Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z Dry return flow across the Mid-Atlantic will continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold front expected to move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest surface observations and model guidance shows primary fire weather concern concentrated over a corridor from New Jersey into Connecticut where relative humidity as low as 25 percent combined with winds up to 20 mph will bring Elevated fire weather conditions through this afternoon. In addition, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are still expected across southern New Mexico into far western Texas and into the Big Bend area. Only minor trimming of Elevated highlights was needed east of the Sacramento Mountains in southeastern New Mexico as a post-frontal air mass mitigates fire weather concerns today for this area. ..Williams.. 04/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a slow-moving large-scale trough over the Four Corners, moderate-strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread a deeply mixed post-dryline air mass over southern NM into the Trans-Pecos. A modest pressure gradient and enhanced winds through the boundary layer will yield 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) and 5-10 percent RH during the afternoon. Given dry fuels, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther east, dry/breezy return flow will develop across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states. With modestly receptive fuels across the area, 10-15 mph southerly surface winds and around 30 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL 1115 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF WEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK... AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains, mainly during this afternoon to evening. Corridors of greater threat are expected over the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes and in parts of west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through central Ontario and the adjacent Upper Midwest, and a mature cyclone centered over the central UT/AZ border. The northern shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada today while also transitioning to a more negative tilt. The UT/AZ cyclone is expected to progress southeastward across AZ and into western NM as an embedded shortwave trough moves through its base across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Surface analysis places a low over northern Lake Michigan, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low into central OK where another, weaker surface low exists. The front continues westward from this second low across the TX Panhandle and through central NM. The northern low is forecast to progress eastward across eastern Canada, moving just ahead of its parent shortwave trough, ending the period over the Canadian Maritimes. The associated cold front will also push eastward moving through the OH and TN Valleys, and much of the Northeast. Southern/western portion of the front will make limited southerly/southeasterly progress, with its position becoming more regulated by repeated convective outflow throughout the day. Numerous thunderstorms, some severe, are anticipated along the eastward progressing cold front from the OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as farther southwest across the southern Plains near the stalled boundary. ...Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes... Ongoing clusters of thunderstorms across IL extend through OH. It seems probable that this cluster will reintensify as it interacts with the destabilizing air mass over the region. Strong low/midlevel flow will support development of organized storm clusters, along with some potential for discrete or embedded supercells. Scattered damaging winds will be possible, with some potential for swaths of more concentrated wind damage if any organized linear segments develop. The strongest low-level flow will be displaced north of the region, but 35-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer will support sufficient low-level shear for some supercell and/or line-embedded tornado threat. Isolated hail could also accompany any persistent supercell structures. ...West TX into the Ozarks... Current satellite and radar show convection from OK through the Ozarks. Model guidance suggest this activity will continue to evolve, tracking northeastward. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon both along the outflow-modulated cold front in OK and northwest TX and along the dryline in West TX as the air mass destabilizes. Strong buoyancy and shear will support supercells, particularly from west TX into southwest OK during the late afternoon where low-level convergence will be strongest. Large to very large hail will be the primary threat initially, but strong cold pools and close storm proximity should result in several clusters capable of strong to significant gusts. A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential may materialize just east of the surface low where stronger southeasterly low-level flow and higher low-level moisture may overlap. ..15_ows.. 04/29/2025 Read more