Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms might occur over parts of the northern Plains on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move eastward toward Ontario and Hudson Bay on Friday, with an upper high building over the central Plains. Moderate westerlies aloft over the northern Plains will persist well south of the upper trough, though gradual warming is forecast. Meanwhile, a weak midlevel trough should remain over pats of the Great Basin, providing cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across northern MN and into SD, and will likely decelerate as the upper wave moves farther away. A surface low/trough will extend from southeast MT across western SD and NE during the afternoon, with backed surface winds maintaining low-level moisture across the mid MO Valley and toward the Black Hills. Although large-scale ascent will be minimal given the upper ridging, strong heating over the high Plains will yield isolated high-based storms initially. Some storms may pose a wind and hail risk from the Black Hills region eastward near the stalled frontal zone. Predictability is fairly low for potential farther east toward MN/IA, however, the air mass will remain unstable, and persistent low-level warm advection could fuel an MCS with gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms might occur over parts of the northern Plains on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move eastward toward Ontario and Hudson Bay on Friday, with an upper high building over the central Plains. Moderate westerlies aloft over the northern Plains will persist well south of the upper trough, though gradual warming is forecast. Meanwhile, a weak midlevel trough should remain over pats of the Great Basin, providing cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across northern MN and into SD, and will likely decelerate as the upper wave moves farther away. A surface low/trough will extend from southeast MT across western SD and NE during the afternoon, with backed surface winds maintaining low-level moisture across the mid MO Valley and toward the Black Hills. Although large-scale ascent will be minimal given the upper ridging, strong heating over the high Plains will yield isolated high-based storms initially. Some storms may pose a wind and hail risk from the Black Hills region eastward near the stalled frontal zone. Predictability is fairly low for potential farther east toward MN/IA, however, the air mass will remain unstable, and persistent low-level warm advection could fuel an MCS with gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms might occur over parts of the northern Plains on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move eastward toward Ontario and Hudson Bay on Friday, with an upper high building over the central Plains. Moderate westerlies aloft over the northern Plains will persist well south of the upper trough, though gradual warming is forecast. Meanwhile, a weak midlevel trough should remain over pats of the Great Basin, providing cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across northern MN and into SD, and will likely decelerate as the upper wave moves farther away. A surface low/trough will extend from southeast MT across western SD and NE during the afternoon, with backed surface winds maintaining low-level moisture across the mid MO Valley and toward the Black Hills. Although large-scale ascent will be minimal given the upper ridging, strong heating over the high Plains will yield isolated high-based storms initially. Some storms may pose a wind and hail risk from the Black Hills region eastward near the stalled frontal zone. Predictability is fairly low for potential farther east toward MN/IA, however, the air mass will remain unstable, and persistent low-level warm advection could fuel an MCS with gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms might occur over parts of the northern Plains on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move eastward toward Ontario and Hudson Bay on Friday, with an upper high building over the central Plains. Moderate westerlies aloft over the northern Plains will persist well south of the upper trough, though gradual warming is forecast. Meanwhile, a weak midlevel trough should remain over pats of the Great Basin, providing cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across northern MN and into SD, and will likely decelerate as the upper wave moves farther away. A surface low/trough will extend from southeast MT across western SD and NE during the afternoon, with backed surface winds maintaining low-level moisture across the mid MO Valley and toward the Black Hills. Although large-scale ascent will be minimal given the upper ridging, strong heating over the high Plains will yield isolated high-based storms initially. Some storms may pose a wind and hail risk from the Black Hills region eastward near the stalled frontal zone. Predictability is fairly low for potential farther east toward MN/IA, however, the air mass will remain unstable, and persistent low-level warm advection could fuel an MCS with gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... At least isolated severe storms might occur over parts of the northern Plains on Friday. ...Discussion... An upper trough will move eastward toward Ontario and Hudson Bay on Friday, with an upper high building over the central Plains. Moderate westerlies aloft over the northern Plains will persist well south of the upper trough, though gradual warming is forecast. Meanwhile, a weak midlevel trough should remain over pats of the Great Basin, providing cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a cold front will push eastward across northern MN and into SD, and will likely decelerate as the upper wave moves farther away. A surface low/trough will extend from southeast MT across western SD and NE during the afternoon, with backed surface winds maintaining low-level moisture across the mid MO Valley and toward the Black Hills. Although large-scale ascent will be minimal given the upper ridging, strong heating over the high Plains will yield isolated high-based storms initially. Some storms may pose a wind and hail risk from the Black Hills region eastward near the stalled frontal zone. Predictability is fairly low for potential farther east toward MN/IA, however, the air mass will remain unstable, and persistent low-level warm advection could fuel an MCS with gusty winds. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing is expected to persist along the West Coast through Thursday, which will maintain southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada. This will maintain a downslope flow regime across NV and aid in advecting hot/dry air northeastward into adjacent portions of UT and northwest AZ. Although winds won't be as strong as today (Wednesday), sustained winds in the mid-teens will support a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with dry fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A plume of monsoonal moisture sampled by regional 00z soundings will linger across the eastern Great Basin on Thursday. The combination of weak synoptic ascent ahead of the upper trough and orographic lift will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from northeast NV to western CO by late afternoon. An ensemble of forecast soundings show good agreement in PWAT values near/below 0.7 inches along with deeply mixed boundary layers and around 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE. This, along with a fairly strong convective signal in recent CAM guidance, lends high confidence in thunderstorm development. These thermodynamic conditions are favorable for dry thunderstorms, which will pose a threat for new lightning starts given widespread ERC values near/above the 90th percentile. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing is expected to persist along the West Coast through Thursday, which will maintain southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada. This will maintain a downslope flow regime across NV and aid in advecting hot/dry air northeastward into adjacent portions of UT and northwest AZ. Although winds won't be as strong as today (Wednesday), sustained winds in the mid-teens will support a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with dry fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A plume of monsoonal moisture sampled by regional 00z soundings will linger across the eastern Great Basin on Thursday. The combination of weak synoptic ascent ahead of the upper trough and orographic lift will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from northeast NV to western CO by late afternoon. An ensemble of forecast soundings show good agreement in PWAT values near/below 0.7 inches along with deeply mixed boundary layers and around 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE. This, along with a fairly strong convective signal in recent CAM guidance, lends high confidence in thunderstorm development. These thermodynamic conditions are favorable for dry thunderstorms, which will pose a threat for new lightning starts given widespread ERC values near/above the 90th percentile. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing is expected to persist along the West Coast through Thursday, which will maintain southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada. This will maintain a downslope flow regime across NV and aid in advecting hot/dry air northeastward into adjacent portions of UT and northwest AZ. Although winds won't be as strong as today (Wednesday), sustained winds in the mid-teens will support a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with dry fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A plume of monsoonal moisture sampled by regional 00z soundings will linger across the eastern Great Basin on Thursday. The combination of weak synoptic ascent ahead of the upper trough and orographic lift will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from northeast NV to western CO by late afternoon. An ensemble of forecast soundings show good agreement in PWAT values near/below 0.7 inches along with deeply mixed boundary layers and around 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE. This, along with a fairly strong convective signal in recent CAM guidance, lends high confidence in thunderstorm development. These thermodynamic conditions are favorable for dry thunderstorms, which will pose a threat for new lightning starts given widespread ERC values near/above the 90th percentile. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing is expected to persist along the West Coast through Thursday, which will maintain southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada. This will maintain a downslope flow regime across NV and aid in advecting hot/dry air northeastward into adjacent portions of UT and northwest AZ. Although winds won't be as strong as today (Wednesday), sustained winds in the mid-teens will support a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with dry fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A plume of monsoonal moisture sampled by regional 00z soundings will linger across the eastern Great Basin on Thursday. The combination of weak synoptic ascent ahead of the upper trough and orographic lift will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from northeast NV to western CO by late afternoon. An ensemble of forecast soundings show good agreement in PWAT values near/below 0.7 inches along with deeply mixed boundary layers and around 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE. This, along with a fairly strong convective signal in recent CAM guidance, lends high confidence in thunderstorm development. These thermodynamic conditions are favorable for dry thunderstorms, which will pose a threat for new lightning starts given widespread ERC values near/above the 90th percentile. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing is expected to persist along the West Coast through Thursday, which will maintain southwesterly flow over the southern to central Sierra Nevada. This will maintain a downslope flow regime across NV and aid in advecting hot/dry air northeastward into adjacent portions of UT and northwest AZ. Although winds won't be as strong as today (Wednesday), sustained winds in the mid-teens will support a broad swath of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with dry fuels. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A plume of monsoonal moisture sampled by regional 00z soundings will linger across the eastern Great Basin on Thursday. The combination of weak synoptic ascent ahead of the upper trough and orographic lift will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from northeast NV to western CO by late afternoon. An ensemble of forecast soundings show good agreement in PWAT values near/below 0.7 inches along with deeply mixed boundary layers and around 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE. This, along with a fairly strong convective signal in recent CAM guidance, lends high confidence in thunderstorm development. These thermodynamic conditions are favorable for dry thunderstorms, which will pose a threat for new lightning starts given widespread ERC values near/above the 90th percentile. