Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible mainly over West Texas and western Kansas this evening. Large hail and localized wind damage is likely. ...Central and southern Plains... Scattered severe storms persist this evening across much of West TX and western KS, with a combination of splitting cells and clusters. These storms will likely persist through the evening due to little if any capping, with only a gradual consolidation/pruning in coverage. The most unstable air will remain from central into northwest TX, with isolated significant hail threat. In addition to large hail, merging storms and aggregate outflows may locally produce wind damage. Winds just off the surface will increase in speed tonight, which will maintain theta-e advection and increase low-level shear a bit as well. For more information see mesoscale discussions 534 and 535. ..Jewell.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible mainly over West Texas and western Kansas this evening. Large hail and localized wind damage is likely. ...Central and southern Plains... Scattered severe storms persist this evening across much of West TX and western KS, with a combination of splitting cells and clusters. These storms will likely persist through the evening due to little if any capping, with only a gradual consolidation/pruning in coverage. The most unstable air will remain from central into northwest TX, with isolated significant hail threat. In addition to large hail, merging storms and aggregate outflows may locally produce wind damage. Winds just off the surface will increase in speed tonight, which will maintain theta-e advection and increase low-level shear a bit as well. For more information see mesoscale discussions 534 and 535. ..Jewell.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible mainly over West Texas and western Kansas this evening. Large hail and localized wind damage is likely. ...Central and southern Plains... Scattered severe storms persist this evening across much of West TX and western KS, with a combination of splitting cells and clusters. These storms will likely persist through the evening due to little if any capping, with only a gradual consolidation/pruning in coverage. The most unstable air will remain from central into northwest TX, with isolated significant hail threat. In addition to large hail, merging storms and aggregate outflows may locally produce wind damage. Winds just off the surface will increase in speed tonight, which will maintain theta-e advection and increase low-level shear a bit as well. For more information see mesoscale discussions 534 and 535. ..Jewell.. 04/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible mainly over West Texas and western Kansas this evening. Large hail and localized wind damage is likely. ...Central and southern Plains... Scattered severe storms persist this evening across much of West TX and western KS, with a combination of splitting cells and clusters. These storms will likely persist through the evening due to little if any capping, with only a gradual consolidation/pruning in coverage. The most unstable air will remain from central into northwest TX, with isolated significant hail threat. In addition to large hail, merging storms and aggregate outflows may locally produce wind damage. Winds just off the surface will increase in speed tonight, which will maintain theta-e advection and increase low-level shear a bit as well. For more information see mesoscale discussions 534 and 535. ..Jewell.. 04/24/2025 Read more

MD 0533 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... FOR TX TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...TX Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin into extreme southeast NM Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162... Valid 232255Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing as of 2245 UTC across the TX Trans-Pecos region. The most intense ongoing storm is a left-moving supercell moving northward to the west of Wink, TX. This cell may persist into southeast NM, as it moves along a north-south oriented instability gradient into early evening. Favorable lapse rates/buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will result in a threat of large hail for as long as this cell persists, with a conditional threat of hail larger than golf balls. Strong to severe outflow gusts will also be possible within the relatively well-mixed environment. Farther south, convection has struggled to maintain severe intensity, with somewhat cooler temperatures and stronger MLCINH noted in the vicinity of the cell west of Fort Stockton. However, deep-layer shear increases with southward extent due to the presence of a subtropical jet, and the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells and an attendant severe hail/wind threat if any updrafts can be sustained. Also, locally backed flow and somewhat richer low-level moisture could support some tornado potential if any supercell can be sustained in the region near/south of Fort Stockton. ..Dean.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 30050448 31720379 32840349 32880274 31270247 29830254 29200274 29040314 29080367 29240400 29520440 30050448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533 ..DEAN..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-103-135-301-329-371-389-443-461-475-495-240040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0163 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0163 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-045-059-139-240040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER ELLIS HARPER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-169-179-189- 191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-345-357-359- 369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-240040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON KENT KING LAMB LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE Read more

