Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more