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a large swath of the Intermountain West. An upper wave currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is expected to progress quickly to the High Plains over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, ascent ahead of the wave will induce surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. The low-level mass response should promote widespread sustained winds in the 15-25 mph range from the lee of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada into portions of WY. Deep mixing should promote frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. Transient swaths of 20+ mph winds will be possible across much of the region, but confidence in sustained critical wind speeds remains highest through the Snake River Plain in southern/eastern ID where flow will be orographically enhanced. 06 UTC surface observations across the Great Basin show very dry conditions already in place, and diurnal heating of this dry air mass will support widespread RH reductions into the 5-15% range. Recent fuel guidance shows widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile across much of the region, which should support the fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few early-morning thunderstorms are noted in GOES GLM data between 04-05 UTC across portions of NV (likely associated with ascent ahead of a weak leading upper perturbation), though more substantial thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon and evening across the Great Basin. 00z soundings, water-vapor imagery, and the recent convection all confirm that a plume of mid-level moisture is in place ahead of the primary upper trough. As ascent and diurnal heating increase through the afternoon, a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from far eastern CA to eastern ID/western WY. Very deep and well-mixed boundary layers, coupled with storm motions near 20 knots, will promote mainly dry thunderstorms. With receptive fuels in place, this convection will pose a threat for new fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a large swath of the Intermountain West. An upper wave currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is expected to progress quickly to the High Plains over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, ascent ahead of the wave will induce surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. The low-level mass response should promote widespread sustained winds in the 15-25 mph range from the lee of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada into portions of WY. Deep mixing should promote frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. Transient swaths of 20+ mph winds will be possible across much of the region, but confidence in sustained critical wind speeds remains highest through the Snake River Plain in southern/eastern ID where flow will be orographically enhanced. 06 UTC surface observations across the Great Basin show very dry conditions already in place, and diurnal heating of this dry air mass will support widespread RH reductions into the 5-15% range. Recent fuel guidance shows widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile across much of the region, which should support the fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few early-morning thunderstorms are noted in GOES GLM data between 04-05 UTC across portions of NV (likely associated with ascent ahead of a weak leading upper perturbation), though more substantial thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon and evening across the Great Basin. 00z soundings, water-vapor imagery, and the recent convection all confirm that a plume of mid-level moisture is in place ahead of the primary upper trough. As ascent and diurnal heating increase through the afternoon, a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from far eastern CA to eastern ID/western WY. Very deep and well-mixed boundary layers, coupled with storm motions near 20 knots, will promote mainly dry thunderstorms. With receptive fuels in place, this convection will pose a threat for new fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a large swath of the Intermountain West. An upper wave currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is expected to progress quickly to the High Plains over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, ascent ahead of the wave will induce surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. The low-level mass response should promote widespread sustained winds in the 15-25 mph range from the lee of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada into portions of WY. Deep mixing should promote frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. Transient swaths of 20+ mph winds will be possible across much of the region, but confidence in sustained critical wind speeds remains highest through the Snake River Plain in southern/eastern ID where flow will be orographically enhanced. 06 UTC surface observations across the Great Basin show very dry conditions already in place, and diurnal heating of this dry air mass will support widespread RH reductions into the 5-15% range. Recent fuel guidance shows widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile across much of the region, which should support the fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few early-morning thunderstorms are noted in GOES GLM data between 04-05 UTC across portions of NV (likely associated with ascent ahead of a weak leading upper perturbation), though more substantial thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon and evening across the Great Basin. 00z soundings, water-vapor imagery, and the recent convection all confirm that a plume of mid-level moisture is in place ahead of the primary upper trough. As ascent and diurnal heating increase through the afternoon, a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from far eastern CA to eastern ID/western WY. Very deep and well-mixed boundary layers, coupled with storm motions near 20 knots, will promote mainly dry thunderstorms. With receptive fuels in place, this convection will pose a threat for new fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a large swath of the Intermountain West. An upper wave currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is expected to progress quickly to the High Plains over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, ascent ahead of the wave will induce surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. The low-level mass response should promote widespread sustained winds in the 15-25 mph range from the lee of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada into portions of WY. Deep mixing should promote frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. Transient swaths of 20+ mph winds will be possible across much of the region, but confidence in sustained critical wind speeds remains highest through the Snake River Plain in southern/eastern ID where flow will be orographically enhanced. 