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WW 596 SEVERE TSTM AR KS MO OK 180740Z - 181500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 596 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Arkansas Southeastern Kansas Southwestern Missouri Northeastern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday morning from 240 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A complex of sporadically severe thunderstorms may maintain or even enlarge its influence as it moves into a favorably moist/unstable environment across the watch area through local midmorning hours. Damaging/severe gusts will remain the main hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of Tulsa OK to 70 miles north of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 594...WW 595... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Edwards Read more

MD 1785 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1785 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin...southern Lake Michigan...northern Indiana...and southwest Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 181044Z - 181215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Organized cluster of thunderstorms continue east this morning across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. A gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity through the morning should result in the need for a severe thunderstorm watch at some point this morning. DISCUSSION...Well-organized cluster of thunderstorms is moving east across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois this morning. This activity is located to the southeast of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) located to the east of Minneapolis. Despite recent measured winds being below severe criteria, this cluster of storms is moving into an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment, where most-unstable CAPE values are around 2500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is being augmented by the circulation associated with the MCV and is between 35-45 knots. Further destabilization of the atmosphere is expected with the onset of diurnal heating, which should act to remove convective inhibition by mid morning. Thus, a gradual increase in thunderstorm intensity is expected through the morning, with an attendant increase in the threat for damaging thunderstorm winds and hail. Additionally, more isolated thunderstorms are developing farther east along the northern edge of the better low-level moisture. As the airmass further destabilizes, the severe potential of these thunderstorms should also increase. Therefore, the region will be monitored for a severe thunderstorm watch, which appears likely sometime this morning. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 43539011 42728538 40658564 41089110 43539011 Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-015-087-143-180940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CARROLL MADISON WASHINGTON KSC011-021-037-107-180940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LINN MOC009-011-013-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-145- 167-185-209-217-225-180940- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON BATES CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an unstable air mass will remain in place from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Cooler and drier air will gradually spread southeastward across this region behind a cold front, roughly oriented east-west north of the OH River by late afternoon. Scattered storms are likely within this zone, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds especially from OH eastward to the coast in closer proximity to the stronger shear. Given the likelihood of ongoing storms Wednesday morning, predictability is currently too low to denote a 15% or greater corridor, but upgrades are possible in later outlooks. To the west, another corridor of storms is likely from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley, beneath weaker winds aloft and along a stationary front and/or outflow boundaries, most likely from KS into MO. At least marginal severe storms will be possible during the day. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Thursday/D5, providing stable conditions across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will result in lax flow over much of the CONUS until another trough amplification occurs during the Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 time frame, with strong northwest flow affecting the northern Rockies/Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return to the Plains as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, with a plume of 65-70 F surface dewpoints likely across the Plains and as far north as the Dakotas and MN. Predictability is certainly too low for this scenario, but severe storms may be possible over the northern Plains at that time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an unstable air mass will remain in place from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Cooler and drier air will gradually spread southeastward across this region behind a cold front, roughly oriented east-west north of the OH River by late afternoon. Scattered storms are likely within this zone, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds especially from OH eastward to the coast in closer proximity to the stronger shear. Given the likelihood of ongoing storms Wednesday morning, predictability is currently too low to denote a 15% or greater corridor, but upgrades are possible in later outlooks. To the west, another corridor of storms is likely from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley, beneath weaker winds aloft and along a stationary front and/or outflow boundaries, most likely from KS into MO. At least marginal severe storms will be possible during the day. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Thursday/D5, providing stable conditions across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will result in lax flow over much of the CONUS until another trough amplification occurs during the Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 time frame, with strong northwest flow affecting the northern Rockies/Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return to the Plains as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, with a plume of 65-70 F surface dewpoints likely across the Plains and as far north as the Dakotas and MN. Predictability is certainly too low for this scenario, but severe storms may be possible over the northern Plains at that time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, an unstable air mass will remain in place from the mid MS Valley across the OH Valley as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. Cooler and drier air will gradually spread southeastward across this region behind a cold front, roughly oriented east-west north of the OH River by late afternoon. Scattered storms are likely within this zone, and a few storms could be severe with damaging winds especially from OH eastward to the coast in closer proximity to the stronger shear. Given the likelihood of ongoing storms Wednesday morning, predictability is currently too low to denote a 15% or greater corridor, but upgrades are possible in later outlooks. To the west, another corridor of storms is likely from the central Plains to the mid MS Valley, beneath weaker winds aloft and along a stationary front and/or outflow boundaries, most likely from KS into MO. At least marginal severe storms will be possible during the day. The upper trough will move across the Northeast on Thursday/D5, providing stable conditions across the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This will result in lax flow over much of the CONUS until another trough amplification occurs during the Saturday/D7 and Sunday/D8 time frame, with strong northwest flow affecting the northern Rockies/Plains, Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Southerly winds will return to the Plains as high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, with a plume of 65-70 F surface dewpoints likely across the Plains and as far north as the Dakotas and MN. Predictability is certainly too low for this scenario, but severe storms may be possible over the northern Plains at that time. Read more

