Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave upper trough will traverse the Midwest and Great Lakes region on Day 4/Mon. Meanwhile, a cold front will track southeast across the southern Plains and Mid-South vicinity, extending from northern AL toward the Upper TX Coast/south-central TX by early Day 5/Tue. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will bring Gulf moisture across the south and east Texas into the lower MS Valley/central Gulf coast region, aiding in modest destabilization on Monday. However, stronger mid/upper level flow and large-scale ascent will remain north over the Midwest. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will mostly be parallel to the cold front. As a result, warm-advection precipitation and thunderstorms are likely from east TX into the Lower MS Valley, but severe potential appears limited. The cold front from Day 4/Mon will likely stall on Day 5/Tue across parts of the TX coast and Lower MS Valley. By late Tuesday into Day 6/Wed, another upper trough is expected to eject across the Plains into the Southeast. A sharper cold front associated with this system will move offshore the Gulf coast, with some potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms. However, given prior days' convection, poor heating/widespread cloudiness and weak instability, severe potential is not expected. Given the strong cold front intruding into the Gulf, boundary-layer moisture will become scant and severe- thunderstorm potential is expected to be low Days 7-8/Thu-Fri. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... In the wake of the progressive mid-level trough moving over the South Plains D1/Fri, shortwave ridging will rapidly develop over the western High Plains ahead of a second deepening trough farther west. The ridging will favor weak winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day. The ridge will break down ahead of the strengthening mid-level trough late in the day into early D3/Sun. Strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow west of a surface lee trough over parts of the Rockies and High Plains. However, the trough aloft is expected to be poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, supporting only modest surface winds and relatively poor overlap with critically low RH values. This should largely negate fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to traverse the southern Rockies today, reaching central NM by peak heating. In response to the arrival of the wave, a lee cyclone across east/southeast CO will deepen, intensifying westerly downslope surface winds over the southern High Plains and lee of the Rockies. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph (gusting to 35-40 mph) are possible, given deep mixing and the approach of a 45-55 knot mid-level jet. The downslope trajectories, deep mixing and mild temperatures will support afternoon RH values of 12-15%. Despite several hours of elevated to critical meteorological conditions, the main limiting factor appears to be the lack of critically dry fuels. With seasonal ERC values of 60-80%, area fuels should be capable of supporting some elevated fire-weather risk, though conditions do not appear favorable for more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan southwestward toward the Red River by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread north across east TX into southeast OK, and eastward across AR/LA. While vertically veering wind profiles typically would support some potential for organized convection, thermodynamics are expected to remain rather poor due to low-level inhibition and weak lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger height falls are not expected across the region until late in the period, further suppressing deep convective potential through much of the forecast period. While isolated elevated convection is possible in the low-level warm advection regime, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan southwestward toward the Red River by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread north across east TX into southeast OK, and eastward across AR/LA. While vertically veering wind profiles typically would support some potential for organized convection, thermodynamics are expected to remain rather poor due to low-level inhibition and weak lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger height falls are not expected across the region until late in the period, further suppressing deep convective potential through much of the forecast period. While isolated elevated convection is possible in the low-level warm advection regime, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan southwestward toward the Red River by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread north across east TX into southeast OK, and eastward across AR/LA. While vertically veering wind profiles typically would support some potential for organized convection, thermodynamics are expected to remain rather poor due to low-level inhibition and weak lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger height falls are not expected across the region until late in the period, further suppressing deep convective potential through much of the forecast period. While isolated elevated convection is possible in the low-level warm advection regime, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan southwestward toward the Red River by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread north across east TX into southeast OK, and eastward across AR/LA. While vertically veering wind profiles typically would support some potential for organized convection, thermodynamics are expected to remain rather poor due to low-level inhibition and weak lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger height falls are not expected across the region until late in the period, further suppressing deep convective potential through much of the forecast period. While isolated elevated convection is possible in the low-level warm advection regime, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate east from the Rockies into the Plains on Sunday. As this occurs, a surface low will track across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop southeast across much of the northern/central Plains through the day. The front will continue southeast through the nighttime hours, becoming positioned from near Lake Michigan southwestward toward the Red River by Monday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread north across east TX into southeast OK, and eastward across AR/LA. While vertically veering wind profiles typically would support some potential for organized convection, thermodynamics are expected to remain rather poor due to low-level inhibition and weak lapse rates. Furthermore, stronger height falls are not expected across the region until late in the period, further suppressing deep convective potential through much of the forecast period. While isolated elevated convection is possible in the low-level warm advection regime, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Central/South-Central States... An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface, where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the evening hours. ...Pacific Coast States... Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period, resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200 J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection. ..Leitman.. 12/13/2024 Read more