06 UTC surface observations across the Great Basin show very dry conditions already in place, and diurnal heating of this dry air mass will support widespread RH reductions into the 5-15% range. Recent fuel guidance shows widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile across much of the region, which should support the fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few early-morning thunderstorms are noted in GOES GLM data between 04-05 UTC across portions of NV (likely associated with ascent ahead of a weak leading upper perturbation), though more substantial thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon and evening across the Great Basin. 00z soundings, water-vapor imagery, and the recent convection all confirm that a plume of mid-level moisture is in place ahead of the primary upper trough. As ascent and diurnal heating increase through the afternoon, a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from far eastern CA to eastern ID/western WY. Very deep and well-mixed boundary layers, coupled with storm motions near 20 knots, will promote mainly dry thunderstorms. With receptive fuels in place, this convection will pose a threat for new fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... Widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a large swath of the Intermountain West. An upper wave currently approaching the Pacific Northwest is expected to progress quickly to the High Plains over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, ascent ahead of the wave will induce surface pressure falls across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. The low-level mass response should promote widespread sustained winds in the 15-25 mph range from the lee of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada into portions of WY. Deep mixing should promote frequent gusts between 25-30 mph. Transient swaths of 20+ mph winds will be possible across much of the region, but confidence in sustained critical wind speeds remains highest through the Snake River Plain in southern/eastern ID where flow will be orographically enhanced. 06 UTC surface observations across the Great Basin show very dry conditions already in place, and diurnal heating of this dry air mass will support widespread RH reductions into the 5-15% range. Recent fuel guidance shows widespread ERCs above the 90th percentile across much of the region, which should support the fire weather threat. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A few early-morning thunderstorms are noted in GOES GLM data between 04-05 UTC across portions of NV (likely associated with ascent ahead of a weak leading upper perturbation), though more substantial thunderstorm activity is expected later this afternoon and evening across the Great Basin. 00z soundings, water-vapor imagery, and the recent convection all confirm that a plume of mid-level moisture is in place ahead of the primary upper trough. As ascent and diurnal heating increase through the afternoon, a swath of isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop from far eastern CA to eastern ID/western WY. Very deep and well-mixed boundary layers, coupled with storm motions near 20 knots, will promote mainly dry thunderstorms. With receptive fuels in place, this convection will pose a threat for new fire starts. ..Moore.. 08/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South Dakota into western Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt. At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet increases to 30-40 kt. Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur. Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with brief hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South Dakota into western Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt. At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet increases to 30-40 kt. Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur. Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with brief hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South Dakota into western Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt. At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet increases to 30-40 kt. Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur. Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with brief hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South Dakota into western Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt. At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet increases to 30-40 kt. Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur. Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with brief hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing hail and wind are possible mainly from eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms may occur across parts of South Dakota into western Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move eastward across the northern Plains on Thursday, with the primary upper low well north into Canada. The southern periphery of this wave will move across ND and northern MN late day and overnight, with minimal cooling aloft and increasing mid to upper level winds of 40-50 kt. At the surface, a trough will extend from central ND into western SD during the afternoon, where a surface low will exist within the warm plume. Southeast winds will bring moisture northward ahead of the front, with moderate instability forecast. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will develop late as the upper wave approaches and low-level jet increases to 30-40 kt. Storms are likely to form near 00Z along the cold front over central/eastern ND and extending into northern SD, and progress across northwest MN during the evening. Large hail appears likely as storm mode should be cellular, but areas of severe gusts may occur. Steep lapse rates aloft and strong instability may also yield hail over 2.00" diameter. Strong heating into central SD and western NE will likely yield isolated strong to severe storms as well with brief hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/13/2025 Read more