MD 1784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1784 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...far northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri...and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 180745Z - 180945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri this morning. These thunderstorms will be capable of hail and gusty winds. A watch is not currently expected, but conditions will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, likely in response to ascent stemming from the ageostrophic mass response to the thunderstorms across central Kansas. This is suggested by broad region of surface pressure falls the last few hours. The airmass here is moderately to very unstable with most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is sufficient for promoting thunderstorm updraft/downdraft organization, thus a severe hail or wind threat cannot be ruled out this morning. One negative for a more widespread severe event will be the expanding precipitation shield from the mesoscale convective system to the southwest. This may act to limit the overall instability available locally to thunderstorm updrafts, resulting in a more isolated/episodic severe potential, rather than a sustained one. Given the uncertainty, the need for a watch is unclear. Presently a watch is currently not expected, but conditions will continue to be maintained. ..Marsh/Edwards.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38569543 39699548 41669395 41159148 38589398 38569543 Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0596 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS...EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN INDIANA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds and hail are possible over Illinois and parts of surrounding states, and over much of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will pivot southeastward across MB and ON, with 30-40 kt midlevel winds across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Heights will gradually lower well ahead of this feature, from the mid MO Valley across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic by Wed morning. Cool temperatures aloft for this time of year with -10 C at 500 mb will extend as far south as KS, MO, and KY. Meanwhile, a moist and very unstable air mass will remain over a large part of the central Plains, Midwest, and OH Valley, conditionally favoring severe storms. ...IL...eastern MO...western IN... Extreme instability is forecast to develop with 700-500 lapse rates around 8 C/km, and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, west-northwest mean deep-layer winds will increase to 30-35 kt, with lightly veering winds in the low-levels. Storms may be ongoing early in the day over parts of IA, but will expand in coverage into IL by midday as the air mass will already be uncapped. A forward propagating MCS is likely, capable of destructive winds. Models are not in complete agreement with this scenario due to weak forcing, but such extreme instability with steep lapse rates, high precipitable water and good flow aloft will conditionally favor damaging winds, perhaps widespread. Further categorical upgrades are possible in later outlooks. ...Much of NE... Surface winds will back to southeasterly during the day, which will maintain 70s F dewpoints. Capping will be an issue over eastern portions of the state, but western parts of the state as well as eastern WY will become uncapped by late afternoon, where initiation will occur. Large to extreme instability with weak but veering winds with height suggest brief supercells with eventual mergers into bowing segments. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of development. Additional storms are expected eastward across the state by evening with low-level warm advection. ...KY and OH eastward into MD... Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain a high theta-e air mass from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic, beneath cooling temperatures aloft. Heating will result in an uncapped air mass by afternoon, with a weak surface trough providing a focus for scattered storms within the theta-e plume. Shear will remain weak especially over eastern areas, but pulse and/or multicell storms are possible, producing locally damaging winds. If later forecasts confidently suggest more concentrated areas of storms, parts of the region could be upgraded to a Slight Risk for wind. ..Jewell.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS...EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN INDIANA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds and hail are possible over Illinois and parts of surrounding states, and over much of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will pivot southeastward across MB and ON, with 30-40 kt midlevel winds across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Heights will gradually lower well ahead of this feature, from the mid MO Valley across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic by Wed morning. Cool temperatures aloft for this time of year with -10 C at 500 mb will extend as far south as KS, MO, and KY. Meanwhile, a moist and very unstable air mass will remain over a large part of the central Plains, Midwest, and OH Valley, conditionally favoring severe storms. ...IL...eastern MO...western IN... Extreme instability is forecast to develop with 700-500 lapse rates around 8 C/km, and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, west-northwest mean deep-layer winds will increase to 30-35 kt, with lightly veering winds in the low-levels. Storms may be ongoing early in the day over parts of IA, but will expand in coverage into IL by midday as the air mass will already be uncapped. A forward propagating MCS is likely, capable of destructive winds. Models are not in complete agreement with this scenario due to weak forcing, but such extreme instability with steep lapse rates, high precipitable water and good flow aloft will conditionally favor damaging winds, perhaps widespread. Further categorical upgrades are possible in later outlooks. ...Much of NE... Surface winds will back to southeasterly during the day, which will maintain 70s F dewpoints. Capping will be an issue over eastern portions of the state, but western parts of the state as well as eastern WY will become uncapped by late afternoon, where initiation will occur. Large to extreme instability with weak but veering winds with height suggest brief supercells with eventual mergers into bowing segments. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of development. Additional storms are expected eastward across the state by evening with low-level warm advection. ...KY and OH eastward into MD... Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain a high theta-e air mass from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic, beneath cooling temperatures aloft. Heating will result in an uncapped air mass by afternoon, with a weak surface trough providing a focus for scattered storms within the theta-e plume. Shear will remain weak especially over eastern areas, but pulse and/or multicell storms are possible, producing locally damaging winds. If later forecasts confidently suggest more concentrated areas of storms, parts of the region could be upgraded to a Slight Risk for wind. ..Jewell.. 08/18/2019 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS...EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN INDIANA...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with damaging winds and hail are possible over Illinois and parts of surrounding states, and over much of Nebraska. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will pivot southeastward across MB and ON, with 30-40 kt midlevel winds across the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. Heights will gradually lower well ahead of this feature, from the mid MO Valley across the OH Valley and toward the Mid Atlantic by Wed morning. Cool temperatures aloft for this time of year with -10 C at 500 mb will extend as far south as KS, MO, and KY. Meanwhile, a moist and very unstable air mass will remain over a large part of the central Plains, Midwest, and OH Valley, conditionally favoring severe storms. ...IL...eastern MO...western IN... Extreme instability is forecast to develop with 700-500 lapse rates around 8 C/km, and mid 70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, west-northwest mean deep-layer winds will increase to 30-35 kt, with lightly veering winds in the low-levels. Storms may be ongoing early in the day over parts of IA, but will expand in coverage into IL by midday as the air mass will already be uncapped. A forward propagating MCS is likely, capable of destructive winds. Models are not in complete agreement with this scenario due to weak forcing, but such extreme instability with steep lapse rates, high precipitable water and good flow aloft will conditionally favor damaging winds, perhaps widespread. Further categorical upgrades are possible in later outlooks. ...Much of NE... Surface winds will back to southeasterly during the day, which will maintain 70s F dewpoints. Capping will be an issue over eastern portions of the state, but western parts of the state as well as eastern WY will become uncapped by late afternoon, where initiation will occur. Large to extreme instability with weak but veering winds with height suggest brief supercells with eventual mergers into bowing segments. Both large hail and damaging winds will be possible, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the early stages of development. Additional storms are expected eastward across the state by evening with low-level warm advection. ...KY and OH eastward into MD... Southwesterly low-level winds will maintain a high theta-e air mass from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic, beneath cooling temperatures aloft. Heating will result in an uncapped air mass by afternoon, with a weak surface trough providing a focus for scattered storms within the theta-e plume. Shear will remain weak especially over eastern areas, but pulse and/or multicell storms are possible, producing locally damaging winds. If later forecasts confidently suggest more concentrated areas of storms, parts of the region could be upgraded to a Slight Risk for wind. ..Jewell.. 08/18/2019 Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0594 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW HLC TO 25 ENE RSL TO 10 ESE SLN TO 40 SE SLN TO 15 NW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783. ..MARSH..08/18/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 594 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-009-015-017-019-031-035-049-051-053-073-079-095-111-113- 115-135-145-155-159-165-167-169-173-185-191-195-180740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BARTON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK ELLIS ELLSWORTH GREENWOOD HARVEY KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 594 SEVERE TSTM KS 180125Z - 180800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 825 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Kansas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 825 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but well-organized cluster of storms across northwest Kansas early this evening will continue east-southeastward with additional storms expected to develop near/ahead of it through late evening. Large hail and locally damaging winds can initially be expected with this activity, with a more certain potential for damaging winds given the possibility of an expanding/organizing linear cluster across central Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles south southwest of Hill City KS to 35 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 590...WW 592...WW 593... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1783 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... FOR KANSAS...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1783 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Areas affected...Kansas...northeast Oklahoma...southwest Missouri...and extreme northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594...595... Valid 180642Z - 180815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 594, 595 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms continue across much of Kansas this morning. The leading edge of the thunderstorms continues to push toward northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. Gusty thunderstorm winds and hail will be the primary severe threat with these storms. A new watch is being considered for portions of northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. DISCUSSION...Another round of thunderstorms is ongoing across much of Kansas this morning. The convection has organized itself into another "bow and arrow" mesoscale convective system (MCS). The leading edge of this MCS (the bow) is quickly moving southeast toward far southeast Kansas, northeast Oklahoma, and southwest Missouri. The environment along and ahead of this bow is characterized by deep-layer shear on the order of 40 knots and most-unstable CAPE values around 2000-2500 J/kg. Additionally, mixed-layer convective inhibition actually weakens the farther east this MCS moves. Thus a continuation of severe potential in areas outside of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #594 is possible. As such, a new watch is being considered. Upstream from the bow, the "arrow" thunderstorms across central Kansas will continue within a moderately unstable and sufficiently sheared airmass to continue the potential for hail and gusty winds for at least another few hours. Therefore an extension in time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #584 may be needed. ..Marsh.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37339724 38569607 37429348 36099474 37339724 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to strengthen and amplify over the western CONUS tomorrow. Much of the Intermountain West will remain hot/dry, and large-scale flow will be relatively weak across the region. A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the northern Rockies during the day, which could help initiate isolated dry thunderstorms across southwest Montana/vicinity. However, with heights generally rising across the region and forecast relatively dry (precipitable water values of 0.4-0.6") and stable conditions (ML/MUCAPE < 250 J/kg) conditions, an area was not introduced. ..Nauslar.. 08/18/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more