MD 0533 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162... FOR TX TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0555 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...TX Trans-Pecos/Permian Basin into extreme southeast NM Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162... Valid 232255Z - 240030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 162 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may persist through the evening. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing as of 2245 UTC across the TX Trans-Pecos region. The most intense ongoing storm is a left-moving supercell moving northward to the west of Wink, TX. This cell may persist into southeast NM, as it moves along a north-south oriented instability gradient into early evening. Favorable lapse rates/buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will result in a threat of large hail for as long as this cell persists, with a conditional threat of hail larger than golf balls. Strong to severe outflow gusts will also be possible within the relatively well-mixed environment. Farther south, convection has struggled to maintain severe intensity, with somewhat cooler temperatures and stronger MLCINH noted in the vicinity of the cell west of Fort Stockton. However, deep-layer shear increases with southward extent due to the presence of a subtropical jet, and the environment remains conditionally favorable for supercells and an attendant severe hail/wind threat if any updrafts can be sustained. Also, locally backed flow and somewhat richer low-level moisture could support some tornado potential if any supercell can be sustained in the region near/south of Fort Stockton. ..Dean.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 30050448 31720379 32840349 32880274 31270247 29830254 29200274 29040314 29080367 29240400 29520440 30050448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0532 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...far southeast Colorado into much of western Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163... Valid 232230Z - 240000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 163. Large hail remain the primary immediate threat. However, severe gusts may become a bigger concern later as storms merge. A tornado remains possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have developed across portions of northwestern Kansas, some with a history of producing hail over 2 inches in diameter, as well as occasional bouts of low-level rotation. Given 8.5+ C/km mid-level lapse rates and locally stronger deep-layer shear preceding these supercell structures, large hail (including 2+ inch stones) should remain the primary hazard over the next couple of hours. However, these storms are rapidly increasing in coverage and are showing signs of merging. Should mergers occur, a cold-pool-driven MCS structure may materialize with a severe gust threat and perhaps some lingering concerns for hail. Several of these supercells will generate outflow boundaries, and if a persistent updraft anchors to any of these boundaries with unimpeded inflow, a tornado may also occur. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 37420322 38490231 39350144 39660045 39209994 38659979 37749996 37280037 37120112 37010164 37090269 37420322 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0530 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX/OK PANHANDLES...TX SOUTH PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN...EXTREME EASTERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0530 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandles...TX South Plains/Permian Basin...extreme eastern NM Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232152Z - 232345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible into this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Storm initiation appears to be underway as of 2130 UTC across the northern TX into the OK Panhandle, with increasing cumulus noted farther south into the western TX Panhandle and far eastern NM. Strong heating beneath steep midlevel lapse rates has resulted in the development of moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE generally in the 1500-2500 J/kg range per modified soundings and recent objective mesoanalyses. While large-scale ascent is generally modest, continued heating within the uncapped environment will support isolated to widely scattered storm development from late this afternoon into the evening. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong, but some veering of flow with height is supporting 25-35 kt of effective shear, sufficient for development of organized multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather strong upper-level flow will result in hail potential with any sustained storms across the region. Strong to severe outflow gusts will also be possible within the steep lapse-rate environment. Some increase in low-level shear/SRH is expected this evening across the TX/OK Panhandles, which could eventually support a conditional tornado threat if any supercells can persist across that area. Watch issuance is possible if observational trends support development of multiple sustained severe storms into this evening. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32780297 34100317 34820322 35190317 35650306 36250272 36740224 36890151 36950088 36940061 35820040 33890032 32840053 32650081 32300165 32160247 32240273 32780297 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0531 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into western Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232202Z - 232330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Multiple storms, may continue to support occasional instances of severe wind or hail this evening. Since the severe threat will likely remain isolated, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and transient supercells are in progress across northeastern Kansas, and are poised to keep tracking southeast amid an unstable airmass, characterized by over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear is weak, with 21Z mesoanalysis depicting less than 25 kts of effective bulk shear, and TWX/EAX VADS showing short hodographs with little low-level structure. KTWX regional radar and MRMS mosaic radar imagery suggests that the strongest storms are upscale growing into a small MCS. If this morphology continues, a brief uptick in strong to potentially severe gusts will ensue. Otherwise, severe hail may accompany the stronger preceding cells that manage to intensify. