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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Mainly zonal mid-level flow through the middle of the week will give way to upper ridging in the Plains as mid-level troughs deepen across the western and eastern U.S. by the end of the week. By the weekend into early next week, the western mid-level trough will de-amplify while progressing toward the Plains. Surface high pressure will build across the central and northern U.S. through the week, while a surface low will encourage the northward return of moisture across the southern Plains by the end of the week toward the weekend. Overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected through most of the extended range. The largest concern for future significant wildfire-spread potential remains across portions of the Southwest, where prolonged warm and dry conditions will support the continued curing of fuels. Disagreement remains among medium-range guidance members in terms of the evolution of the de-amplifying western upper trough by the weekend. Stronger surface winds may develop over parts of the Southwest by the weekend, but confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0878 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0878 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into eastern Georgia and western South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191819Z - 192015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the southern Appalachians are expected to propagate southeastward into eastern Georgia and western South Carolina through the afternoon. These storms may pose a severe hail/damaging wind threat through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible imagery shows the early signs of convective development along and ahead of an outflow boundary associated with a dying convective cluster across northern GA and and extreme southeast TN/southwest NC. Downstream of this activity, temperatures are warming into the upper 70s and low 80s, which is quickly eroding MLCIN and promoting MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg to the west of a diffuse baroclinic zone. Thunderstorms will likely intensify as they propagate along the boundary to the southeast. Along-boundary deep-layer shear on the order of 40-50 knots will promote storm organization, potentially into a few supercells, with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds. It remains unclear whether storm mode will remain primarily cellular with large hail as the predominant threat, or if upscale growth into an organized cluster can occur with a more widespread wind threat. Regardless, the severe threat is expected to increase through the late afternoon hours, and watch issuance is possible if convection begins to pose a robust/widespread threat. ..Moore/Hart.. 05/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 33308203 34348494 34648521 35008510 35488469 35468399 34428105 34128090 33798089 33468117 33318154 33278173 33308203 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TENNESSEE INTO WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Significant severe weather is likely from the central/southern Plains into the the Ozarks today into tonight. All severe weather hazards are expected, to include tornadoes (some potentially strong to intense), very large hail, and severe winds. ...20Z Update... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is still anticipated this afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough ejecting from the central/southern High Plains into the central/southern Plains, where a very moist and unstable airmass is in place. Recent surface analysis shows low 70s dewpoints across much of central and eastern OK, with mid 60s dewpoints as far north as southeast NE. Both the 18Z OUN and OAX soundings sampled cold mid-level temperatures and associated steep mid-level lapse rates. Ample moisture beneath these steep lapse rates is supporting very strong buoyancy. 18Z OUN sounding reported MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg. Storms that developed earlier this afternoon across central OK are now moving into southeast KS. These storms have maintained their elevated character thus far, but some transition to a more surface-based character is possible as destabilization continues downstream. More surface-based, cellular development has initiated across south-central OK and adjacent far northeast OK. Airmass downstream is favorable for storm maintenance as they track east-northeastward. All severe hazards are possible with these storms, including very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes. Convergence along the dryline is modest now, but will likely increase later this afternoon and evening. Expectation is for another round of supercells capable of all hazards (i.e. very large hail, strong wind gusts, and strong to intense tornadoes) moving from southwest OK/far northwest TX into central/south-central OK and adjacent north-central TX. Large-scale ascent will increase across eastern KS and southeast NE as well, with thunderstorms capable of all hazards expected across this region as well. By this evening, there will likely be a nearly continuous line of thunderstorms from southeast NE/southwest IA into north-central TX. A mix of supercells and bowing segments will maintain the risk of significant severe weather throughout the evening and tonight, continuing into early tomorrow morning from the Mid-MS Valley into the Arklatex. Guidance has trended towards more favorable environmental conditions for a greater severe risk across southeast MO tonight, Wind and tornado probabilities were increased across this region as a result. ..Mosier.. 05/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025/ A powerful upper trough over the southern Rockies will eject into the Plains today, with an associated 70-80 knot mid level jet nosing into OK. Meanwhile, the primary surface low will deepen over northwest OK and a southerly low-level jet will strengthen across the warm sector. The resulting synoptic pattern is very favorable for significant severe weather over portions of OK/AR/MO/KS, with the potential for strong tornadoes, very large hail, and widespread damaging winds. However, the mesoscale details of the forecast result in considerable uncertainty regarding the corridors of greatest risk. ...Eastern OK/Western AR/Southwest MO... A southern stream shortwave trough over TX will track northeastward today. Large scale ascent ahead of this feature will weaken the cap and likely lead to rather widespread convective development by early afternoon over much eastern OK and western AR. Forecast soundings in this area show a very unstable air mass and favorable low and deep layer shear profiles for supercell development. All severe hazards are possible, including strong tornadoes. Refer to MCD #874 for further details. ...North TX/Central OK/Eastern KS/southeast NE... Behind the aforementioned convective development, a pronounced dryline will become established from west-central OK into central KS. Strong heating along and west of the dryline, combined with dewpoints near 70f to the east, will result in extreme instability and only a weak cap. Large-scale mid-level height falls/forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper trough over the southern Rockies will lead to discrete/intense supercell development by mid/late afternoon - potentially along the entire length from north TX into KS. These storms will pose a risk of very large hail and strong tornadoes through the early evening. Farther north in northeast KS and southeast NE, the Pacific cold front will impinge on the dryline, aiding convective development but perhaps leading to more linear forcing. Nevertheless, large hail and tornadoes will still be possible. Read more