Severe Storms

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N VCT TO 35 S UTS TO 40 N LFK TO 15 NW GGG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286 ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC031-085-262240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE DE SOTO SABINE TXC005-039-071-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-347-351-361-365-373- 401-403-405-407-419-457-481-262240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BRAZORIA CHAMBERS FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA POLK RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TYLER WHARTON Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Dec 26 21:18:23 UTC 2024.

MD 2284 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 714... FOR NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...northeast Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 714... Valid 261912Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 714 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail continues across northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Potential may increase by 21-00z/3-6 pm CST. DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms will continue to track northeast across the region through late afternoon. While strong vertical shear is resulting in some organized line segments and more semi-discrete cells, convection has struggled to maintain intensity given the weak thermodynamic environment. Nevertheless, some additional destabilization may occur over the next couple of hours while the low-level jet increases with eastward extent. Isolated large hail to 1.75 inch diameter and gusts to 65 mph still remains possible with elevated convection into early evening. ..Leitman/Thompson.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 33399576 33449377 32979341 32349344 32289416 32279585 32199633 32589637 33179614 33399576 Read more

MD 2285 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 715... FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Areas affected...Southeastern Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 715... Valid 261914Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of southeast Texas as storms intensify across the region. DISCUSSION...Storm intensification across southeast TX has been gradual over the past several hours with most storms struggling to maintain intensity, possibly owing to numerous destructive storm interactions/colliding outflows. Despite this, the overall trend has been towards more intense updrafts as evidence by colder cloud-top temperatures in GOES IR imagery with the stronger pulses. Additionally, KHGX velocity data has shown a few weak, but persistent, low/mid-level mesocyclones with some of the stronger storms. Environmentally, temperatures continue to warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of a broken line of storms (delineating the primary surface trough) along the TX coast, and KHGX VWP observations have sampled strengthening winds through the 1-3 km layer over the past 2 hours with 0-1 km SRH between 150-200 m2/s2. Further east into far southeast TX, cooler temperatures are yielding less buoyancy compared to areas further southwest along the coast, but southeasterly winds are supporting effective SRH on the order of 200-250 m2/s2 based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Latest high-res guidance suggests that the environment will continue to become more favorable for well-organized convection as the surface low deepens to the north, and given the aforementioned convective trends, further intensification appears probable through late afternoon. In the short term, the greatest severe/tornado risk will likely be associated with the stronger cells within the line approaching the Houston area and in far southeast TX where low-level mesocyclones associated with persistent supercells have been noted. ..Moore.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP... LAT...LON 28589690 29309651 30079628 30639623 31109635 31629605 32079527 32179469 31959401 31439368 31109355 30579357 30209381 29889413 29309492 28929558 28729601 28569637 28519655 28479676 28479683 28489691 28589690 Read more

WW 0714 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TYR TO PRX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2284 ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 714 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC073-081-091-262140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER MILLER LAC015-017-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BOSSIER CADDO TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-423-449-459-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CAMP CASS FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON Read more

WW 0715 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE VCT TO 40 NW HOU TO 40 NW LFK TO 15 NE TYR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2285 ..MOORE..12/26/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...HGX...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 715 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC031-085-262140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE DE SOTO SABINE TXC005-039-071-073-157-167-199-201-241-245-291-339-347-351-361- 365-373-401-403-405-407-419-455-457-481-262140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA BRAZORIA CHAMBERS CHEROKEE FORT BEND GALVESTON HARDIN HARRIS JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE PANOLA POLK RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SAN JACINTO SHELBY TRINITY TYLER WHARTON Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will progress across the CONUS into the middle of next week before an upper ridge begins to build over the Interior West. Multiple surface lows will develop across the Plains and track eastward toward the East Coast before High Pressure overspreads the CONUS by the end of the period. Through the extended period, cool conditions across the northern U.S., and ample precipitation accumulations from central California into the Northwest, as well as the southern/central Plains to the East Coast, will mitigate significant wildfire-spread concerns. Dry and breezy conditions are likely into the weekend over the southern High Plains, before a surface low rapidly deepens over the central Plains on Day 5/Monday, which will encourage Critically dry and windy conditions over the southern High Plains. Given preceding dry days with no appreciable rainfall accumulations, fine fuels may dry out enough by Monday to support some wildfire-spread potential, with 40 percent Critical probabilities introduced. By the middle of next week, surface high pressure will become well-established over the Great Basin, which may support the development of a modest pressure gradient over southern California. Medium-range guidance consensus depicts dry low-level air with some offshore component of flow. The strength of the pressure gradient and associated offshore wind speeds do not appear strong enough to support Critical probabilities at this time. However, probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if model guidance trends stronger with the surface winds. It is also plausible that terrain-influences may locally augment surface winds and the subsequent need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 time frame for next Tuesday-Thursday. ..Squitieri.. 12/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a strong (potentially EF2+) tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Texas. Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75" in diameter will also be possible from east Texas this afternoon into Louisiana, southern Arkansas and far west central Mississippi overnight. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities in parts of central Texas have been adjusted to account for the progression of ongoing convection. Quasi-discrete supercells continue in parts of southeast Texas as well as to the northwest of Houston. These storms will continue to post the greatest threat for tornadoes (potentially strong). See MCD 2284 and 2285 for additional short-term, mesoscale details. ..Wendt.. 12/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024/ ...East TX/LA/southern AR through tonight... Elevated convection has already formed over north central TX this morning in a band of ascent preceding a midlevel shortwave trough moving eastward. New thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon farther to the south and east across east/southeast TX, as the warm sector spreads northward in advance of a weak surface cyclone. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s beneath midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km will drive MLCAPE ranging from 500 J/kg a little south of I-20 to 1500-2000 J/kg across southeast TX by late afternoon, where surface-based storms are likely with small breaks in the stratus. Vertical shear profiles will be characterized by sufficiently long hodographs (effective bulk shear in excess of 45 kt) and low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2) for supercells. The initial storms will be more cellular across southeast TX with a gradual transition to a mixed mode/band of storms this evening into tonight as the storms spread eastward/northeastward across LA/southern AR. The surface-based supercells in southeast TX will be capable of producing tornadoes from early afternoon into late evening (including a strong/EF2+ tornado or two), along with isolated large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter). With the gradual change in storms to a more linear mode, the potential for wind damage (and embedded tornadoes) will persist into tonight. Read more