicated ahead of a cold front advancing across the Southeast this evening. As a result of the lack of appreciable CAPE, inland thunder has largely dissipated over the past hour within the band of pre-frontal convection extending from the central Appalachians to far southeastern Louisiana. With that said, a very favorable kinematic environment for severe storms remains in place, as the upper trough continues to advance across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the end of the period. Strong ascent will maintain convection near and ahead of the frontal zone, and the aforementioned wind field continues to suggest low-probability/MRGL risk for gusty winds and/or a tornado into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe thunderstorms remain possible -- mainly from portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into Georgia tonight. ...Mouth of the Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Meager instability is indicated ahead of a cold front advancing across the Southeast this evening. As a result of the lack of appreciable CAPE, inland thunder has largely dissipated over the past hour within the band of pre-frontal convection extending from the central Appalachians to far southeastern Louisiana. With that said, a very favorable kinematic environment for severe storms remains in place, as the upper trough continues to advance across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the end of the period. Strong ascent will maintain convection near and ahead of the frontal zone, and the aforementioned wind field continues to suggest low-probability/MRGL risk for gusty winds and/or a tornado into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe thunderstorms remain possible -- mainly from portions of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into Georgia tonight. ...Mouth of the Mississippi to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Meager instability is indicated ahead of a cold front advancing across the Southeast this evening. As a result of the lack of appreciable CAPE, inland thunder has largely dissipated over the past hour within the band of pre-frontal convection extending from the central Appalachians to far southeastern Louisiana. With that said, a very favorable kinematic environment for severe storms remains in place, as the upper trough continues to advance across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the end of the period. Strong ascent will maintain convection near and ahead of the frontal zone, and the aforementioned wind field continues to suggest low-probability/MRGL risk for gusty winds and/or a tornado into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Moore.. 12/11/2024 Read more

MD 2257 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2257 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0545 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102345Z - 110145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Weak, shallow convection is expected to overspread southeast Alabama into southern Georgia through the late evening hours. This activity may pose a low-end tornado threat, but watch issuance is currently not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, shallow convection has been developing across southeast AL and the FL Panhandle along two low-level confluence axes ahead of the primary precipitation shield and attendant surface cold front. Some of the deeper (albeit still shallow, 20-25 kft echo tops) convection has exhibited signs of low-level rotation over the past 30 minutes. Despite very modest buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), 150-200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH sampled by regional VPWs should support some degree of low-level storm organization, including the potential for modest mesocyclones and perhaps a brief tornado. The limited thermodynamic environment will modulate the overall severe threat, as evidenced by sparse lightning flashes attendant to this convection, which implies generally weak/shallow updrafts. Because of this, watch issuance is not anticipated. However, additional rotating shallow convection is possible through the late evening hours as this activity spreads east/northeast into southern GA in tandem with an adequately warm/moist low-level air mass. ..Moore/Gleason.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30948643 31218636 31608593 32308489 32788391 32808346 32768310 32588281 32358267 31888255 31378260 31068281 30928301 30868332 30658532 30668570 30728605 30808626 30948643 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 10 23:53:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 10 22:26:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...D3/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D3/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ...High/Southern Plains... As the progressive pattern of trough ejections continues through early next week, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however,fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...D3/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D3/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ...High/Southern Plains... As the progressive pattern of trough ejections continues through early next week, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however,fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...D3/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D3/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ...High/Southern Plains... As the progressive pattern of trough ejections continues through early next week, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however,fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...D3/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D3/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ...High/Southern Plains... As the progressive pattern of trough ejections continues through early next week, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however,fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...D3/Thursday Florida Peninsula... A deep long-wave trough will move across the eastern US on D3/Thursday, with attendant cold front and enhanced west to northwest flow aloft overspreading portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula. Though the strongest flow aloft will remain to the north, there is potential for breezy surface winds around 10-15 mph to overlap relative humidity around 35-40 percent as drier and cooler air filters in behind the front. This region has received well below normal rainfall in the last 30-60 days, with ERCs approaching the 80-90th percentile. Rainfall is forecast with the frontal passage, most potential for wetting rainfall on the western coast of the peninsula. As winds and relative humidity look to be more in line with Elevated fire weather concerns and with potential for rainfall, no areas are needed at this time but trends will be monitored in the coming days given the Critical status of fuels. ...High/Southern Plains... As the progressive pattern of trough ejections continues through early next week, periods of dry/windy conditions are expected across the High/Southern Plains, however,fuels do not appear supportive of large-fire potential at this time. ERC forecasts do indicate fuels will dry, particularly across western Texas into eastern New Mexico, but largely remain below Critical thresholds. ..Thornton.. 12/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more