Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will prevail across much of the central and southern CONUS through Day 5 (Monday), before more pronounced upper troughs traverse the Rockies by Days 6-8 (next Tuesday-Thursday). Over the weekend, a surface low will drift away from the southern Plains, with some lee surface troughing and associated downslope flow expected across portions of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure and an intruding cold front will also overspread much of the Plains states toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and points east this weekend into mid next week. For Days 5-6 (next Monday-Tuesday) downslope flow will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. Thereafter, a cold front will sweep across the southern Plains, with dry and windy conditions persisting across Far West Texas on Day 7 (Wednesday). Given medium-range guidance consensus in widespread dry and windy conditions meeting Elevated- to Critical-equivalent criteria, and given the lack of recent observed or forecast precipitation accumulations, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...20z Updates... Updates were made to clip the Marginal Risk to the Blue Ridge Mountains in the western Carolinas to account for where instability wanes and more stable air resides. A few thunderstorms have developed across northwestern Tennessee into southwestern Kentucky. Additional thunderstorm development is expected into Middle Tennessee/central Kentucky through the afternoon and evening. See MCD#70 for more information on this threat. ..Thornton/Hart.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...TN and vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows a surface cold front extending from northwest TN into southern KY. The air mass along and south of the front continues to slowly moisten with dewpoints now in the 60s across most of western/middle TN, and cloud cover appears to be thinning. This will lead to a zone of 1000-1500 J/kg surface-based CAPE this afternoon. Most 12z model solutions indicate scattered thunderstorms will form along the front and track east-southeastward across much of TN through the afternoon/evening. Low-level wind fields are considerably weaker than last night, suggesting the overall tornado risk has likely decreased. However, mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, weak forcing, strong westerly flow aloft, and diurnal heating suggest the risk of a few discrete rotating/bowing storms capable of hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is possible. The threat may persist after dark in east TN, but should weaken as storms move into less instability over the mountains. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... Widespread dry and windy conditions are still anticipated during the day tomorrow (Friday) for far eastern Arizona into much of New Mexico and far western Texas. Elevated and Critical highlights have been expanded to areas where the latest guidance consensus has trended drier and windier. Critical conditions (25+ mph sustained westerly winds amid 10 percent RH) are expected to be widespread along the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains into the western TX Panhandle. However, at least brief bouts of Critical conditions may be expected along the lee of Sacramento and Guadalupe mountains in southern New Mexico, as well as parts of western New Mexico, by afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 02/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Westerly mid-level flow will continue over the CONUS D2/Friday as a more prominent shortwave and attendant jet streak approach the Southwest. In response to the approach of the upper trough, a lee cyclone will intensify over the High Plains, supporting strong winds and low humidity. The persistent dry conditions, exacerbated by downslope winds and low humidity, will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Another day of dry and windy conditions is expected across parts of the Southwest and High Plains D2/Friday. As the mid-level jet and shortwave cross the Rockies, enhanced lee cyclogensis will support strong west/southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph across eastern AZ, much of NM and parts of western TX/OK. Continued warm temperatures and dry downslope trajectories will support afternoon RH values in the teens to single digits. The combination of strong westerly winds, low humidity and worsening fuels suggest widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. The most likely area for sustained critical concerns is expected across parts of the High Plains in northeastern NM and the TX Panhandle. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from low probabilities for scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level flow will begin to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and digging downstream troughing east of the Canadian Rockies. Otherwise, it appears that there will be little change across much of the contiguous U.S., with ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes maintaining an influence across much of the southern into central tier states. Within a broadly confluent, zonal regime across the northern tier, a couple of embedded short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing progressing across the Great Lakes vicinity into Northeast by late Saturday night. It appears that the evolving mid-level trough may provide support for increasingly significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by the end of the period. This is likely to be focused along a tightening baroclinic zone, near the eroding southern periphery of a seasonably cold air mass entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Initially stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic, the surface frontal zone is forecast to advance southward into the Gulf Coast states Saturday through Saturday night, in the wake of the wave. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Model differences concerning the frontal wave development, and potential boundary-layer destabilization, along the eroding shallow southern periphery of the cold air across the interior U.S. remains problematic concerning convective potential. Strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear near the frontal wave is likely to become conditionally supportive of severe weather potential, given sufficient destabilization. However, regardless of the boundary-layer modification (and the NAM may be too aggressive with the lingering shallow sharp surface-based inversion across Kentucky, east-northeast of Bowling Green into the Blue Grass by late Saturday afternoon), there does appear a general consensus that relatively warm, dry air at mid-levels may tend to suppress destabilization. At least some convection, perhaps mostly elevated near and north of the Ohio River, may become capable of producing lightning. But the risk for severe weather still appears negligible at this time. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from low probabilities for scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Ohio Valley, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S., Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid-level flow will begin to undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska and digging downstream troughing east of the Canadian Rockies. Otherwise, it appears that there will be little change across much of the contiguous U.S., with ridging centered over the subtropical latitudes maintaining an influence across much of the southern into central tier states. Within a broadly confluent, zonal regime across the northern tier, a couple of embedded short wave perturbations may consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing progressing across the Great Lakes vicinity into Northeast by late Saturday night. It appears that the evolving mid-level trough may provide support for increasingly significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the northern Mid Atlantic coast by the end of the period. This is likely to be focused along a tightening baroclinic zone, near the eroding southern periphery of a seasonably cold air mass entrenched to the east of the Rockies. Initially stalled across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley and southern Mid Atlantic, the surface frontal zone is forecast to advance southward into the Gulf Coast states Saturday through Saturday night, in the wake of the wave. ...Lower Ohio Valley... Model differences concerning the frontal wave development, and potential boundary-layer destabilization, along the eroding shallow southern periphery of the cold air across the interior U.S. remains problematic concerning convective potential. Strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear near the frontal wave is likely to become conditionally supportive of severe weather potential, given sufficient destabilization. However, regardless of the boundary-layer modification (and the NAM may be too aggressive with the lingering shallow sharp surface-based inversion across Kentucky, east-northeast of Bowling Green into the Blue Grass by late Saturday afternoon), there does appear a general consensus that relatively warm, dry air at mid-levels may tend to suppress destabilization. At least some convection, perhaps mostly elevated near and north of the Ohio River, may become capable of producing lightning. But the risk for severe weather still appears negligible at this time. ..Kerr.. 02/06/2025 Read more