Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... A mid-level blocking pattern will start to break down during the day 2 period with the mid-level low in the Southwest and the Ohio Valley starting to advance east-northeast. A weak surface low will linger near the eastern Great Lakes through the period on Tuesday. Broad low pressure will persist across Texas with a sharpening dryline during the afternoon across central Texas and a warm front extending from northeast Texas into northern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. ...Mid Atlantic to Northeast... Upper 50s to near 60s dewpoints will advect north across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast on Tuesday. This, combined with some surface heating and cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper low, should support weak to moderate instability. Scattered strong to severe storms are expected during the afternoon/early evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Central/Eastern Texas into LA and southern MS... A cluster of supercells or MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across central Texas. This will continue to pose a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts through the morning as it moves along a warm front in the region. As the warm front continues to advect inland, destabilization will occur ahead of this ongoing convection. This will likely result in additional development along the warm front and also on the southern end of the ongoing activity. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. In addition, a few tornadoes are possible with any supercells which can remain rooted within the warm sector. In the wake of the morning activity in central Texas, surface heating is expected along the dryline in central Texas during the afternoon. It is unclear whether substantial recovery will occur for additional supercell development in this region during the afternoon/evening, but if supercells develop they will pose a threat for large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Northwest Texas Vicinity... As morning convection/cloud cover clears out to the northeast, substantial heating may occur beneath the upper low for some low-topped supercell development along an occluded front which will extend from central Texas into northwest Texas. These storms will be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. ...South Texas... Isolated supercells are possible along the dryline Tuesday afternoon/evening. Extreme instability and very strong shear will support supercells capable of very large hail with any sustained supercells that form. However, only weak height falls during the afternoon and limited convergence along the dryline, as low-level flow veers across the warm sector, should keep supercells development isolated. The HRRR has more robust convective development with storms off higher terrain in northern Mexico and additional development in South Texas. Should this occur, higher hail/wind probabilities would be necessary given the environment. However, forcing does not support this scenario with height rises across South Texas and a low-level jet focused across Louisiana/southern Mississippi. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2025 Read more

WW 0223 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0223 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 5 17:05:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z No changes necessary to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook as forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Williams.. 05/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will persist across parts of the northern Plains with more localized fire weather potential expected across parts of southwest TX this afternoon. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly winds will continue across the northern Plains ahead of a southward advancing cold front for much of the day. Diurnal heating and mixing will promote a slight uptick in wind speeds across eastern ND and northwest MN by late afternoon. Most guidance suggests winds near 15 mph are likely, which should be sufficient to promote fire spread given afternoon RH minimums near 20% and receptive fine fuels already in place (as evidenced by fire activity over the past two days). ...Southwest Texas... 06 UTC surface observations and RTMA analyses show a developing dryline extending from south-central NM southeastward along the Rio Grande. This boundary is expected to mix northeast through late afternoon as southwesterly winds increase to 15-20 mph. The 00 UTC EPZ sounding sampled this dry air mass with near-surface RH values in the low teens. Similar RH minimums are expected this afternoon across southwest TX behind the dryline, which when combined with breezy winds, should promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile along the Rio Grande should support the fire threat. Although thunderstorm development is possible across the region, recent CAM guidance suggests convection will most likely remain east of the Elevated risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more