Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Showers and a few lightning flashes will be possible Friday, particularly across the high terrain of northern Utah and vicinity. ...Discussion... Within the background quasi-zonal flow aloft across the U.S., a short-wave trough is forecast to shift eastward out of the northwestern U.S. across the Great Basin and northern Intermountain region. Quasigeostrophic ascent associated with this feature will support scattered showers, with a few lightning flashes possible -- particularly across favored high-terrain areas of northern Utah and surrounding areas. The advance of the aforementioned upper system will support eastward progression of a weak/associated surface low. Late in the period, the low should emerge into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, farther south, a persistent baroclinic zone will remain draped from Oklahoma to the Carolinas through the period. While isolated showers will be possible in the vicinity of this front, weak instability should preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Goss.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley, mainly this morning and later in the afternoon to early evening. ...Southern Appalachians and TN Valley... Multiple rounds of severe potential are apparent, yielding expansion in all directions of the level 1-MRGL risk and the inclusion of tornado/hail highlights. Initial activity should be ongoing at 12Z, centered on the southeast KY, southern WV, and far southwest VA vicinity. An early morning supercell or two may linger into mid-morning, but the bulk of convective activity is expected to be in a weakening phase. Large-scale ascent and low-level shear will diminish as the low-amplitude shortwave impulse quickly shifts away over the Lower Great Lakes/northern Appalachians. This timing will be coincident with the nadir of warm-moist sector instability. A separate round of thunderstorm development is anticipated by afternoon across a portion of the Mid-South, mainly to the cool side of a slowing west/east-oriented surface front. While initial activity should be elevated within the pronounced baroclinic zone, convection should develop into the northern portion of the warm-moist sector in parts of TN to southeast KY. Despite the lack of more prominent large-scale ascent, a fast, nearly unidirectional zonal flow regime will yield mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. This should foster potential for an organized cluster to develop, centered on the southern KY/northern TN vicinity by late afternoon. Weak low-level lapse rates and more muted hodograph curvature relative to this morning may preclude a greater severe threat. But localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail may accompany this convection as far east as western NC by early evening. ..Grams/Lyons.. 02/06/2025 Read more