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39209645 39579607 39849527 39609416 39159372 38389394 37949429 37869483 37899553 38089611 38269629 39209645 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0529 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0529 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0443 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Nebraska into central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232143Z - 232315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail and gusts may accompany multicells and left-splitting supercells into the evening hours. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of multicells, with a history of producing marginally severe hail/gusts, continues to propagate northward into a buoyant airmass. Deep-layer tropospheric lapse rates exceed 8 C/km amid 35+ kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Regional VADs ahead of the ongoing storms depict relatively straight hodographs, suggesting that multicells and perhaps splitting supercells will remain the dominant mode of convection, with severe wind/hail the main threats. Given weak forcing for ascent, storm maintenance/rejuvenation will rely on cold pool propagation. Nonetheless, several more hours of adequate surface heating should allow for the propagation of stronger cells into at least central IA. Given the expected isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 40809674 41799627 42289554 42719395 42629281 42039261 41269280 40729353 40419465 40369551 40439626 40809674 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 164 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 164 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC007-045-059-139-240040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER ELLIS HARPER TEXAS TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-101-107-117-125-129-153-169-179-189- 191-195-205-211-219-233-263-269-279-295-303-305-341-345-357-359- 369-375-381-393-421-433-437-445-483-240040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE CROSBY DEAF SMITH DICKENS DONLEY FLOYD GARZA GRAY HALE HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON KENT KING LAMB LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK LYNN MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE Read more

WW 164 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 232230Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Oklahoma Texas Panhandle and South Plains * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Relatively isolated severe storms should develop through early/mid-evening, particularly across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, but potentially also across the Texas South Plains. These storms may reach other parts of western Oklahoma later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 55 miles south southeast of Lubbock TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 162...WW 163... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0533 ..DEAN..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-103-135-301-329-371-389-443-461-475-495-240040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 162 SEVERE TSTM TX 232025Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify this afternoon over the Davis Mountains and along a dryline and spread northeastward across the watch area. The strongest storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northeast of Wink TX to 40 miles southwest of Dryden TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0164 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0164 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0162 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 162 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..04/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 162 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC043-103-135-301-329-371-389-443-461-475-495-232340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREWSTER CRANE ECTOR LOVING MIDLAND PECOS REEVES TERRELL UPTON WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WRN KS...SERN CO...OK PNHDL
Mesoscale Discussion 0528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn KS...sern CO...OK Pnhdl Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 231939Z - 232215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through the 4-6 PM CDT time frame, including the potential for supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes in a focused area near/southeast of Goodland. DISCUSSION...With daytime heating and mixing, the boundary-layer within surface troughing across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through western Kansas continues to deepen and destabilize. It now appears generally characterized by surface temperature/dew point spreads in excess of 30 F, with CAPE increasing to 1500-2000+ J/kg. Inhibition is in the process of weakening, and deepening high-based convection is now evident within the axis of stronger destabilization. With further insolation, the initiation of thunderstorms appears increasingly probable, some of which may eventually be accompanied by small hail and localized strong downbursts. Of greater concern is the potential for convective development where better low-level moisture, on the western periphery of outflow associated with persistent ongoing convection across central Kansas, intersects the axis of stronger heating. This appears focused near a weak developing cyclonic circulation southeast of Goodland, where shear associated with clockwise turning of low-level wind fields with height, beneath a belt of 30 kt westerly flow around 500 mb, is likely sufficient for supercells. This is where potential for large hail appears maximized, and near-surface CAPE/upward vertical accelerations may promote the potential for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 39490179 39490081 38790011 38070052 36930225 37220375 38350211 38920164 39490179 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more