Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night. ...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley... After collaboration with WFOs BMX/JAN/MOB, an upgrade to a level 5-HIGH risk appears warranted for the most likely corridor of potentially violent tornadoes, peaking tomorrow afternoon and evening. A broader level 4-MDT risk has been expanded somewhat eastward for the nocturnal significant tornado threat. An intense mid-level jet, 100-110 kts at 500 mb, will eject through the basal portion of a broad southern Great Plains shortwave trough. This will induce secondary cyclogenesis along an initially slow-moving baroclinic zone from the Ark-La-Tex to the central Great Lakes. Another day of air mass modification ahead of this wave will yield a pronounced plume of rich northwest Gulf moisture that should be pristine across southeast LA and southern MS through late morning. As mid-level height falls overspread the diurnally warming air mass, increasing convective development is expected along the deepening baroclinic zone, as well as residual outflows to its northeast in the TN Valley from prior late D1 convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates atop the richly moist boundary layer will yield at least moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg across eastern LA into central MS. Vertically veering wind profiles with strong anvil-level divergence amid the favorable instability should support robust updrafts and intense supercells. Low-level shear will strengthen midday through the afternoon, yielding potential for a tornado outbreak. The most probable convective corridor will be along the effective outflow boundary across central/northern parts of MS into north AL and south TN. Along and south of this will be the most favored corridor for long-tracked, discrete supercells. These will likely develop within north/south-oriented confluence bands as increasing large-scale ascent becomes coincident with the peak heating cycle. A volatile combination of kinematic/thermodynamic parameters will support potential for long-track, EF3+ tornadoes. The overall spatial extent of this threat will be modulated by the degree of boundary-layer heating within the mid to upper 60s dew point plume, along with where exactly the large-scale outflow boundary sets up from late D1/early D2. Significant tornado potential, along with very large hail and destructive damaging wind gusts, should persist into Saturday night. Greater potential for a broken to linear band of thunderstorms is anticipated by this time, but wind profiles will still strongly favor supercells. As such, a mix of all three hazards may continue with sig severe hail potential favored south and sig severe wind favored north as the convective band spreads towards the southern Appalachians and the northeast Gulf Coast. ...OH Valley to central Great Lakes... Forecast confidence remains low with regard to severe potential north of the TN Valley. Guidance continues to differ on the degree of diurnal destabilization in the wake of the D1 shortwave trough and deep cyclone tracking into northern Ontario. With increasingly widespread Mid/Deep South to TN Valley thunderstorms during the day Saturday, the northward extent of appreciable surface-based instability appears highly questionable within a predominately meridional deep-layer wind profile. Given the fast flow regime though, even weak convection late afternoon through Saturday night will pose some risk for locally strong gusts and a tornado. ..Grams.. 03/14/2025 Read more

MD 0169 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS....WESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0169 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of eastern Kansas....western Missouri...northwestern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141525Z - 141730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An initial round of convective development is expected to remain sub-severe as it spreads northeastward across parts of western Missouri and northwestern Arkansas through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has initiated during the past few hours across parts of southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma. This is occurring within the evolving warm sector of broad and deep, occluding cyclone over central portions of the high plains. However, this appears to be rooted above a stable boundary-layer, where a narrow corridor of modest lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is ongoing, in advance of the leading edge of an initial surge of mid-level cooling overspreading the central and southern Great Plains. Based within, just above, steeper lapse rates associated with a plume of elevated mix-layer air, CAPE is weak and inhibition remains otherwise sizable. Some small hail might be possible in the more vigorous cells. However, the risk for severe weather is expected to remain minimal with this initial convection, and it remains unclear how long it will persist. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 03/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38129553 39279549 39629400 38609240 37579261 36179295 35469419 36739448 38129553 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 AM CDT FRI MAR 14 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Illinois Missouri Iowa Western Kentucky Western Indiana Western Tennessee Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Western Alabama Northeast Louisiana Eastern Nebraska * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley and portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-South. Numerous tornadoes, several of which could be strong, widespread severe gusts ranging from 60 to 100 mph, and scattered large hail up to baseball size all appear likely. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI... ---Wildfire outbreak appears likely across the southern Plains today.--- Extreme fire weather conditions are well underway across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma as of 1630z. Infrared satellite and hot spot detection shows several new fires developing over the last couple of hours. Peak gusts up to 70-80 mph have been observed across the Texas Panhandle, with minimum relative humidity dropping into the teens. In addition, a few dry thunderstorms were observed across northeastern Oklahoma earlier this morning. No major changes were made the D1 Fire Outlook, with Extremely Critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of the southern Plains from far eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northeastward across Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas. Outside of this, a broad area of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Use extreme caution in these areas obeying all local fire restrictions and avoiding any activity that produces open flames or sparks. An Elevated delineation was added across portions of the Ohio Valley in Ohio and West Virginia. Ahead of the approaching low pressure system, relative humidity around 20-25% will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph (locally higher). This may extend into some localized areas of the Blue Ridge Mountains and eastern Tennessee, though this remains too isolated to include areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 03/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0106 AM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A wildfire outbreak appears likely today across the southern Plains as extremely critical fire weather conditions spread from the TX Panhandle and Rolling Hills Country into much of OK and southeast KS. ...Southern Plains... Lee cyclogenesis is well underway across the central High Plains with steady pressure falls of about 15 mb over the past 12 hour observed at several stations. Regional VWPs across the Plains/High Plains show low-level winds strengthening with 50-knot flow already observed within the lowest kilometer, indicative of a robust low-level mass response ahead of a potent upper trough. These winds are expected to strengthen further over the next 12 hours as the surface low continues to deepen and the mid-level jet streak overspreads the southern Plains through the morning/early-afternoon. Latest forecast guidance shows very good agreement in the development of critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions as early as 12-14 UTC across eastern NM into the Permian Basin/Rolling Plains as the strong low-level winds quickly mix to the surface. 30-40 mph sustained winds are expected to spread east into northern TX and OK through late morning/early afternoon and southeast KS by mid-afternoon. Consensus among deterministic guidance is that frequent gusts between 50-70 mph are likely under the mid-level jet streak with occasional gusts upwards of 80 mph possible along/off the Caprock in western TX. 00 UTC Friday observed soundings across western TX/southwest KS sampled a very dry boundary layer with 0-1 km mean RH around 15%. Despite an influx of slightly cooler air, the combination of full insolation, dry air advection, and deep boundary-layer mixing will promote widespread 10-15% RH values. Drier deterministic solutions hint that RH reductions into the single digits are possible - especially across the Rolling Plains of northwest TX. Latest fuel guidance suggests that ERCs are regionally highest across this area with a swath of drying fuels extending northeastward into OK and the KS/MO/AR/OK quad-state region where wildfire activity has recently been noted. This combination of extremely strong winds, critically low RH, and receptive fuels across a large swath of the southern Plains is culminating in an anomalously high-end fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough will promote steepening lapse rates and eventual convective initiation across northeast OK/KS/MO through the early afternoon hours. Low precipitable water content and very fast (50-60 knot) storm motions of the initial storms will limit rainfall amounts for any given location and support dry lighting strikes across a landscape with a history of fire activity over the past few days. Consequently, lightning starts are possible ahead of the onset of critical/extremely critical fire weather conditions. ...Midwest... Gradient winds are expected to increase to around 20-25 mph through the day ahead of the deepening surface low in the Plains. Despite increasing moisture through the day, daytime heating should promote RH values into the 20-30% range across a broad region. Although ERCs are not anomalously high for mid-March, several days of minimal rainfall has allowed drying of finer fuels that should support a wind-driven threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more