Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A building ridge setting up over the Western U.S. will bring warming temperatures and a lighter wind regime to most of the region from Day 3-5/Wednesday-Friday. A short wave riding along the northern periphery of the ridge and subsequent dry, post-frontal winds could present a fire weather concern across the High Plains of northern Montana on Day 4/Thursday, but recent precipitation and expected state of fuels should reduce wildfire spread potential so critical probabilities were withheld. Model guidance consensus shows an overall eastward accelerating wave pattern by the weekend ushering in the next trough into the Western U.S. for Day 7-8/Sunday-Monday. Supportive upper-level dynamics ahead of the trough interacting with residual mid-level moisture will support faster moving thunderstorms with limited rainfall across the Great Basin and portions of the Intermountain West. However, current green-up phase of fuels should limit ignition efficiency. In addition, increasing southwest flow ahead of the trough supports a broad fire weather concern across the Great Basin/Southwest Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, but ensemble member spread remains high enough, particularly with timing of trough, to preclude critical probabilities at this time. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more